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interesting article. Raise a lot of question on how the earth and each nation can support itself (or not)

I notice it's often the case that the poorest nations that are having the most children, while a great many wealthy nations are growing more slowly, stagnating, or even shrinking in some cases.

Blahblahblah*IdiocracyImageLink*blahblahblah

Shegokigo said:

Blahblahblah*IdiocracyImageLink*blahblahblah

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Oh be quiet, you slacker. Plainly you are partially to blame for this.

GasBandit said:

I notice it's often the case that the poorest nations that are having the most children, while a great many wealthy nations are growing more slowly, stagnating, or even shrinking in some cases.

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It's not hard to see why. Wealth leads to options, such as birth control. It also means that one does not need to have 8 children to have a life past 55. Higher education, especially for women, tends to make people see options beyond "get married, have enormous family." Economic opportunities encourage people to hold off on having children and some will see larger families as a limiting factor for success and comfort.

There is a convincing theory that the world's population will naturally shrink over the course of the century.

GasBandit said:

Oh be quiet, you slacker. Plainly you are partially to blame for this.

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tl;dr

Chibibar said:

7 Billion People!!! Can Earth handle it?

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Yes.

stienman said:

Yes.

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With caveat. As soon as oil production in the world begins the steady decline (or rather, when countries begin admitting they are producing less), the amount of food needed to sustain that level of population will be impossible to produce.

Krisken said:

With caveat. As soon as oil production in the world begins the steady decline (or rather, when countries begin admitting they are producing less), the amount of food needed to sustain that level of population will be impossible to produce.

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I think his full answer was, "Yes, the EARTH can handle just about anything. The tiny pink fleshlings infesting its surface however..."

Me, I think the solution is as obvious as it is elegant - cannibalism and/or war. Problem solved.

You guys haven't read enough 40k lore. We can fit 7 billion in each Hive city, we just need to get better at building Hive cities.

Also I'm gonna be a Spyrer and hunt you guys for sport.

Necronic said:

You guys haven't read enough 40k lore.

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GasBandit said:

war. Problem solved.

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Oh ho?

Krisken said:

With caveat. As soon as oil production in the world begins the steady decline (or rather, when countries begin admitting they are producing less), the amount of food needed to sustain that level of population will be impossible to produce.

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Impossible ==> more expensive

But, of course, we have always been at least fifteen years from so-called peak oil, and will be for the forseeable future.

stienman said:

Impossible ==> more expensive

But, of course, we have always been at least fifteen years from so-called peak oil, and will be for the forseeable future.

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"World wide oil discoveries have been less than annual production since 1980.[5] According to several sources, worldwide production is past or near its maximum.[4][5][6][8] World population has grown faster than oil production. Because of this, oil production per capita peaked in 1979 (preceded by a plateau during the period of 1973-1979).[32]"

From the Peak oil article on Wikipedia. But yeah, more expensive means that farmers won't be able to afford to mass produce food (nor delivery be so wide spread). Factor in increasing population and you have a recipe for disaster.

Stienman, you're a smart guy. I'm curious if you are just in the mood to be contrary or if you are simply trying to get me to elaborate on the subject. Gas here in the States is $3.45 roughly a gallon. With increased demand in China and India and oil being used for just about everything, we won't have a lot of time to adjust to a dramatic increase of the cost of oil. It will hit the earth like a brick to the head.

Krisken said:

I'm curious if you are just in the mood to be contrary or if you are simply trying to get me to elaborate on the subject.

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Mostly I'm pissed about something completely unrelated elsewhere in my life, and you get the sharp end of the stick.

But the reality is that humans will adjust. Oil is/was the lowest hanging fruit for portable energy. We're no longer discovering the huge, huge oil fields because it's not needed and exploration is expensive and we've gotten most of the big ones. When it becomes profitable to do so, we'll be going after the smaller ones, and it'll be faster and cheaper to do so at that point than it will now due to better technology and models.

But ultimately we'll have to learn to live with less oil - and that's already happening. People are thinking about how much fuel will cost for a given trip, and making some decisions based on that alone.

As fuel prices increase, so too will food prices, and since food is already dirt cheap in the US, it'll simply get a little more expensive by degrees. People will choose cheaper foods - which will often mean lower quality, higher calorie processed foods, but their masic needs will still be met. Of course the US accounts for less than half a billion of the world population. Consider the rest of the world, and you'll find that oil is already significantly more expensive for them, and yet they still do just as well as us.

Oil is an important resource, but honestly it's a bunch of BS that the world will end due to the always impending oil crisis. Yes, things are going to change. They will have to. We will spend more for electric cars with batteries and fuel cells processing hydrogen rather than using oil. More and more farms will be planting solar cells alongside soy beans and corn so they can power their equipment. Factories will be using chemicals processed from plants rather than oil.

