I have to agree. Economically, China wouldn't back N.K. up. China needs the west for trade (various reason listed on other forums) and vice versa. Going into war would disrupt that.I don't think it'll escalate into a third world war. Who's N.K.'s biggest ally on principle? China. Who does China depend on for massive exports Europe and the U.S. Every country in the world has no legitimate economical principle to back up North Korea.
The only major concern I would have is South Korea getting nuked into the stone age by Kim Jong iL.
I believe it is more of a territory decision. If Korea are united, it is more likely to be more democratic than communist. This mean the "west" will have another place to setup military base.Why does China even like North Korea? Us commies gotta stick together? Should be appearant to even China that North Korea is about as communist as a person eating a pork chop is a vegetarian. China needs to realize this relationship is crap and isn't gonna get better. They should totally dump North Korea in public. Scream that they never liked them anyway, burn all their stuff and find someone that likes only eating salad!
This is likely going to be what causes China to put their foot down. This is a very public, very aggressive, VERY unprovoked attack. China won't back them if South Korea decides to fight back, even if they have US help.It has been like that since the cease fire about 50 years ago (1953 - cease fire right?) The North continue to rattle its saber on and off. I guess China is seeing how far N.K. willing to go before big brother put his foot down.
This is likely going to be what causes China to put their foot down. This is a very public, very aggressive, VERY unprovoked attack. China won't back them if South Korea decides to fight back, even if they have US help.[/QUOTE]It has been like that since the cease fire about 50 years ago (1953 - cease fire right?) The North continue to rattle its saber on and off. I guess China is seeing how far N.K. willing to go before big brother put his foot down.
This is likely going to be what causes China to put their foot down. This is a very public, very aggressive, VERY unprovoked attack. China won't back them if South Korea decides to fight back, even if they have US help.[/QUOTE]It has been like that since the cease fire about 50 years ago (1953 - cease fire right?) The North continue to rattle its saber on and off. I guess China is seeing how far N.K. willing to go before big brother put his foot down.
uh huh.You guys better hope and pray that this does not escalate. NK on their own will be fairly formidable. They have the ability to shell almost all of South Korea, and lay waste to Seoul. This would be warfare like we have not seen since Korea 60 years ago. NK can likely bring as many men to a fight as we can bring bullets.
Our main hope is that they will be facing us with 1970's Tech. But my real hope is that they will face us with 1950's Tactics.
You guys better hope and pray that this does not escalate. NK on their own will be fairly formidable. They have the ability to shell almost all of South Korea, and lay waste to Seoul. This would be warfare like we have not seen since Korea 60 years ago. NK can likely bring as many men to a fight as we can bring bullets.
Our main hope is that they will be facing us with 1970's Tech. But my real hope is that they will face us with 1950's Tactics.
uh huh.You guys better hope and pray that this does not escalate. NK on their own will be fairly formidable. They have the ability to shell almost all of South Korea, and lay waste to Seoul. This would be warfare like we have not seen since Korea 60 years ago. NK can likely bring as many men to a fight as we can bring bullets.
Our main hope is that they will be facing us with 1970's Tech. But my real hope is that they will face us with 1950's Tactics.
I think the American public has, to some degree (and despite the right's rhetoric), become gun shy. We are already stuck in the middle east trying to fix the countries we waged war on. If it was going to be wham-bam-thank-you-ma'am, then maybe, but we also don't want to leave a power vacuum, nor give North Korea even more reason to lean on China. But I don't think that Obama is keen to become the guy that indirectly badmouthed the choice to enter into wars past, then enters into one himself.What stops America from turning N.Korea into a smoking crater with conventional ordinance?
As far as I am aware, all China has done so far is promise that it will defend n.Korea against invasion. If it were to attempt to interfere in the American defense of South Korea, it would probably be an act of war. For the aforementioned reasons, china can not fight a conventional war with America which means that it's only options should the DPRK attack the south areThreats/interference from China maybe?
Civilians. Same shit that has tied our hands behind our back in the Middle East.
Seoul (Capital and Largest City in SK) is well within range of North Korea's artillery. It's been estimated they have more than enough conventional ordnance to level A LOT of the city. Any action America takes it going to be after the fact (so we don't piss of China), so your looking at a scenario where SK loses tens/hundreds of thousands of people in the first barrage. If they get NUKES, we're talking millions.So, hypothetically, N. Korea declares total war on S. Korea. What stops America from turning N.Korea into a smoking crater with conventional ordinance?
