Look out for that Fiscal Cliff!

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Well, it's time to pay the Piper and reset taxes back to circa 2001. You can't have tax cuts, and have two wars without someone paying the bill. Thanks George W Bush.

Can I return that crummy 150 dollar check you gave me back in 2002 and call it even?

 
Well, it's time to pay the Piper and reset taxes back to circa 2001. You can't have tax cuts, and have two wars without someone paying the bill. Thanks George W Bush.

Can I return that crummy 150 dollar check you gave me back in 2002 and call it even?

JUUUUUUMP!

 

Zappit

Staff member
Tea Party's holding all this up and dragging the entire country down? Republicans might be regretting how they embraced those extremists a couple years ago. If the Republicans take the heat for the fallout, and everything indicates they will, they won't have much of a chance during the next midterms. The effects of going over the cliff will still be felt then, since the Teabags are practically cheering for the dive. They won't fix it.
 
I'm still thinking you guys will work this out in the last minute like you did with the debt ceiling crisis last year, or at least come up with something to kick the can further down the road.

Still, I'm holding on to some money I can buy stocks with, in case you can't solve it and the stock market takes a nose dive.
 
Can we be sure this "cliff" isn't just the invention of one side or the other in order to bully the other into caving to it's demands? Or the invention of those who rely on FUD to make the highest profits?
 
Can we be sure this "cliff" isn't just the invention of one side or the other in order to bully the other into caving to it's demands? Or the invention of those who rely on FUD to make the highest profits?
It's definitely not an invention. It's sensationalistically named, but Bush instituted a series of tax cuts and raised government spending in 2001 and they were ment to be a temporary stopgap measure to kind of "ride out" the recession. The problem is that we aren't fully recovered from that recession yet and if something isn't instituted, next year, everyone will be paying higher taxes across the board, by quite a lot. It will also lower federal spending. Rather than try to explain the role of government spending in Keynesian economics, I'll just leave this link here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_economics

Now, it can be fully argued that we should just buck up and accept the higher tax rates, but at a time when we're just starting a very fragile recovery from probably the worst recession ever, it may have disasterous consequences.
 
I really don't het the Republican side in this debate. "We're against higher taxes for the rich, so we'll force higher taxes on the poor by not cooperating". Can they really sell that to anyone with an income under $1,000,000? It's bonkers.
Of course, the Democratic side isn't that much better - "we don't want to try and cut spending on some unnecessary and abused systems, so we're just going to force everyone to pay more taxes" isn't a great big rallying cry either.

There should, of course, simply be both: higher taxes for the top tier salaries (and we're talking about the US - it's not like even the Dems want to institue a 75% tax like France :p), and decent budget cuts on topics where money is being wasted left and right. Of course, where to cut spending is another issue.
 
It's definitely not an invention.
I think the most simplistic (and personally relatable) explanation would be to imagine that you had some bills, but your payday wasn't going to be until next week, so you bought stuff on your credit card, not realizing that your statement was going to be due the day after payday and that the finance charge would put you over your limit. So now that payday is right around the corner, you have to decide whether you want to keep your entire paycheck and suffer the over limit fees, or whether you pay your statement to prevent the fees but then have less money to work with until next payday.

--Patrick
 
I wish people would stop comparing government budgets to household budgets. Every time I see it I feel myself getting dumber by proxy.
 
You can't have tax cuts, and have two wars without someone paying the bill. Thanks George W Bush.
Why are you blaming Bush? He signed the first one before the wars were a twinkle in Osama's eye. Congress created and passed them, and it was a bipartisan effort. The senate was 50/50, and the republicans only held 9 more seats in the house than the democrats.

If anything, blame Obama who came in on a recovery act, then extended them in 2010 - again, passed by congress and signed by Obama.

If you're going to say that a president should have acted differently, then you should be blaming Obama, who saw both wars and didn't let them expire as they would have if congress and Obama simply not acted.

Quite frankly, though, it appears that they are simply flying by the seat of their pants. There's no US Federal Budget. If there were, it most certainly wouldn't be balanced. Right now they seem to be making the best decisions they can in the face of absolutely no planning, or even economic direction for the future.

This has been going on for so long that we're past considering their actions negligence, and well into gross negligence.
 
I wish people would stop comparing government budgets to household budgets. Every time I see it I feel myself getting dumber by proxy.
I'm open to alternative methods of getting people to understand the impact and importance of other people's decisions.

--Patrick
 
I'm open to alternative methods of getting people to understand the impact and importance of other people's decisions.

--Patrick
Except, you know, it doesn't. It creates a false idea on how government budgets work and their impact on the economy as a whole. It's a view that has brought us to the stupidity we see in the House and Congress, where neither party is willing to do what is best for the country in a misguided attempt to 'balance the budget' while ignoring what is best for the country in an effort to cut every program and not raise any revenue, a move which would cripple the economy in the same way the fiscal cliff would.

Oversimplifying the effect of government spending and comparing it to household incomes makes people less informed, not more.
 