Oil is a cheap source of energy and many products we use.

It's not the only source, nor are the alternatives so expensive that we will enter another dark age.

stienman said:

Mostly I'm pissed about something completely unrelated elsewhere in my life, and you get the sharp end of the stick.

But the reality is that humans will adjust. Oil is/was the lowest hanging fruit for portable energy. We're no longer discovering the huge, huge oil fields because it's not needed and exploration is expensive and we've gotten most of the big ones. When it becomes profitable to do so, we'll be going after the smaller ones, and it'll be faster and cheaper to do so at that point than it will now due to better technology and models.

But ultimately we'll have to learn to live with less oil - and that's already happening. People are thinking about how much fuel will cost for a given trip, and making some decisions based on that alone.

As fuel prices increase, so too will food prices, and since food is already dirt cheap in the US, it'll simply get a little more expensive by degrees. People will choose cheaper foods - which will often mean lower quality, higher calorie processed foods, but their masic needs will still be met. Of course the US accounts for less than half a billion of the world population. Consider the rest of the world, and you'll find that oil is already significantly more expensive for them, and yet they still do just as well as us.

Oil is an important resource, but honestly it's a bunch of BS that the world will end due to the always impending oil crisis. Yes, things are going to change. They will have to. We will spend more for electric cars with batteries and fuel cells processing hydrogen rather than using oil. More and more farms will be planting solar cells alongside soy beans and corn so they can power their equipment. Factories will be using chemicals processed from plants rather than oil.

Oil is a cheap source of energy and many products we use.

It's not the only source, nor are the alternatives so expensive that we will enter another dark age.

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I'm sorry you're having a rough time elsewhere.

On to the current debate.

A little bit more expensive for food? When the poverty level in the United States is 15.1% and unemployment is 9.1%, a little bit more expensive is going to be a disaster.

I really hope you are right, though. I want to be optimistic about the situation, but I just don't see it.

I will tell you one thing- next spring I'm starting a garden.

stienman said:

Yes.

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I'll second this with the scientific addendum: ", probably."
Added at: 08:53

Krisken said:

I will tell you one thing- next spring I'm starting a garden.

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To grow your weed in you big hippie?

GasBandit said:

Oh ho?

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Dude you are totally going to be burned as a heretic. In the 41st mellinia, there is only democrats.

Probably? I mean, these days my italian grandma is living at my house and it's not too bad.
Surely the same thing applies increasing the numbers, as the earth may be even bigger than my house!

bathrooms may be occupied at inopportune times more frequently, though.

Espy said:

To grow your weed in you big hippie?

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It might surprise you to know, smoking baby, that I've never even had a cigerette, let alone taken an illegal drug. I didn't even drink until I was 21

No, I think gardening is going to become an important skill in the next 30 years. Eventually there will be a food shortage due to increased prices and the gene splicing by companies homogenizing the seeds of corn and vegetables.

Krisken said:

It might surprise you to know, smoking baby, that I've never even had a cigerette, let alone taken an illegal drug. I didn't even drink until I was 21

No, I think gardening is going to become an important skill in the next 30 years. Eventually there will be a food shortage due to increased prices and the gene splicing by companies homogenizing the seeds of corn and vegetables.

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No, I'm pretty sure protecting your garden is going to be a more important skill. Gardens tend to get picked clean in times of famine.

AshburnerX said:

No, I'm pretty sure protecting your garden is going to be a more important skill. Gardens tend to get picked clean in times of famine.

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Heh, garden RAIDING skill - even MORE important.

Lvl 3 Garden Raider.

Krisken said:

Lvl 3 Garden Raider.

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At level 20 you get a pet bear.

Money is what probably prevent things from happen in one country to another. We are in our own separate world and don't want to share our toys (it is human nature) I do believe we have the technology to really make the whole world a better place, but right now we are too busy fighting each other.

this is why other countries are struggling. I agree with some of y'all that Earth itself can handle it, it is the people that probably won't be able to cope.

The next big wars won't be fought over something as stupid as oil.

Water, though, is another story.

Dave said:

The next big wars won't be fought over something as stupid as oil.

Water, though, is another story.

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Never overtly. But over "land" or "freedeom," or "regime change" or whatnot sure. With a nice friendly oil-producing trade partner being the end result.

But that's one thing that always cheesed me off about the "NO BLOOD FOR OIL" crowd - current western civilization can't exist without oil. Oil is in everything we wear, everything we eat, everything we use, everything we drive, and it is because of oil that anything that ISN'T oil can get to market. The price of oil IS de facto inflation - if the price of oil goes up, the price of everything goes up.

