E
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uh huh.
So, hypothetically, N. Korea declares total war on S. Korea. What stops America from turning N.Korea into a smoking crater with conventional ordinance?
E: Or for that matter, whats to stop S.Korea from doing the same? The South Korean air force is leagues ahead of the North's. Contrary to what might seem obvious, when you pit a (to use a situationally appropriate analogy) zerg rush of lowtech fighter jets against more modern ones, the modern ones will always win. The only limiting factor on how many MiG-21s an f-16 Fighting Falcon can shoot down is the amount of ordinance it can carry.
And thats a lot of ordinance.[/QUOTE]
What also ties our hands is the casualties that NK and inflict on SK in a matter of moments with artillery, rocketry/ballistic missiles, chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. Their ballistic missile systems can also hit Japan. If they can get off a lucky shot, Alaska or Washington State.
NK has a much better defensive plan than Iraq. NK is mountains and forest, plenty of places to hide tanks. They are dug in like a WWI nightmare. The Chinese and the Soviets have been selling them decent arms for 6 decades.
C
Chibibar
I have to agree with Six. The problem of using nuke or high level weapons to "level the place" is the high level of civilian casualties. Right now the U.S. can't afford more bad press. The U.S. is already on bad sides with many countries for two wars (yea we got threads on those too). U.S. dollar is weakening and the people are not happy.
Can you imagine the chaos when the government decides to "wipe a country off the face of the earth?" it would be a total nightmare.
Also Six is right about weaponry. I'm sure N.K. got some back up plan in case "shit hit the fan" One of the things I learn psychology is that people will go into fight or fright mode when put into a corner. Also human tend to go into "heroic mode" when all other options are moot. i.e. you are gonna die, might as well take as many with you anyway mentality.
I remember a quote from a book called "Alas, Babylon" "When the enemies think they can get away with it, you already lost the war" (regarding having and using nukes as deterrent)
Can you imagine the chaos when the government decides to "wipe a country off the face of the earth?" it would be a total nightmare.
Also Six is right about weaponry. I'm sure N.K. got some back up plan in case "shit hit the fan" One of the things I learn psychology is that people will go into fight or fright mode when put into a corner. Also human tend to go into "heroic mode" when all other options are moot. i.e. you are gonna die, might as well take as many with you anyway mentality.
I remember a quote from a book called "Alas, Babylon" "When the enemies think they can get away with it, you already lost the war" (regarding having and using nukes as deterrent)
I'm pretty sure a nuclear option is not on the table at the moment. In addition to the reasons stated above and the bad press and strategic high risks involved in nuclear first-use in the region even in a theoretical case of no civilian damage, when you strip away all the posturing, this affair seems like a mere border incident involving an exchange of artillery fire. Given the current situation, I'm having difficulties seeing how any of the parties hope to benefit from military escalation.
I am also not convinced of some of the lower estimates presented here on how much time it would take for conventional forces to reduce the north korean military to a state of incapability of retaliating against south korean targets. In the Gulf War, ground operations were preceded by an aerial bombardment campaign lasting for more than a month, and this was in an operational environment generally considered well-suited to the use of air power - there is little cover on the ground in a desert. The terrain in North Korea is quite different, so I view it as unlikely that the north korean military can be brought to it's knees before they can inflict unacceptable levels of damage to civilian targets down south. Especially since surprise is difficult to achieve, considering how hard it would be to conceal the build-up of forces necessary for a large-scale attack.
I am also not convinced of some of the lower estimates presented here on how much time it would take for conventional forces to reduce the north korean military to a state of incapability of retaliating against south korean targets. In the Gulf War, ground operations were preceded by an aerial bombardment campaign lasting for more than a month, and this was in an operational environment generally considered well-suited to the use of air power - there is little cover on the ground in a desert. The terrain in North Korea is quite different, so I view it as unlikely that the north korean military can be brought to it's knees before they can inflict unacceptable levels of damage to civilian targets down south. Especially since surprise is difficult to achieve, considering how hard it would be to conceal the build-up of forces necessary for a large-scale attack.