If the americans went into North Korea, I firmly believe that they would be able to destroy the DPRK's ability to mount any military action within hours. No retaliation would be possible. The real reason they can't go in is that China is backing N.Korea up with it's nuclear arsenal, plain and simple.In other words, the thing keeping America from stomping NK is the thousands/millions who would die in retaliatory strikes against civilian targets. No one would stop us from rolling through the country in that scenario, but the costs are simply far to great. Hence why we've stuck with diplomatic solutions despite the fact they've openly and brazenly murdered Americans over things as stupid as a tree. Though I must admit, Operation Paul Bunyan sounds like something out of a movie.
So what happens when/if some little Hitler wannabe comes around and doesn't give a shit about civilians and nukes anyway? (from any side)Civilians. Same shit that has tied our hands behind our back in the Middle East.
So what happens when/if some little Hitler wannabe comes around and doesn't give a shit about civilians and nukes anyway? (from any side)[/QUOTE]Civilians. Same shit that has tied our hands behind our back in the Middle East.
*scratches head* I thought it was more because they don't want foreign military bases (Read: US) on their border, which would happen should NK fall.The only reason they support NK is because they are a useful buffer to prevent the spread of democracy and western values.
Afghanistan and Iraq...two different wars, so do I remember what happened in 2001 when we invaded and took over? I was serving and had friends who invaded. Then again in March 2003, when shock and awe fell flat because of the targets we could actually hit because of human shields being placed in palaces...Same as before, I can't spit without hitting someone I know who was in the invasion.What you are describing is what happened in a peacekeeping operation against an insurgency. Do you remember what happened 9 years ago when that conflict actually started? Iraq's entire military and government was dismantled in 5 days. The same would happen in an American/north Korean conflict.
Reason: Came across a bit harsh and self-righteous
No, you are right, I shouldn't have worded that so.. douchily. Sorry.And please do not lecture me on places I have been, and things I have done.
uh huh.You guys better hope and pray that this does not escalate. NK on their own will be fairly formidable. They have the ability to shell almost all of South Korea, and lay waste to Seoul. This would be warfare like we have not seen since Korea 60 years ago. NK can likely bring as many men to a fight as we can bring bullets.
Our main hope is that they will be facing us with 1970's Tech. But my real hope is that they will face us with 1950's Tactics.
A military paycheck? Hell I'll take that! Seriously though, that is a very scary thought and probably right. In the sense that military bases would be set up with refugee camps around/in them. Or that the bases would move to the middle of civilian areas.DocSeverin said:Those who don't try to flee to China will be used as human shields (willingly mind you) to prevent the damage of certain places, I would be willing to put a months paycheck on it.
Close, it is not the civilian casualties that we would inflict, but the North on the South. There is just no way to stop all the artillery that they are sitting on before 10's of thousands are killed in Seoul. If we struck the North first, the United States would be blamed for the actions of Mr. Kim.I have to agree with Six. The problem of using nuke or high level weapons to "level the place" is the high level of civilian casualties. Right now the U.S. can't afford more bad press.
The biggest issue is the simple fact that NO ONE wants to rebuild North Korea. It's a fairly sizable second/third-world nation with a large population that has been brainwashed to fear and hate outsiders over the last 50 years. It's going to cost TRILLIONS of dollars to restore it's infrastructure, update it's industries, and make it a more hospitable place to live... money which the US and Japan can't afford to spend, South Korea doesn't have, and China needs to grow it's own industries. This all means that even if the current regime is ousted, NK is still basically fucked because no has the means to fix their problems.Obviously SK has claim to it, but where does the 800 pound gorrilla sit?
No I knew that, was making a joke. Clearly my jocular skills are at an all time low. I blame poor parenting.Necronic has no idea that a military paycheck is not that big. Civilians make more. A lot more.[/URL]
You have a point. Although, I think both SK and JP could severely reduce the size/cost of their militaries if NK was out of the picture, which could help pay for a rebuilding. It still does raise a lot of questions about how you could possibly rebuild it though:Ashburner said:The biggest issue is the simple fact that NO ONE wants to rebuild North Korea. It's a fairly sizable second/third-world nation with a large population that has been brainwashed to fear and hate outsiders over the last 50 years. It's going to cost TRILLIONS of dollars to restore it's infrastructure, update it's industries, and make it a more hospitable place to live... money which the US and Japan can't afford to spend, South Korea doesn't have, and China needs to grow it's own industries. This all means that even if the current regime is ousted, NK is still basically fucked because no has the means to fix their problems.