Except, you know, it doesn't.
...which is why I solicit an alternative. I know that when I try to discuss finances with people, I can see that once I try to talk about anything outside their personal finances, they just stop paying attention. It's my experience that your average person doesn't seem to realize that their financial universe is just a raft in a big, big ocean, and they pay so much attention to their little bubble that they can't see how the motion of that ocean pushes their raft about in whorls too big for them to directly see. In order to explain the Ocean, I could try and build something really, really complicated, but it seems easier to just talk about something they're more familiar with, like their bathtub.

--Patrick
 
Why are you blaming Bush? He signed the first one before the wars were a twinkle in Osama's eye. Congress created and passed them, and it was a bipartisan effort. The senate was 50/50, and the republicans only held 9 more seats in the house than the democrats.

If anything, blame Obama who came in on a recovery act, then extended them in 2010 - again, passed by congress and signed by Obama.

If you're going to say that a president should have acted differently, then you should be blaming Obama, who saw both wars and didn't let them expire as they would have if congress and Obama simply not acted.

Quite frankly, though, it appears that they are simply flying by the seat of their pants. There's no US Federal Budget. If there were, it most certainly wouldn't be balanced. Right now they seem to be making the best decisions they can in the face of absolutely no planning, or even economic direction for the future.

This has been going on for so long that we're past considering their actions negligence, and well into gross negligence.
I do firmly place the blame for our current predicament on all presidents for the last 20 or so years, regardless of party affiliation. They've all allowed the banks to whittle away at the restrictions set up by FDR in the New Deal. It's entirely the reason we had the housing market crash due to all the junk loans that were allowed to go through and out of control loan policies that would have previously been not allowed. Regan, Clinton, Bush Sr, Bush Jr, all these presidents are responsible for allowing this to happen.
 
I wish people would stop comparing government budgets to household budgets. Every time I see it I feel myself getting dumber by proxy.
I know what you mean. If the government ran their budget like some people run their household, we'd be several decades past the fiscal cliff and well and truly at the bottom of the fiscal Laurentians.
 
...which is why I solicit an alternative. I know that when I try to discuss finances with people, I can see that once I try to talk about anything outside their personal finances, they just stop paying attention. It's my experience that your average person doesn't seem to realize that their financial universe is just a raft in a big, big ocean, and they pay so much attention to their little bubble that they can't see how the motion of that ocean pushes their raft about in whorls too big for them to directly see. In order to explain the Ocean, I could try and build something really, really complicated, but it seems easier to just talk about something they're more familiar with, like their bathtub.

--Patrick
Except the alternative doesn't help. It's so oversimplified it might as well be "Spend bad, tax bad!"
 
All I can glean from this episode CrimsonSoul is you wish to turn me into a muppet.

Let me explain why I feel this oversimplification is bad for the discussion by comparing it to how we in the US learned history. Think back to what we were taught. Wonderful pilgrims, happy natives see they are starving and help them recover by teaching them to make use of crops. Isn't that lovely? Nevermind how wrong it is, it's what most of us remember. Of course, Squanto was there because he had been taken to Europe to be a slave, escaped, found passage back to his village only to discover they were all wiped out by plague, it was in his self interest to help these people who just showed up.

Now, why did I tell this story? Because it shows that oversimplificatin of complex relationships does us a disservice. We are stupider for believing the simple version. It isn't a building block to learning the complexities of the issues since most people are happy to spew the bumper sticker slogans they hear from the festering blight of cable news. Any conversation involving the simplified story is pointless because it doesn't mean anything. Like the Thanksgiving myth. I don't know about you, but I find the complex story more fascinating and relatable than the simple one.
 
Let me try an analogy.

I am a very messy person. Over time, and particularly over the last year, my apartment has accumulated a very uncomfortable amount of filth, and I'm thinking I should do something about it. Cleaning all of it at once is not an option, as nobody has enough time to do it all. But I am resolved to do something about it, since if nothing is done, I might soon be swimming in shit.

During Christmas, as I had downed one too many glasses of eggnog, I promised myself to make a New Year's resolution where I'd reform my way of life. I'd both clean my apartment one room at a time over a certain period, and resolved to not be so messy in the future.

The problem is that I am lazy; I hate the mess, but I don't really want to clean, and I kind of like my care-free lifestyle. So now, I'm having second thoughts about this whole New Year's resolution thing. I have three options available to me:

1. I carry through with the promise, the sudden change being shock therapy and bringing about a great deal of personal stress at a time I really don't need any extra worries on my mind;
2. I break my promise and just forget about the whole thing, carrying on as before, hoping I'll get something together somehow at some point in the future;
3. I make a compromise and promise to clean a little bit every now and then, and make a little bit less mess. The Democratic side in me wants me to devote more of my free time to cleaning my apartment, whereas the Republican side in me wants me to not make so much mess in the first place. And I have to decide which side I'm going to listen to.

So you see the conundrum.
 
Ok, lets use your cleaning analogy. Right now some Republicans are suggesting we bleach the whole house, never mind the fumes and that in the long term it would actually be bad for us.
 
