Is Humanity screwed by 2050?

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Overflight

I try to be as (reasonably) optimistic as I can in my every day life. Yet, I cannot help but feel utter dread when I read stuff like this:

http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/22/an-introduction-to-global-warming-impacts-hell-and-high-water/
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126921.500-one-last-chance-to-save-mankind.html?full=true
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2002/jul/07/research.waste
http://ruby.zcommunications.org/james-lovelock-and-the-end-times-by-ted-glick.pdf

I like to believe that things will work out somehow: a revolutionary new technology, these predictions being somehow exaggerated (the fact that 2050 is often cited reeks of "arbitrary projection"). Yet, the fact that this is due in my lifetime worries me a lot. It certainly makes me not want to have children of my own. What's the point if THIS is the world they will be born in?

I would like to hear your thoughts on this matter? Do you think we're screwed and how do you plan to deal with it?
 
Dave

Dave

Staff member
If you study populations in biology you'll notice that the sustainable curve has been blown way out of the water. We have gone way past known scientific observations on population controls and are in totally uncharted areas. This is due to better medical technology, globalization (which tends to cut down on large-scale conflicts) and MUCH better technology in the processing and growing of food.

What's really going to happen (in my estimation) will be either a severe lessening of potable water and the wars over that OR a total collapse of the world economic system which would bankrupt entire countries and sew anarchy and a breakdown of society.

Hopefully not in my lifetime but something's gotta give sometime unless we find a way off of the rock.
 
Eriol

Eriol

Espy said:
Eh, give it a few years, another major world war or 2... badda-bing-badda-boom.
Click to expand...
War isn't a significant cause of death versus the number of deaths each year anyways. Look at the stats on wiki. ALL intentional deaths (not even just war, also including murders) is only 2.84% of world deaths. WWII was about 70 Million over 6 years, which is statistically significant, being that for 2002 there were ~57 Million deaths, so add 10 to that, plus the fact that there were less people in the 1940s, then ya, War would be BIGGER, but unless we're talking about NUCLEAR war, war is not, and will not be a major cause of population decline.

Contrast this to the Spanish Flu (you know, a REAL pandemic, not this imitation crap from last year), that killed 50-100 million people in under a year. And the Black Death which took out somewhere between 30-60% of Europe's population.

Nuclear war (and the resulting famines/breakdown in services) could really reduce population, but not regular wars. I'd bet on disease/famine for likelyhood (if it happens at all) of human population reduction.
 
Hailey Knight

Hailey Knight

I first read this topic title as 2005.

If there was a total societal collapse, it would last a wild and then things would rise up again in a couple hundred years.
 
AshburnerX

AshburnerX

Shegokigo said:
Personally I think Humanity's biggest problem will become more like:

Click to expand...
Decadent societies usually fall long before it gets that bad. We'll ether have a world peace by 2050 or a war so intense that it's going to take out a huge chunk of the population.
 
Espy

Espy

AshburnerX said:
Decadent societies usually fall long before it gets that bad. We'll ether have a world peace by 2050 or a war so intense that it's going to take out a huge chunk of the population.
Click to expand...
Source?


I'm just messing with you. Really, I'm not worried. Have fun with all the doom and gloom. I'm gonna get another margarita.
 
AshburnerX

AshburnerX

Espy;351167][QUOTE=AshburnerX said:
Decadent societies usually fall long before it gets that bad. We'll ether have a world peace by 2050 or a war so intense that it's going to take out a huge chunk of the population.
Click to expand...
Source?


I'm just messing with you. Really, I'm not worried. Have fun with all the doom and gloom. I'm gonna get another margarita.[/QUOTE]

The fall of Rome?
 
Espy

Espy

AshburnerX;351171][QUOTE=Espy;351167][QUOTE=AshburnerX said:
Decadent societies usually fall long before it gets that bad. We'll ether have a world peace by 2050 or a war so intense that it's going to take out a huge chunk of the population.
Click to expand...
Source?


I'm just messing with you. Really, I'm not worried. Have fun with all the doom and gloom. I'm gonna get another margarita.[/QUOTE]

The fall of Rome?[/QUOTE]

DON'T KILL MY BUZZ. I"m trying to drink my margaritas I made with my MargaritaVille Margarita Maker.
 
strawman

strawman

Let's see...

We had "zero population" in the 60s and 70s...

Acid rain in the 80's...

Ozone hole in the 90's...

Global warming in the 00's...

And now Climate change in the '10s...

Models of resource consumption and planet change are useful, but they are not perfect. At best they help people _guess_ what kind of a problem, and get a rough idea of the magnitude of a problem than might occur, and perhaps project a hand-waving guess as to the date that the problem might become a calamity.

But they are not, in and of themselves, a crystal ball.

Don't live your life in fear of these problems. Don't blind yourself to them, but don't bind yourself to them either.

It's hilarious, actually. Almost all of these models show the 'calamity' occurring just within the researcher's lifetimes, and causing "irreparable harm to their children's future!"
 
@Li3n

@Li3n

stienman said:
It's hilarious, actually. Almost all of these models show the 'calamity' occurring just within the researcher's lifetimes, and causing "irreparable harm to their children's future!"
Click to expand...
Well how else are you gonna get Joe Nobody to get off his arse?! Better to do too much then too little, innit.
 
Bowielee

Bowielee

Espy;351173][QUOTE=AshburnerX;351171][QUOTE=Espy;351167][QUOTE=AshburnerX said:
Decadent societies usually fall long before it gets that bad. We'll ether have a world peace by 2050 or a war so intense that it's going to take out a huge chunk of the population.
Click to expand...
Source?


I'm just messing with you. Really, I'm not worried. Have fun with all the doom and gloom. I'm gonna get another margarita.[/QUOTE]

The fall of Rome?[/QUOTE]

DON'T KILL MY BUZZ. I"m trying to drink my margaritas I made with my MargaritaVille Margarita Maker.[/QUOTE]

The British empire, the Egyptian empire, the Mongol empire... etc...
 
Espy

Espy

Bowielee;351427][QUOTE=Espy;351173][QUOTE=AshburnerX;351171][QUOTE=Espy;351167][QUOTE=AshburnerX said:
Decadent societies usually fall long before it gets that bad. We'll ether have a world peace by 2050 or a war so intense that it's going to take out a huge chunk of the population.
Click to expand...
Source?


I'm just messing with you. Really, I'm not worried. Have fun with all the doom and gloom. I'm gonna get another margarita.[/QUOTE]

The fall of Rome?[/QUOTE]

DON'T KILL MY BUZZ. I"m trying to drink my margaritas I made with my MargaritaVille Margarita Maker.[/QUOTE]

The British empire, the Egyptian empire, the Mongol empire... etc...[/QUOTE]

And LO!
 
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