Necronic
Staff member
A military paycheck? Hell I'll take that! Seriously though, that is a very scary thought and probably right. In the sense that military bases would be set up with refugee camps around/in them. Or that the bases would move to the middle of civilian areas.DocSeverin said:
War with NK would be very very different from Iraq/Afghanistan. It would start as a more conventional war, and it would stay as one much much longer. The good news is that we would definitely have support from both South Korea and Japan (and possibly even Russia?) A better way of looking at it would be that we are supporting them. I don't think that NK would maintain a paramilitary/militia/guerilla force like we have seen in the ME. This is a different kind of situation than the middle east.
The best case scenario would be a pre-emptive highly coordinated strike by SK/US/JP with tacit approval from China (look the other way, make weak statements against it, no intervention) in which we take out all of their air fields and hopefully cripple their navy, as well as getting special forces on the ground to all suspected nuclear weapons facilities. After that I won't say it would be a walk in the park or anything, but with air/naval superiority and no fear of nuclear retaliation a conventional war would be very much in the allies favor.
If a conventional war was won, I have a suspicion that it would end there. Il would surrender/capitulate or there would be a military coup to hand over power to the allies. There simply aren't the resources or morale amongst civilians to maintain a guerilla campaign.
The occupation would be financially much easier on America, as it would be handled by a combination of SK, JP, and China, who finally decide to get in on the party after the war is over. Yet again Russia may throw some troops down, who knows. Since the nation would be have such a crippled infrastructure it would make more sense to have it be absorbed by another nation, which would be either SK or China. This would be a very tricky situation. Obviously SK has claim to it, but where does the 800 pound gorrilla sit?
Long story short, there is a part of me that thinks that we need to jump on the oppurtunity to finish this once and for all. The government is in a downswing right now as Il gets older and a power transition becomes inevitable. There are some recently spurned military leaders still in positions of authority. And most importantly, the longer we wait the more of a nuclear arsenal they will be able to build. The longer they can add to that the more difficult this power shift will be.
Really there isn't a country on this planet I find more terrifying than North Korea.
Close, it is not the civilian casualties that we would inflict, but the North on the South. There is just no way to stop all the artillery that they are sitting on before 10's of thousands are killed in Seoul. If we struck the North first, the United States would be blamed for the actions of Mr. Kim.
Dave
Staff member
Necronic has no idea that a military paycheck is not that big. Civilians make more. A lot more.
And according to NK, THEY PROVOKED US!!!
And according to NK, THEY PROVOKED US!!!
yeah, those shells splashing in the water makes it OK to kill civilians...
The biggest issue is the simple fact that NO ONE wants to rebuild North Korea. It's a fairly sizable second/third-world nation with a large population that has been brainwashed to fear and hate outsiders over the last 50 years. It's going to cost TRILLIONS of dollars to restore it's infrastructure, update it's industries, and make it a more hospitable place to live... money which the US and Japan can't afford to spend, South Korea doesn't have, and China needs to grow it's own industries. This all means that even if the current regime is ousted, NK is still basically fucked because no has the means to fix their problems.
Necronic
Staff member
No I knew that, was making a joke. Clearly my jocular skills are at an all time low. I blame poor parenting.
You have a point. Although, I think both SK and JP could severely reduce the size/cost of their militaries if NK was out of the picture, which could help pay for a rebuilding. It still does raise a lot of questions about how you could possibly rebuild it though:Ashburner said:
1) If you just absorb NK into SK it would destroy the SK economy (lowered GDP for instance).
2) Even if you made it a protectorate or somehow removed the potentially damaging effects of blending economies, how could you prevent the desire of NKs to immigrate to SK?
