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Is Humanity screwed by 2050?

Mar 8, 2010#1

Overflight

I try to be as (reasonably) optimistic as I can in my every day life. Yet, I cannot help but feel utter dread when I read stuff like this:

http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/22/an-introduction-to-global-warming-impacts-hell-and-high-water/
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126921.500-one-last-chance-to-save-mankind.html?full=true
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2002/jul/07/research.waste
http://ruby.zcommunications.org/james-lovelock-and-the-end-times-by-ted-glick.pdf

I like to believe that things will work out somehow: a revolutionary new technology, these predictions being somehow exaggerated (the fact that 2050 is often cited reeks of "arbitrary projection"). Yet, the fact that this is due in my lifetime worries me a lot. It certainly makes me not want to have children of my own. What's the point if THIS is the world they will be born in?

I would like to hear your thoughts on this matter? Do you think we're screwed and how do you plan to deal with it?

Mar 8, 2010#2

Dave

If you study populations in biology you'll notice that the sustainable curve has been blown way out of the water. We have gone way past known scientific observations on population controls and are in totally uncharted areas. This is due to better medical technology, globalization (which tends to cut down on large-scale conflicts) and MUCH better technology in the processing and growing of food.

What's really going to happen (in my estimation) will be either a severe lessening of potable water and the wars over that OR a total collapse of the world economic system which would bankrupt entire countries and sew anarchy and a breakdown of society.

Hopefully not in my lifetime but something's gotta give sometime unless we find a way off of the rock.

Mar 8, 2010#3

Espy

Eh, give it a few years, another major world war or 2... badda-bing-badda-boom.

Mar 8, 2010#4

Eriol

Espy said:
Eh, give it a few years, another major world war or 2... badda-bing-badda-boom.

War isn't a significant cause of death versus the number of deaths each year anyways. Look at the stats on wiki. ALL intentional deaths (not even just war, also including murders) is only 2.84% of world deaths. WWII was about 70 Million over 6 years, which is statistically significant, being that for 2002 there were ~57 Million deaths, so add 10 to that, plus the fact that there were less people in the 1940s, then ya, War would be BIGGER, but unless we're talking about NUCLEAR war, war is not, and will not be a major cause of population decline.

Contrast this to the Spanish Flu (you know, a REAL pandemic, not this imitation crap from last year), that killed 50-100 million people in under a year. And the Black Death which took out somewhere between 30-60% of Europe's population.

Nuclear war (and the resulting famines/breakdown in services) could really reduce population, but not regular wars. I'd bet on disease/famine for likelyhood (if it happens at all) of human population reduction.

Mar 8, 2010#5

Hailey Knight

I first read this topic title as 2005.

If there was a total societal collapse, it would last a wild and then things would rise up again in a couple hundred years.

Mar 8, 2010#6

@Li3n

FALLOUT 4: The Real Thing....

Mar 8, 2010#7

Tinwhistler

No.

Mar 8, 2010#8

Shegokigo

Personally I think Humanity's biggest problem will become more like:

Mar 8, 2010#9

Jake

Tinwhistler said:
No.

Maybe.

Mar 8, 2010#10

Fun Size

Jake;351045][QUOTE=Tinwhistler said:
No.

Maybe.[/QUOTE]

How much has humanity had to drink?

Mar 8, 2010#11

Hailey Knight

Fun Size;351048][QUOTE=Jake;351045][QUOTE=Tinwhistler said:
No.

Maybe.[/QUOTE]

How much has humanity had to drink?[/QUOTE]

I think it's had enough.

Mar 8, 2010#12

AshburnerX

Shegokigo said:
Personally I think Humanity's biggest problem will become more like:

Decadent societies usually fall long before it gets that bad. We'll ether have a world peace by 2050 or a war so intense that it's going to take out a huge chunk of the population.

Mar 8, 2010#13

Espy

AshburnerX said:
Decadent societies usually fall long before it gets that bad. We'll ether have a world peace by 2050 or a war so intense that it's going to take out a huge chunk of the population.

Source?

I'm just messing with you. Really, I'm not worried. Have fun with all the doom and gloom. I'm gonna get another margarita.

Mar 8, 2010#14

AshburnerX

Espy;351167][QUOTE=AshburnerX said:
Decadent societies usually fall long before it gets that bad. We'll ether have a world peace by 2050 or a war so intense that it's going to take out a huge chunk of the population.

Source?

I'm just messing with you. Really, I'm not worried. Have fun with all the doom and gloom. I'm gonna get another margarita.[/QUOTE]

The fall of Rome?

Mar 8, 2010#15

Espy

AshburnerX;351171][QUOTE=Espy;351167][QUOTE=AshburnerX said:
Decadent societies usually fall long before it gets that bad. We'll ether have a world peace by 2050 or a war so intense that it's going to take out a huge chunk of the population.

Source?

I'm just messing with you. Really, I'm not worried. Have fun with all the doom and gloom. I'm gonna get another margarita.[/QUOTE]

The fall of Rome?[/QUOTE]

DON'T KILL MY BUZZ. I"m trying to drink my margaritas I made with my MargaritaVille Margarita Maker.

Mar 8, 2010#16

Tinwhistler

Rome fell after 400 years.

We have some time yet.

Mar 8, 2010#17

Cajungal

Espy said:
DON'T KILL MY BUZZ. I"m trying to drink my margaritas I made with my MargaritaVille Margarita Maker.

Pass me that pitcher, brother. *puts on sunglasses, kicks back by the pool*

Mar 8, 2010#18

strawman

Let's see...

We had "zero population" in the 60s and 70s...

Acid rain in the 80's...

Ozone hole in the 90's...

Global warming in the 00's...

And now Climate change in the '10s...

Models of resource consumption and planet change are useful, but they are not perfect. At best they help people _guess_ what kind of a problem, and get a rough idea of the magnitude of a problem than might occur, and perhaps project a hand-waving guess as to the date that the problem might become a calamity.

But they are not, in and of themselves, a crystal ball.

Don't live your life in fear of these problems. Don't blind yourself to them, but don't bind yourself to them either.

It's hilarious, actually. Almost all of these models show the 'calamity' occurring just within the researcher's lifetimes, and causing "irreparable harm to their children's future!"

Mar 9, 2010#19

@Li3n

stienman said:
It's hilarious, actually. Almost all of these models show the 'calamity' occurring just within the researcher's lifetimes, and causing "irreparable harm to their children's future!"

Well how else are you gonna get Joe Nobody to get off his arse?! Better to do too much then too little, innit.

Mar 9, 2010#20

@Li3n

Everyone chill... we're not getting to 2050: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8556585.stm

It's the robots that are gonna be screwed.... REVENGE BABY!

Mar 9, 2010#21

Bowielee

Espy;351173][QUOTE=AshburnerX;351171][QUOTE=Espy;351167][QUOTE=AshburnerX said:
Decadent societies usually fall long before it gets that bad. We'll ether have a world peace by 2050 or a war so intense that it's going to take out a huge chunk of the population.

Mar 9, 2010#22

Espy

Bowielee;351427][QUOTE=Espy;351173][QUOTE=AshburnerX;351171][QUOTE=Espy;351167][QUOTE=AshburnerX said:
Decadent societies usually fall long before it gets that bad. We'll ether have a world peace by 2050 or a war so intense that it's going to take out a huge chunk of the population.

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