If there is one tangible substance on earth that IS worth blood in this period of history, it's oil.

GasBandit said:

Never overtly. But over "land" or "freedeom," or "regime change" or whatnot sure. With a nice friendly oil-producing trade partner being the end result.

But that's one thing that always cheesed me off about the "NO BLOOD FOR OIL" crowd - current western civilization can't exist without oil. Oil is in everything we wear, everything we eat, everything we use, everything we drive, and it is because of oil that anything that ISN'T oil can get to market. The price of oil IS de facto inflation - if the price of oil goes up, the price of everything goes up.

If there is one tangible substance on earth that IS worth blood in this period of history, it's oil.

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Yup, and the last 120 years wouldn't have been possible without it.

Krisken said:

Yup, and the last 120 years wouldn't have been possible without it.

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I bet a lot of common folks don't realize how much oil is use everyday (most people think it is just Gasoline) rubber, plastic, films are some of the example the use of oil.

Chibibar said:

I bet a lot of common folks don't realize how much oil is use everyday (most people think it is just Gasoline) rubber, plastic, films are some of the example the use of oil.

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I saw a great documentary on oil and just how many daily products use oil. It really is astounding. They also covered how the mass discovery of oil made the industrial revolution possible (along with the United States and how the Texas oil fields made the countries rise to a super power possible).

Krisken said:

I saw a great documentary on oil and just how many daily products use oil. It really is astounding. They also covered how the mass discovery of oil made the industrial revolution possible (along with the United States and how the Texas oil fields made the countries rise to a super power possible).

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Yea. I think I may have saw something similar on the history channel and Discovery Channel (my wife love to watch those channels sometimes) While gasoline is a major product of oil, there are tons of stuff we still use oil the main thing come to mine that will have to "discover" alternatives are rubber tire and shoes.

GasBandit said:

Never overtly. But over "land" or "freedeom," or "regime change" or whatnot sure. With a nice friendly oil-producing trade partner being the end result.

But that's one thing that always cheesed me off about the "NO BLOOD FOR OIL" crowd - current western civilization can't exist without oil. Oil is in everything we wear, everything we eat, everything we use, everything we drive, and it is because of oil that anything that ISN'T oil can get to market. The price of oil IS de facto inflation - if the price of oil goes up, the price of everything goes up.

If there is one tangible substance on earth that IS worth blood in this period of history, it's oil.

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Obvious solution... make plastic out of blood...

<--------- Currently employed as exploration geophysicist, but also card-carrying hippy (subvert from within!).

"Peak oil" is inevitable, of course, but it's not coming for a while. I'm not sure where people are getting that there are no more big discoveries. That's actually untrue (check some of the recent finds off Brazil, for example). There have been quite a few recent large discoveries. It's true that the easy discoveries are mostly gone, but that doesn't mean large oil fields don't exist. There are decades of easy to find unconventional resources like shales that have become economically feasible, and untold resources that weren't discoverable by traditional exploration methods. Not to mention that old oil fields were usually only drained of about 40-50% of their contents because it wasn't economic to remove the other half. And there are still isolated patches even in the old enormous fields that weren't connected to the primary producing field.

Of course none of this means that I don't think we shouldn't develop new resources for energy. I would really like to see something replace the energy-leaking, self-destroying outdated monstrosity that is the internal combustion engine. Even if the replacement also runs on oil, it's got to be more efficient.

I'd be more concerned about food and water.

That last line sounds familiar...

I wish I could find this analogy again, to be sure I am getting it right...

Imagine if all the water in the world fit into a five gallon water cooler jug. Of all that water only two teaspoons of that water is available as fresh drinking water. Also one of those teaspoons is polluted beyond use already.

Isn't a lot of that because desalination isn't cost effective? If we were better able to convert sea water into potable drinking water, it would definitely ease our water problems. It wouldn't solve them, but it would definitely give us lots more time.

We just need to get fusion reactors to work...

Desalination is more expensive than groundwater (wells, springs) and precipitation (rain, snowmelt, rivers, lakes) sources, but it's not out of reach by any means.

For a large desalination plant, typical costs are under 2 dollars per cubic meter of pure water output. Some technologies (reverse osmosis) get to $0.70 per cubic meter of water output:

http://www.scitopics.com/Unit_Water_Cost_for_various_Desalination_Technologies.html

Most people are paying more than that for water now, although residential water costs also include distribution and usually sewer costs as well, so while this is *more* expensive than groundwater, it's not nearly as expensive as oil, and is not likely to be anytime soon near the ocean.

And, of course, if we can get fusion working on a large scale, energy will not be that great a problem, and desalination costs will go down further.