Well.. if SK absorbs them, wouldn't it technically be a single country? also people should be able to move freely within a country right?You have a point. Although, I think both SK and JP could severely reduce the size/cost of their militaries if NK was out of the picture, which could help pay for a rebuilding. It still does raise a lot of questions about how you could possibly rebuild it though:
1) If you just absorb NK into SK it would destroy the SK economy (lowered GDP for instance).
2) Even if you made it a protectorate or somehow removed the potentially damaging effects of blending economies, how could you prevent the desire of NKs to immigrate to SK?
3) I heard a story that the few NKs who had escaped to join society in SK were severely behind in education, and in some cases were developmentally disabled from malnultrition. Not only would you be getting a mass immigration that you couldn't handle immediately, it would be of very poorly educated people that wouldn't integrate into a first world economy.
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The only way I could see it working is by hiring the entire NK population to rebuild their own side of the border, with oversight/funding by SK/JP/US/China. The first step would be in building quality schools and hospitals and getting them staffed by SK personell, which would ensure that the next generation would have the tools to operate in SK/1st world economies.
But that then raises the question of how do you pay them, and moreover do you still allow them to immigrate? You can't afford to pay them a wage that is on par with SK economic standards, but on the other hand if you pay them too little then you are turning them into slaves. If you still allow them to immigrate then there is no guarantee that the workforce will stay, if you don't then you have just liberated an entire country only to enslave them.
heh.. so I guess year after year of doing military exercise in the same place (article said yearly event) NK finally had it and attack huh?Necronic has no idea that a military paycheck is not that big. Civilians make more. A lot more.
And according to NK, THEY PROVOKED US!!!
But wasn't East Berlin in better shape? (I suck at history)People said much the same thing about rebuilding/restoring East Berlin.
East Germany wasn't nearly as big, nor did it have nearly as many people, nor was the indoctrination as strong. It was also in better shape. I'm pretty sure the US was in a better position to help fund a fledgling capitalistic country as well.People said much the same thing about rebuilding/restoring East Berlin.
For 'communists' they definitely have big business vagueries down pat.We have taken note of relevant reports and express our concern. Relevant facts need to be verified and we hope both parties make more contributions to the stability of the peninsula," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said.
you know that the new wars are not done via weapons anymore. It is all about business.Love this quote from China:
For 'communists' they definitely have big business vagueries down pat.We have taken note of relevant reports and express our concern. Relevant facts need to be verified and we hope both parties make more contributions to the stability of the peninsula," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said.
you know that the new wars are not done via weapons anymore. It is all about business.[/QUOTE]Love this quote from China:
For 'communists' they definitely have big business vagueries down pat.We have taken note of relevant reports and express our concern. Relevant facts need to be verified and we hope both parties make more contributions to the stability of the peninsula," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said.
East Germany wasn't nearly as big, nor did it have nearly as many people, nor was the indoctrination as strong. It was also in better shape. I'm pretty sure the US was in a better position to help fund a fledgling capitalistic country as well.[/QUOTE]People said much the same thing about rebuilding/restoring East Berlin.
China has signalled its readiness to accept Korean reunification and is privately distancing itself from the North Korean regime, according to leaked US embassy cables that reveal senior Beijing figures regard their official ally as a "spoiled child".
The leaked North Korea dispatches detail how:
• South Korea's vice-foreign minister said he was told by two named senior Chinese officials that they believed Korea should be reunified under Seoul's control, and that this view was gaining ground with the leadership in Beijing.
• China's vice-foreign minister told US officials that Pyongyang was behaving like a "spoiled child" to get Washington's attention in April 2009 by carrying out missile tests.
• A Chinese ambassador warned that North Korean nuclear activity was "a threat to the whole world's security".
• Chinese officials assessed that it could cope with an influx of 300,000 North Koreans in the event of serious instability, according to a representative of an international agency, but might need to use the military to seal the border.
In highly sensitive discussions in February this year, the-then South Korean vice-foreign minister, Chun Yung-woo, told a US ambassador, Kathleen Stephens, that younger generation Chinese Communist party leaders no longer regarded North Korea as a useful or reliable ally and would not risk renewed armed conflict on the peninsula, according to a secret cable to Washington.
Chun, who has since been appointed national security adviser to South Korea's president, said North Korea had already collapsed economically.