Well, the Republicans value their free time and prefer it if they don't have to spend more of it cleaning the house (no new taxes). They'd rather I should stop making such a mess in the first place (cut budget expenses). The Democrats want to keep on partying and making a mess (not reduce budget expenses), preferring to pressgang those who have a lot of free time into cleaning the house (hike taxes for the rich).

The two sides talk, and hopefully reach a compromise, likely consisting of less partying and more cleaning up. Too bad that, at this time, one would sort of really like to party and have a lot of free time, as the parents are coming over for a visit pretty soon. Which means no more partying, and no free time anymore.
 
Looking over the last fourty years, I call bullshit. Republicans are fiscally conservative until they hold the purse strings.

And what you call "partying" is grossly insulting to those who rely on that spending just to survive.
 
What 3 things eat up the majority of the federal budget? Medicare, Social Security, and defense spending. What three things do Republicans defend fanatically, to the detriment of all other things in this country? Medicare, Social Security, and defense spending. But sure, it's all those evil Democrats and their "partying".

Stop trying to make this a partisan problem.
 
Looking over the last fourty years, I call bullshit. Republicans are fiscally conservative until they hold the purse strings.

And what you call "partying" is grossly insulting to those who rely on that spending just to survive.
I do have a friend that refers to taking his insulin as 'partying' so..
 
What 3 things eat up the majority of the federal budget? Medicare, Social Security, and defense spending. What three things do Republicans defend fanatically, to the detriment of all other things in this country? Medicare, Social Security, and defense spending. But sure, it's all those evil Democrats and their "partying".

Stop trying to make this a partisan problem.
And that's just it, both parties are complacent in what has happened. Democrats need to be willing to cut spending while Republicans need to be willing to raise taxes. All of this should be done in small increments so as to prevent an economic free fall from the shock.
 
I don't pretend that the "household budget" analogy explains everything... merely that it makes the crisis easier to understand for the layman. Like me.

CrimsonSoul's graphic doesn't offer an explanation or a way out... it simply makes the problem easier to comprehend, rather than quoting a bunch of figures and leaving people like me scratching their heads.

I know that no solution will be simple, there will doubtless be some form of pain involved (and when you're juuuuust above breaking even as it is, that pain gets magnified a hundred-fold), and I can't pretend that I have the answers.

But now I understand the question better.
 
I don't see it as helpful, though. It would be as if I suggested taking care of the infrastructure in the country is like doing upkeep on a house, only with more zeros in the cost. It just doesn't work like that.
 
Looking over the last fourty years, I call bullshit. Republicans are fiscally conservative until they hold the purse strings.

And what you call "partying" is grossly insulting to those who rely on that spending just to survive.
Isn't the Republican position on this light on tax rises and heavier on spending cuts/freezes, though? I believe the fiscal cliff is what was under discussion here.

Regarding the partying comment, why so serious? That was only a light-hearted little story. But if somebody was really offended by it, then I retract 'partying' and replace it with 'spending'.
What 3 things eat up the majority of the federal budget? Medicare, Social Security, and defense spending. What three things do Republicans defend fanatically, to the detriment of all other things in this country? Medicare, Social Security, and defense spending. But sure, it's all those evil Democrats and their "partying".

Stop trying to make this a partisan problem.
Defence yes, though it is my understanding that the Republicans are generally viewed to be against entitlement programs, and have on several occasions been accused of 'attacking' Medicare and Social Security, Romney's campaign rhetoric to the contrary. I could of course be wrong, seeing as US domestic politics is of limited interest to me, but my quick google search does seem to support this.

As far as partisanship goes, I think you have two principle sides negotiating on this fiscal cliff, the Democrats and the Republicans. And both are engaging heavily in brinkmanship. So I imagine partisanship might be a part of the problem.
And that's just it, both parties are complacent in what has happened. Democrats need to be willing to cut spending while Republicans need to be willing to raise taxes. All of this should be done in small increments so as to prevent an economic free fall from the shock.
Agreed, a balanced approach would seem like the best way forward. Now we'll just have to see if sufficient political will exists to bring that compromise about.
 
I don't think it will happen. The GOP is calling for medicare cuts and the Dems are saying no. Meanwhile, even the goofy plan B couldn't pass the house this past month, and that was a Republican party wet dream.

Get ready for that cliff (which is more like being a snowball at the top of a hill). We'll be rolling over that edge soon I believe.

What will happen is these clowns will do nothing and then the Dems will introduce tax cuts for those who make under a certain amount. There's no way the Republicans won't vote for a tax cut, so they'll get nothing in return for it. Honestly, the whole thing leaves me baffled.
 
It's possible a deal won't happen. Though if that becomes likely, I'd expect Obama to finish with a modest proposal that is unacceptable to the Republican position. They'll shoot it down, after which they get the blame for causing the fiscal cliff to happen, and Obama makes the best political advantage out of a bad situation.
 
...until the next major political crisis, which will happen in about two weeks or so - depending on the attention span of Fox News and/or CNN.
 
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