North Korea test nukes
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So it would seem.
Some sceptics are calling this one a fake or a failure, though, with yields measuring 6-7kt when the smallest design they were (alledgedly) sold was 12kt. We'll have to wait and see. Regardless, if the North Koreans kept at it, they were/are bound to get it right eventually.
Some sceptics are calling this one a fake or a failure, though, with yields measuring 6-7kt when the smallest design they were (alledgedly) sold was 12kt. We'll have to wait and see. Regardless, if the North Koreans kept at it, they were/are bound to get it right eventually.
I'm wondering where they are getting the fissionable material. No respectable country would want or allow them to go nuclear, people in the Middle East would want it for themselves and not to sell, and it's not widely available enough for some of it to just go missing. So where would they get the materials to make one?
And how would they fake it? Detonating normal ordnance? That would be pretty expensive for a normal bluff.
And how would they fake it? Detonating normal ordnance? That would be pretty expensive for a normal bluff.
They have an indigenous supply. The process and equipment (gas centrifuges) is dual use, and can be used to produce civilian nuclear fuel or weapons grade materials. Hence non-proliferation efforts tend to target this enrichment capacity. That's what the hubbub was about with iranian nuclear refining capabilities, with the iranians claiming it was for peaceful purposes. North Korea has high quality uranium and graphite deposits, and have been building up their own enrichment capacity.
The current estimate is that NK has enough Plutonium for about a dozen warheads, but could get a lot more of it (with considerable technological risks) if the experimental light water reactor at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, supposedly used for civilian nuclear power purposes, was paired with their gas centrifuge cascades and dedicated to produce weapons-grade Plutonium instead. The other option for them would be to go the high-enriched (weapons grade) Uranium route instead, with some speculation that they may have switched their nuclear weapons program towards it. They have one centrifuge plant at Yongbyon, with indications that there may be another one someplace else.
http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/dprk_fissile_material_production_16Aug2012.pdf
Regarding using conventional explosives to fake this test, the costs of doing so would not be very extensive. 6 million kilograms of TNT-equivalent costs about the same as a single fighter jet (according to quick googling). If they had decided to bluff the world into thinking they had nuclear weapons, it would not have been the expense of the conventional explosives that held them back from doing so.
While the rhetoric has been ratcheting up, many commentators were saying that it's not too bad, as one of the key indicators they pay attention to suggests the north are still operating business as usual. This indicator is whether the Kaesong Industrial Park is open.
The Kaesong Industrail Park is located in North Korea just on the border with South Korea, and allows South Korean companies to hire cheap North Korean labor at the complex. This provides significant income to the North Korean government and economy, and its believed that the North will never close it and live without that income unless they are serious about cutting ties with the south.
Today the border stopped allowing South Korean workers, managers, and supply trucks through the border destined for that industrial complex. They have not kicked South Koreans currently at the complex out, but they are allowing them to leave back to South Korea if they choose.
For a lot of pundits this was the only thing keeping them from saying that North Korea is acting any differently than it has every year it's performed the usual saber rattling.
The last time the border was shut down was in 2009, and lasted 24 hours. Pundits are suggesting that we wait a day or two before adding too much into this, expecting it will open back up.
If it doesn't, and the North really is closing its borders in a way that hurts them financially and economically, expect to see another significant step up in the believed seriousness of the situation.[DOUBLEPOST=1364999305][/DOUBLEPOST]Note, however, that in the past usually the north ratchets up the propaganda, performs a few shows of defiance, then "reluctantly" comes to the table and asks for and receives food or other aid in exchange for a few minor concessions, like shutting down the nuclear plant. Again.
Even though both sides are readying for possible military action, most people still expect the same outcome.
That said, should the North lose their mind, they are capable of decimating Seoul using conventional weapons in a matter of minutes, so their threats are not idle.
The Kaesong Industrail Park is located in North Korea just on the border with South Korea, and allows South Korean companies to hire cheap North Korean labor at the complex. This provides significant income to the North Korean government and economy, and its believed that the North will never close it and live without that income unless they are serious about cutting ties with the south.
Today the border stopped allowing South Korean workers, managers, and supply trucks through the border destined for that industrial complex. They have not kicked South Koreans currently at the complex out, but they are allowing them to leave back to South Korea if they choose.
For a lot of pundits this was the only thing keeping them from saying that North Korea is acting any differently than it has every year it's performed the usual saber rattling.
The last time the border was shut down was in 2009, and lasted 24 hours. Pundits are suggesting that we wait a day or two before adding too much into this, expecting it will open back up.
If it doesn't, and the North really is closing its borders in a way that hurts them financially and economically, expect to see another significant step up in the believed seriousness of the situation.[DOUBLEPOST=1364999305][/DOUBLEPOST]Note, however, that in the past usually the north ratchets up the propaganda, performs a few shows of defiance, then "reluctantly" comes to the table and asks for and receives food or other aid in exchange for a few minor concessions, like shutting down the nuclear plant. Again.
Even though both sides are readying for possible military action, most people still expect the same outcome.
That said, should the North lose their mind, they are capable of decimating Seoul using conventional weapons in a matter of minutes, so their threats are not idle.
Yep, 14,000 pre-aimed pieces of artillery. They could really decimate South Korea for several days before we could silence those guns.
Eh....more likes hours instead of days.
We have enough force in South Korea and in Japan that it wouldn't take long to silence most of the ground based stations, and chances are good that our intelligences is decent enough that we already have weaponry aimed at most of the installations such that it would take minutes to stop the majority of the attack, long before we had aircraft in the air identifying and clearing out additional installations we weren't aware of, or didn't consider a big enough threat to keep targeted.