Political collapse would ensue once Kim Jong-il died, despite the dictator's efforts to obtain Chinese help and to secure the succession for his son, Kim Jong-un.
"Citing private conversations during previous sessions of the six-party talks , Chun claimed [the two high-level officials] believed Korea should be unified under ROK [South Korea] control," Stephens reported.
"The two officials, Chun said, were ready to 'face the new reality' that the DPRK [North Korea] now had little value to China as a buffer state – a view that, since North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006, had reportedly gained traction among senior PRC [People's Republic of China] leaders. Chun argued that in the event of a North Korean collapse, China would clearly 'not welcome' any US military presence north of the DMZ [demilitarised zone]. Again citing his conversations with [the officials], Chun said the PRC would be comfortable with a reunified Korea controlled by Seoul and anchored to the US in a 'benign alliance' – as long as Korea was not hostile towards China. Tremendous trade and labour-export opportunities for Chinese companies, Chun said, would also help 'salve' PRC concerns about … a reunified Korea.
"Chun dismissed the prospect of a possible PRC military intervention in the event of a DPRK collapse, noting that China's strategic economic interests now lie with the United States, Japan and South Korea – not North Korea."
Chun told Stephens China was unable to persuade Pyongyang to change its self-defeating policies – Beijing had "much less influence than most people believe" – and lacked the will to enforce its views.
A senior Chinese official, speaking off the record, also said China's influence with the North was frequently overestimated. But Chinese public opinion was increasingly critical of the North's behaviour, the official said, and that was reflected in changed government thinking.
Previously hidden tensions between Pyongyang and its only ally were also exposed by China's then vice-foreign minister in a meeting in April 2009 with a US embassy official after North Korea blasted a three-stage rocket over Japan into the Pacific. Pyongyang said its purpose was to send a satellite into orbit but the US, South Korea and Japan saw the launch as a test of long-range missile technology
Agreed. I think having this info go public is a loss of face to China. Hopefully it won't result in them taking a more pro-DPRK stance to salvage what influence they have there.I'm worried that the the leaking of this information will worsen the situation.
Oh Wikileaks. Thank God they leaked this or else this situation might not have gotten any more f-ed up than it already is.
They have. It hasn't been incredibly successful, but they are getting hit. WikiLeaks reports another electronic disruption - CNN.comI am shocked that Wikileaks has not been hit by a cyber, or actual attack.
Lets hope China pushes for a free and economically allied Korea (allied to both US and China.)
There is a reason why they hire mathematics, economic, and logic GENIUSES into government think-tanks in order to decommission and declassify information. While I'm all for open government, the reality is that it's not how the world works in the least bit. The operators of wiki-leaks can idealize all they want. It's dangerous to just throw government secrets out into the open.Why can't Wikileaks just get shut down? Why is what they are doing NOT treasonous? If you think that these things are not putting lives in danger then you are either naive or humoring yourself.
Let me give you an example of how this could be damaging and dangerous based on things we've already said in this very thread.
Before Wikileaks:
North Korea rattles their saber but won't directly attack. They know that China will back them up against the US so they know they can push so far. Tension is in the area but nothing substantial.
After Wikileaks:
NK knows China is for the dissolution of the country. They have nothing to lose.
Because it's founder is Australian and it's not treason when you do it to other countries? OK, I know your talking about the people leaking the files, but you walked into that one!Why is what they are doing NOT treasonous?
Because it's founder is Australian and it's not treason when you do it to other countries? OK, I know your talking about the people leaking the files, but you walked into that one!Why is what they are doing NOT treasonous?
Because it's founder is Australian and it's not treason when you do it to other countries? OK, I know your talking about the people leaking the files, but you walked into that one!Why is what they are doing NOT treasonous?
This is what I fear. It is like India and Pakistan. When you push a mouse into a corner, that mouse WILL fight back when it realize it has nothing to lose.Why can't Wikileaks just get shut down? Why is what they are doing NOT treasonous? If you think that these things are not putting lives in danger then you are either naive or humoring yourself.
Let me give you an example of how this could be damaging and dangerous based on things we've already said in this very thread.
Before Wikileaks:
North Korea rattles their saber but won't directly attack. They know that China will back them up against the US so they know they can push so far. Tension is in the area but nothing substantial.
After Wikileaks:
NK knows China is for the dissolution of the country. They have nothing to lose.
Because it's founder is Australian and it's not treason when you do it to other countries? OK, I know your talking about the people leaking the files, but you walked into that one!Why is what they are doing NOT treasonous?