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It looks like it's going to be a big enough deal that it deserves its own thread.

First, I hope everyone affected is safe and sound! Please let us know.

The hurricane is responsible for over 300 deaths in Haiti.

Tens of thousands are without power.

While it's only a category 3, and some are saying it's a good thing it's turned east away from land, the reality is that as long as it's over the sea it won't reduce as quickly in power, so hugging the coastline may actually produce more damage and casualties due to wind, rain, and storm surge than if it simply made landfall and dissipated quickly thereafter.

Here's a link to the BBC live coverage. You can find drone footage of the after effects on Haiti, as well as up to date information on strength and damage as it hits the US:

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-us-canada-37577478

They keep saying it's going to loop around and hit us twice. Yay?

I really like Dr Jeff Master's blog for the weather analysis:

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

The relevant post about its looping track:

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/J...with-florida-coast-major-surge-threat-remains

It will loop back, but if it comes around again its very unlikely to be anything more than a strong storm. Still, that can be pretty bad because not much work can be done in the days between its successive hits, so recovery efforts will be significantly hurt.[DOUBLEPOST=1475849853,1475849782][/DOUBLEPOST]Hurricane Nicole strengthened to a category 2.

stienman said:

While it's only a category 3, and some are saying it's a good thing it's turned east away from land, the reality is that as long as it's over the sea it won't reduce as quickly in power, so hugging the coastline may actually produce more damage and casualties due to wind, rain, and storm surge than if it simply made landfall and dissipated quickly thereafter.

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I disagree with your supposition.

* Hurricane damage isn't linear. Category 3 (or to be fair, category 4, as was predicted for the storm) conditions are much more likely to cause structural failure and fatalities than even an extended period in category 1 conditions. An area hit by a glancing blow has downed power lines and fallen trees. An area that suffers a direct hit from a major hurricane has destroyed buildings and infrastructure.

* Hurricanes don't stop after landfall, especially on a peninsula surrounded by warm water. Hurricane Charley produced category 2 conditions in Orlando, 110 miles away from the initial landfall. It entered the Atlantic and had a second landfall in South Carolina. Hurricane Andrew had a second landfall after devastating South Florida. Hurricane Katrina had a landfall in Florida before hitting New Orleans. (I've actually been hit by the same tropical system twice, in the same location, 3 days apart.)

* Hurricanes don't have to hit land. Your scenario posits two options when there was a third to consider -- the initial turn the east is the start of a trend, pulling the storm away from shore entirely.

Where's Ross when you need him?

Dave said:

Where's Ross when you need him?

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