http://news.yahoo.com/libyan-dictator-moammar-gadhafi-dead-rebels-claim-122438187.html
Gadhafi has 'reportedly' been captured and killed. More news to follow.
Gadhafi has 'reportedly' been captured and killed. More news to follow.
[Announcement] One less dictator...
- Thread starter sixpackshaker
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Well the defacto head of the National Council has spent time in one of the CIA's torture prisons. That can't be helpful to our future cooperation.
Your assuming he's not already in our pocket because we broke him during his stay.
In all seriousness, yes... it's going to be tense for a few years, but I doubt they'll do anything stupid. Europe will pressure them into a more controllable state, mainly because they don't want the US to go to war with such a big oil exporter. They'll be ungrateful assholes like everyone else we've ever helped though.
The internet works so fast, there are already cellphone videos of the body floating around the ether...
It was the time he spent at 7-Eleven.
Below are some pictures and a video seemingly depicting Gaddafi's last moments. Warning - they can be graphic.
North_Ranger
Staff member
I have to say, I'm pessimistic about Libya's future. If my understanding of the situation is correct, the only thing the rebels had in common was that they wanted Gadhafi dead, D-E-D, dead! Now that's accomplished, there's likely gonna be a helluva lot of infighting ahead as there is - again, to my understanding - little to no central leadership to take over the power vacuum.
There's also the notion that Gadhafi held onto power by playing off the various tribal groupings of Libya against each other. Now that he's gone, I wouldn't be surprised if the gloves really come off.
There's also the notion that Gadhafi held onto power by playing off the various tribal groupings of Libya against each other. Now that he's gone, I wouldn't be surprised if the gloves really come off.
Yeah. Arguments I've heard for tolerating dictators in the Middle East go that they are very likely better than the unknown alternative. I guess we will soon see how this pans out in the case of Libya.
Gaddafi was a brutal SOB, but he had renounced terrorism in recent years and worked together with the West. Also under his rule electricity, water, education and health services were free, funded by oil revenue. All this does not excuse his failings on other fronts, of course, but let's just say I hope the quality of life for the ordinary libyans will improve under the coming administration(s).
Speaking of which, below is an excerpt from a statement by the libyan authorities stating that new laws in Libya would be based on the Sharia, though they seem to be downplaying the significance and assuring moderation.
Associated Free Press said:
I'm also of the opinion that they are unlikely to anything stupid internationally, at least in the short run, as they will have their hands full for a couple of years in rebuilding their country into a free and liberal secular democracy in the best case, or fighting a new round of civil wars in the worst case. The latter might of course result in hardships for ordinary libyans, refugee exoduses into neighbouring countries and Europe, an increase in radicalism in Libya, and disruptions in the production and export of crude. I.e. "Bad Stuff".
But I am a bit unsure of the ability of Europe to directly influence the course of events in Libya. They can probably find other buyers for their oil, and I believe Europe at present lacks both the will and the means for a more sustained and possibly forceful commitment.
As for gratitude, I believe few if any modern states do what it is they do out of the goodness of their hearts, to the extent of taking a hit for somebody else's benefit. So I think gratitude beyond simple declarations for doing something you've judged to be in your own interests to begin with might prove elusive. If you continue to be in a position to influence or assist them, they'll work with you; otherwise, I believe the circumstances at hand will have a greater bearing on their decisions than past favors.
Offensive joke: what do Gaddafi and Freddie Mercury have in common?
Answer: both died after getting shot up a sewage pipe.
Europe is a very close neighbor and has enough force projection to shut down the entire Mediterranean if they need to. They are also on much better terms with them than the US. Libya will listen to them much more than they listen to us.
I find it a bit difficult to imagine what Libya could realistically do to muster the kind of resolve in Europe needed for a renewed military commitment. My take on why operation Unified Protector happened in the first place was because certain major european leaders wanted to regain the initiative after some embarrassing developments during the Arab Spring, and declared for a side. But they miscalculated, and the side they had chosen to support actually began losing. So they commenced military operations to prevent a mistake from turning into a disaster. But now it's over, the evil dictator has been removed, and the troops can come home leaving the libyans themselves to deal with the aftermath.
I must say I have a less encouraging picture of european power projection capabilities than you. Europe's showing in Kosovo was less than encouraging in that respect, and, although the area was actually within Europe itself, the entire operation would not have been possible without significant participation by US assets. In Libya the US tanker aircraft were of particular importance. European capabilities are improving, but I don't think we are quite yet where Europe could sustain a substantial operation by itself.
As to the libyans listening to us... Well, we have carrots, but not so much in the stick department I think. Which can make for a difficult situation for diplomacy, especially if the factions there begin shooting at each other.
I must say I have a less encouraging picture of european power projection capabilities than you. Europe's showing in Kosovo was less than encouraging in that respect, and, although the area was actually within Europe itself, the entire operation would not have been possible without significant participation by US assets. In Libya the US tanker aircraft were of particular importance. European capabilities are improving, but I don't think we are quite yet where Europe could sustain a substantial operation by itself.
As to the libyans listening to us... Well, we have carrots, but not so much in the stick department I think. Which can make for a difficult situation for diplomacy, especially if the factions there begin shooting at each other.
When it comes to Libya, Europe has a big bargaining stick. Euros for Oil, they can easily send their cash to Saudi Arabia. Also Saudi Arabia can open up the taps and easily surpass Libya's oil output.
You don't think such oil guzzlers as China and India will be more than happy to buy libyan oil, particularly if they get it at a reduced price due to a drop in demand? Similar concerns have been voiced over the EU's ban on oil imports from Syria following the disturbances there. And Libya produces about four times as much oil per day, making it a much more attractive bulk supplier.
... who cares if India gets oil? They have a great relationship with the Western world.
Not really. India and China would be able to negotiate reduced prices because of the lack of demand. They'd be making some money but nearly as much.
Depends on the price they agree upon, of course, but apparently your estimates and mine greatly differ on the impact this would have on Europe's ability to influence Libya.
edit: Can't actually link like that without violating Terms of Use. Oh well, I'll see if I can dig up something else.
edit:
An article on Foreign Affairs detailing oil price worries over Arab Spring, shedding some light on the demand-supply aspects and substitution worries.
A lengthier article on the same on The Economist, featuring the graph below on oil demand forcasts:
In general terms, Libya has high-quality crude, with pre-war production at about 1.5 million barrels per day, and has the largest proven reserves in Africa. I'd be surprised if India and China (particularly China with it's significant investments into oil in Africa and a projected 70% growth in demand by 2015 from 2009 levels according to IEA) wouldn't want to tap dat (pun intended).
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