The Fall of Libya

Status
Not open for further replies.
I

Iaculus

So the collapse of the Egyptian government wasn't an isolated incident - things have been getting pretty crazy in Libya, too.

Let's make a list, shall we?
  • The Libyan Air Force have started bombing protesters.
  • Foreign mercenaries have been brought in for (lethal) crowd-control.
  • The country's entire UN delegation have spoken out against Gaddafi and requested immediate UN intervention to prevent 'genocide'.
  • Gaddafi himself is rumoured to have fled to Venezuela, and even if he hasn't, a good number of high-profile folks from the Libyan government certainly have.
  • The president's son has stated the government's intent to fight to 'the last bullet'.
  • Most of the country is now considered to be no longer under Gaddafi's control.
  • Gaddafi is rumoured to have ordered airstrikes on his own army bases in order to deny protesters military materiel.
  • EU citizens are being shuttled out of the country.
  • The UK has 'ambitious plans' for assistance to Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia, according to Foreign Secretary William Hague.
  • Italy has placed its airbases on maximum alert. No prizes for guessing why.
  • The US is requesting that any citizens currently in Libya either get the hell out of there or seek shelter and bunker down if that's not an option.
  • Nine staff-members of the Libyan embassy in London have joined the protests outside the building.
  • Fighting has broken out west of Tripoli between Gaddafi loyalists and the regular military.
  • Two Libyan Air Force jets have landed in Malta, their pilots having defected after being ordered to bomb civilians.
Interesting times, folks. Interesting times.
 
strawman

strawman

Wars and rumors of wars, eh?

I have to admit I'm not doing much this:aaah: and am instead tending towards:popcorn:.

On the other hand, a number of URL shorteners and useful services have used the ly tld for services I use (bit.ly, post.ly, etc).

On the other other hand, I have to admit that the possible injuries I may suffer pale in comparison to what the people in that area are going through.
 
I

Iaculus

I think that Apache gunships firing on protest marches warrants a little bit of
.
 
strawman

strawman

Iaculus said:
I think that Apache gunships firing on protest marches warrants a little bit of :aaah:.
Click to expand...
Unless they were firing explosive munitions, they aren't as "effective" as a group of security soldiers firing automatic weapons at demonstrators. A 50mm round from a helicopter gunship is devastating, but only to those (few) things it actually hits. I point this out only because it's easy to assume helicopter gunship is always more excessive force than troops.

There are six million people in libya - a fraction of the number of people living in Michigan, but Michigan is 1/7 the size of libya. I didn't see how many demonstrators there were last week, but there were reports of fewer than 100 dead. More dead after the funeral demonstrations.
 
Dave

Dave

Staff member
A couple of fighter pilots were ordered to bomb protesters. Instead they flew to Malta & defected, telling their stories. Several helicopters have also made the trip and there's rumors of mass defections by military folks.

I worry about these areas, though. With a vacuum of power there's surely someone there who wants to step in and fill it.
 
T

TheBrew

This is all pretty intense stuff. I hope that it starts to get better and not worse.
 
sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker

This could get an Euro intervention. I don't think the #1 source of oil to Europe going nuts will have the EU standing around wringing their hands like they did in Sudan and Rwanda.
 
strawman

strawman

On one hand, it's sad that nations only get help if they have interesting resources.

On the other hand, it's sad that nations with enviable resources are practically invaded by their "helpers" the instant they show signs of instability.
 
sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker

The danger for the citizens traveling to Tripoli to fight, is that they are going to be crossing 100's of miles of open country. Just one loyal fighter/helicopter pilot can make that a really messy scene. Just check the '91 Gulf War Highway of Death images.
 
sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker

I'd rather we do not put boots on the ground, ourselves and Italy should deny airspace to the Libyan military though. If anyone puts boots on the ground it should be the Brits, Italians, EU in general, the UN, or the the Arab League.
 
SpecialKO

SpecialKO

sixpackshaker said:
I'd rather we do not put boots on the ground, ourselves and Italy should deny airspace to the Libyan military though. If anyone puts boots on the ground it should be the Brits, Italians, EU in general, the UN, or the the Arab League.
Click to expand...
I have to agree. Given the current state of geopolitics, it should not be us on the ground. Much as we might wish it otherwise, a US ground force might onnly contribute to the regional instability and hurt us in other diplomatic efforts.