3) I heard a story that the few NKs who had escaped to join society in SK were severely behind in education, and in some cases were developmentally disabled from malnultrition. Not only would you be getting a mass immigration that you couldn't handle immediately, it would be of very poorly educated people that wouldn't integrate into a first world economy.
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The only way I could see it working is by hiring the entire NK population to rebuild their own side of the border, with oversight/funding by SK/JP/US/China. The first step would be in building quality schools and hospitals and getting them staffed by SK personell, which would ensure that the next generation would have the tools to operate in SK/1st world economies.
But that then raises the question of how do you pay them, and moreover do you still allow them to immigrate? You can't afford to pay them a wage that is on par with SK economic standards, but on the other hand if you pay them too little then you are turning them into slaves. If you still allow them to immigrate then there is no guarantee that the workforce will stay, if you don't then you have just liberated an entire country only to enslave them.
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Chibibar
Well.. if SK absorbs them, wouldn't it technically be a single country? also people should be able to move freely within a country right?
This can cause a problem if lots of people either flee or move to a better place than where they are now. I agree that the SK government would have to institute rebuilding program that can hire local NK or SK could go to NK to rebuilt. It will take LOTS of money and resource.
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Chibibar
heh.. so I guess year after year of doing military exercise in the same place (article said yearly event) NK finally had it and attack huh?
---------- Post added at 11:12 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:11 AM ----------
But wasn't East Berlin in better shape? (I suck at history)
East Germany wasn't nearly as big, nor did it have nearly as many people, nor was the indoctrination as strong. It was also in better shape. I'm pretty sure the US was in a better position to help fund a fledgling capitalistic country as well.
C
Chibibar
you know that the new wars are not done via weapons anymore. It is all about business.
you know that the new wars are not done via weapons anymore. It is all about business.[/QUOTE]
The UK initially rose to power due to their success in the "trade wars" which were primarily economic. Similarly the US rose to power due to early industrialization efforts which quickly surpassed Europe in the same way we lost the steel industry to china because we didn't invest in new machines, techniques, and technologies aggressively enough. The same thing is happening now with computer and information technology, though we have yet to see who the winner is going to be.
Economic wars have long been waged.
I
Iaculus
East Germany wasn't nearly as big, nor did it have nearly as many people, nor was the indoctrination as strong. It was also in better shape. I'm pretty sure the US was in a better position to help fund a fledgling capitalistic country as well.[/QUOTE]
And it wasn't losing a quarter-million people per year to starvation.
S
Soliloquy
I realize I'm about a week late to the discussion, but my view on the matter is this:
North Korea will get off more or less Scott-Free from this, as they do with, say, everything. They're pushing to see just how far they can get away with, and so far nothing they have done, from creating nukes to sinking ships to shooting at civilians, has caused any more punishment to their own country than a few sanctions.
And things will continue this way until North Korea actually invades some part of the south. And maybe it'll even continue after that.
North Korea will get off more or less Scott-Free from this, as they do with, say, everything. They're pushing to see just how far they can get away with, and so far nothing they have done, from creating nukes to sinking ships to shooting at civilians, has caused any more punishment to their own country than a few sanctions.
And things will continue this way until North Korea actually invades some part of the south. And maybe it'll even continue after that.
S
Soliloquy
I'm worried that the the leaking of this information will worsen the situation. Kim Jong Il now knows that China is likely going to let N. Korea collapse after his death, and I think that makes him more likely to do something truly crazy before he dies.
Though it is comforting to know that a world war will be avoided.
Though it is comforting to know that a world war will be avoided.
Interesting. Perhaps China is gauging to see what's on offer if they agree to jettison North Korea.
I wonder if the chinese call for emergency talks is a bit of back-pedalling in response to the Wikileaked documents.
Edit:
I wonder if the chinese call for emergency talks is a bit of back-pedalling in response to the Wikileaked documents.
Edit:
Agreed. I think having this info go public is a loss of face to China. Hopefully it won't result in them taking a more pro-DPRK stance to salvage what influence they have there.