Still, it would be an incredibly stupid move on North Korea's part to attempt such an attack. It would essentially be a free pass for the US and UN to come in and destroy their infrastructure and military capability. I think they understand that they have really been testing China's patience, and China isn't liable to keep backing them up and supporting them.
Still, it would be an incredibly stupid move on North Korea's part to attempt such an attack. It would essentially be a free pass for the US and UN to come in and destroy their infrastructure and military capability. I think they understand that they have really been testing China's patience, and China isn't liable to keep backing them up and supporting them.
Probably. It's really going to depend on how long the Generals are willing to put up with a 30 year old running the country.
Honestly, they are just hurting themselves. However, what I want to see is China's next move. If they keep giving North Korea food then nothing we do matters and business will be as usual. However, if they put their foot down and stop their shipments then North Korea will need to put up or shut up.
"And that's how Anonymous started World War III":
Anonymous hacks into two of North Korea's government-run websites
Anonymous hacks into two of North Korea's government-run websites
...how does that EVER seem like a good idea?
Yeah that's effing awesome
I like how the bush administration had concrete evidence that North Korea possessed weapons grade plutonium, compared to the relatively poor evidence that Iraq possessed significant weapons of mass destruction, and chose to attack Iraq rather than North Korea.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/2004-01-21-nkorea-nukes_x.htm
Now we could be doing a diplomatic dance again. North Korea is up in the is polls, and over forty percent of polled Americans believe they pose a significant immediate threat to the US. North Korea has spent years trying to get the US to the negotiating table directly, whereas the US has always insisted on a multilateral approach.
This is the closest they've come to the line, and the closest they've come to getting enough of our attention that we might actually sit down with them directly to negotiate.
So far things seem to be working according to their desires.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/2004-01-21-nkorea-nukes_x.htm
Now we could be doing a diplomatic dance again. North Korea is up in the is polls, and over forty percent of polled Americans believe they pose a significant immediate threat to the US. North Korea has spent years trying to get the US to the negotiating table directly, whereas the US has always insisted on a multilateral approach.
This is the closest they've come to the line, and the closest they've come to getting enough of our attention that we might actually sit down with them directly to negotiate.
So far things seem to be working according to their desires.
GasBandit
Staff member
Iraq wasn't a client state of China. If we invaded north korea, it stood an excellent chance of igniting world war 3.
And of course we knew they had nuclear capabilities - Bill Clinton gave it to them.
That is, the US was not interested in pandering to north korea as if they were an equal. We wanted talks that involved all the nations involved (usually 6 way talks with china, south korea, russia and japan), to make it crystal clear that north korea is not our equal, and there are other people in the area rather put out with them.
This time might be different as there are signs that even china is getting sick and tired of NORK's shit.
I think sixpackshaker may have the right of it. The problem is the sheer number of DPRK artillery pieces and the fact that they've had all the time in the world to entrench. Taking out the majority of DPRK positions is difficult without heavy ordnance, and for ROK and USA to silence a significant number of them within minutes sounds optimistic in the extreme, as the requisite quantities of ordnance and delivery methods do not exist. Many of the DPRK artillery positions can potentially be suppressed by counterbattery fire from lighter assets which are available in greater numbers, but the suppression fire would need to be determined and continuous, as barring a lucky direct hit (which might silence one gun) the position will spring back to life within minutes after the shelling lifts. Again, the problem is the number of DPRK artillery.
If this comes down to a fight, then I guess Seoul and the South's industrial areas near the border will receive heavy shelling until ROK ground forces get past the DMZ and push DPRK artillery units out of range. This may take a couple of days. After that it will be open season for ROK and USA, as though there are a couple of fortified areas where the fighting is likely to get heavy, the DPRK rear area seems to be geared towards pushing troops and suppies forward in an attack, rather than a defensive arrangement designed to delay an advancing enemy.
I'm not sure North Korea is going to attack, regardless of their belligerent rehtoric. They can't win, and they know it. I think this affair will be diffused in due course, as nobody, not South Korea, nor China, and certainly not the US will want to be saddled with the financial cost of feeding 25 million North Korean beggars and uplifting a country with a dirt-poor economy and infrastructure.
I'm not sure things would have gotten quite that far. Though there was (and still is) a risk that without a chinese okay on the matter, US aerial operations close to the chinese border might receive some fire from chinese air defences, or a general blue-on-blue incident. And that would have too much risk involved.
I think bilateral negotiations would very likely be in North Korean interests, though many of the reasons for that may be geopolitic. DPRK borders both China and Russia, and major powers generally don't like other major powers messing around in their neighbourhood unless they have a say in the matter to make sure their own interests are not compromised. For any arrangement regarding North Korea to work, particularly China will need to want it to work. Otherwise the arrangement won't be worth much more than the paper it's written on, as then DPRK will always have a back door, should they decide that holding up their end of the bargain with the USA is no longer convenient.
Necronic
Staff member
The greatest trick anonymous ever pulled was convincing the world that they are elite hackers. Taking down a website is the burning-bag-of-dogpoop-on-the-front-door of hacking.
Ed: LulzSec on the other hand...
I try to be a patient person, but I have zero patience for the hero-worship or ridiculous fear Anonymous elicits from certain people. I just sigh in exasperation, unwilling even to explain.
I should probably stop hero worshiping his holy sexieness Chad "the hammer is my penis" Sexington
Also my phone tries to auto fill GasBandit after I say penis and that sounds dirty
Wait, what, no. NO! CONTINUE TO WORSHIP
You realize that LulzSec is just an offshoot of Anon who decided to label themselves correct?
statements like ties to Anon are why pretty much every thread talking about Anon is dumb as hell.
Necronic
Staff member
It's more clear to say "Ties to Anon" than "Posts on 4Chan"
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