A carrier group offshore handling logistics, containment, critical medical supplies, and providing support to a sanctioned international ground force, on the other hand, I would be okay with.
 
TommiR

TommiR

I'm not sure that will come to pass, at least not as far as EU countries are concerned. Trade sanctions, perhaps. Peacekeepers to monitor the situation, sure. But I don't see the leaders of EU countries having the political will to send in an actively interventionist force to interfere in what, at present, is seen as an internal libyan matter. And I think the situation needs to get a lot worse before the UN will contemplate sanctioning an intervention on humanitarian grounds; nobody is going to send anybody anywhere over a few hundred dead.


Here is a statement from the UN Security Council on the libyan affair. I am told it is strongly worded.

The members of the Security Council were briefed on the situation in Libya by B. Lynn Pascoe, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, and the Permanent Representative of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, whose Mission had requested a meeting of the Security Council.

The members of the Security Council welcomed the statement issued by the League of Arab States on 22 February 2011.

The members of the Security Council expressed grave concern at the situation in Libya. They condemned the violence and use of force against civilians, deplored the repression against peaceful demonstrators, and expressed deep regret at the deaths of hundreds of civilians. They called for an immediate end to the violence and for steps to address the legitimate demands of the population, including through national dialogue.

The members of the Security Council called on the Government of Libya to meet its responsibility to protect its population. They called upon the Libyan authorities to act with restraint, to respect human rights and international humanitarian law, and to allow immediate access for international human rights monitors and humanitarian agencies.

The members of the Security Council called for international humanitarian assistance to the people of Libya and expressed concern at the reports of shortages of medical supplies to treat the wounded. They strongly urged the Libyan authorities to ensure the safe passage of humanitarian and medical supplies and humanitarian workers into the country.

The members of the Security Council underlined the need for the Government of Libya to respect the freedom of peaceful assembly and of expression, including freedom of the press. They called for the immediate lifting of restrictions on all forms of the media.

The members of the Security Council stressed the importance of accountability. They underscored the need to hold to account those responsible for attacks, including by forces under their control, on civilians.

The members of the Security Council expressed deep concern about the safety of foreign nationals in Libya. They urged the Libyan authorities and all relevant parties to ensure the safety of all foreign nationals and facilitate the departure of those wishing to leave the country.

The members of the Security Council will continue to follow the situation closely.
Click to expand...
I am UN, hear me roar!
 
Espy

Espy

TommiR said:
I'm not sure that will come to pass, at least not as far as EU countries are concerned. Trade sanctions, perhaps. Peacekeepers to monitor the situation, sure. But I don't see the leaders of EU countries having the political will to send in an actively interventionist force to interfere in what, at present, is seen as an internal libyan matter. And I think the situation needs to get a lot worse before the UN will contemplate sanctioning an intervention on humanitarian grounds; nobody is going to send anybody anywhere over a few hundred dead.


Here is a statement from the UN Security Council on the libyan affair. I am told it is strongly worded.



I am UN, hear me roar!
Click to expand...
I hear the UN is so pissed it forgot to be super corrupt for a few minutes.
 
I

Iaculus

Having done some work on several model UNs in the past, I think we need to understand that everything they say is done in the vaguest, circuitous, and most agonisingly polite manner humanly imaginable. That's why I think we need a UN=>English translator here - 'expressed grave concern' could well mean anything from 'not our problem, guys' to 'fuck this, we're launching the nukes'.
 
TommiR

TommiR

Looks like the no-fly zone in Libya just got UN authorisation, with the vote 10 in favor, 5 abstaining (such as Russia and China, but also Germany).

Apparently the idea of Gaddafi retaining power is more unacceptable than I had thought. Things were beginning to go his way, but, although he still retains a great superiority in tanks and heavy artillery, I'm guessing him winning is now out of the question. I hope air power alone is enough to prevent that, and ground forces won't be needed - after the no-fly zone comes into effect, I guess we are committed to his removal. Gaddafi still winning after all this would be, in my opinion, just about the worst possible outcome.

The text of the UN resolution 1973/2011.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top