K
Kiff
I'm not really sure what wikileaks is attempting to accomplish, honestly. Top Secret, Secret, and Classified files are such for a reason.
I am shocked that Wikileaks has not been hit by a cyber, or actual attack.
Lets hope China pushes for a free and economically allied Korea (allied to both US and China.)
Lets hope China pushes for a free and economically allied Korea (allied to both US and China.)
Dave
Staff member
Why can't Wikileaks just get shut down? Why is what they are doing NOT treasonous? If you think that these things are not putting lives in danger then you are either naive or humoring yourself.
Let me give you an example of how this could be damaging and dangerous based on things we've already said in this very thread.
Before Wikileaks:
North Korea rattles their saber but won't directly attack. They know that China will back them up against the US so they know they can push so far. Tension is in the area but nothing substantial.
After Wikileaks:
NK knows China is for the dissolution of the country. They have nothing to lose.
Let me give you an example of how this could be damaging and dangerous based on things we've already said in this very thread.
Before Wikileaks:
North Korea rattles their saber but won't directly attack. They know that China will back them up against the US so they know they can push so far. Tension is in the area but nothing substantial.
After Wikileaks:
NK knows China is for the dissolution of the country. They have nothing to lose.
They have. It hasn't been incredibly successful, but they are getting hit. WikiLeaks reports another electronic disruption - CNN.com
K
Kiff
There is a reason why they hire mathematics, economic, and logic GENIUSES into government think-tanks in order to decommission and declassify information. While I'm all for open government, the reality is that it's not how the world works in the least bit. The operators of wiki-leaks can idealize all they want. It's dangerous to just throw government secrets out into the open.
Because it's founder is Australian and it's not treason when you do it to other countries? OK, I know your talking about the people leaking the files, but you walked into that one!
I think it's public opinion that really determines what is and isn't treason. There IS a reason most people get angry when they read this stuff and it's not because they think it shouldn't have been released... it's because they had no idea just what people were doing IN THEIR NAME. And honestly... if this group can bring to light even one instance of gross injustice, they are alright in my books. After all, lots of people were upset at the folks who exposed the Watergate Scandal and Nixon's illegal activities too.
Dave
Staff member
Because it's founder is Australian and it's not treason when you do it to other countries? OK, I know your talking about the people leaking the files, but you walked into that one!
I think it's public opinion that really determines what is and isn't treason. There IS a reason most people get angry when they read this stuff and it's not because they think it shouldn't have been released... it's because they had no idea just what people were doing IN THEIR NAME. And honestly... if this group can bring to light even one instance of gross injustice, they are alright in my books. After all, lots of people were upset at the folks who exposed the Watergate Scandal and Nixon's illegal activities too.[/QUOTE]
For some reason I thought they were in the US but that's incorrect. They are hosted in Sweden.
K
Kiff
Because it's founder is Australian and it's not treason when you do it to other countries? OK, I know your talking about the people leaking the files, but you walked into that one!
I think it's public opinion that really determines what is and isn't treason. There IS a reason most people get angry when they read this stuff and it's not because they think it shouldn't have been released... it's because they had no idea just what people were doing IN THEIR NAME. And honestly... if this group can bring to light even one instance of gross injustice, they are alright in my books. After all, lots of people were upset at the folks who exposed the Watergate Scandal and Nixon's illegal activities too.[/QUOTE]
For some reason I thought they were in the US but that's incorrect. They are hosted in Sweden.[/QUOTE]
The U.S. and U.K. feds are trying to crack down and see if what wikileaks is doing breaks international laws.
Is it ironic that they are hosted in Sweden due to extremely tight privacy laws yet they are busy exposing secret documents themselves?
C
Chibibar
This is what I fear. It is like India and Pakistan. When you push a mouse into a corner, that mouse WILL fight back when it realize it has nothing to lose.
NK may decides to just push the button KNOWING that big brother (China) is not going to back him up.
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