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A few friends and I were recently debating our predictions for this coming weekend's box office. Ie: The Expendables vs Scott Pilgrim. What do you think?

This is not a "which movie are you more interested in seeing" poll, this is What you think is going to perform better. Though for me, the answer to both questions does happen to be the same.

I think that the early reviews and pretty hefty PR campaign for Scott Pilgrim are going to see it outgross the Expendables, which despite looking like a hella action flick, is getting rough early reviews. I don't have TV so maybe its ad campaign has been bigger, but I see way more ads for Scott Pilgrim all over the internet and all over the city.

Or will Inception just take it again?
Thoughts?

I haven't even heard of The Expendables and I follow coming releases a lot. If the advertising's not there, it's not going to make the bigger box office.

You've heard of it, I'm sure. Its the one with Sylvester Stallone, Jason Statham, Jet Li, Steve Austen, Dolph Lundgren, Mickey Rourke, Bruce Willis and Arnold Schwarzennegar and probably other action stars I can't remember now.

According to Hollywood Stock Exchange and Box Office Mojo, Expendables is released on 3000+ screens, Scott Pilgrim on 2600+screens, and Eat Pray Love on 2800+ screens. Just looking at those three releases, it seems that while Eat Pray Love is targeting women and Expendables is targeting men, Scott Pilgrim could get the long-term couples who would rather see a movie together (and it seems to be a better date movie). Keep in mind that Inception was on 3400+ screens last week, and lost only 127 screens from the previous week.

I call Inception re-takes #1, with three wide releases and last week's The Other Guys splitting the audience, Expendables #2, Scott Pilgrim #3, The Other Guys #4, and Eat Pray Love #5.

That's only taking adults into consideration.

I think Scott Pilgrim is gonna get a lot of teenagers/college-agers in.

I foresee Inception slipping to number 2.

Eat Pray Love has the chick/Sex in the City audience.
Scott Pilgrim has the comic book audience, as well as the Edgar Wright audience and a LOT of positive feedback from advance screenings.
Expendables has the guy audience for big, dumb action flicks. It's also the MOST loaded for stars.

I think all three are going to do well, since each of them are catering to different kinds of audiences. I know a number of friends who are doing a double billing of Pilgrim AND Expendables the same night or weekend. I'm strongly considering it, myself, because they're both going to be awesome.

I hope they mop the fucking floor with the hair of Julia Roberts.

I am hoping Scott Pilgrim smashes all comers, because every bit of footage and info I see on it looks jizztastic. I'm probably going to see that and The Expendables, though.

lol Inception isn't winning for the 5th week in a row. Just this weekend it already went down a bunch and The Other Guys won the weekend handily.

There is no such thing as an Edgar Wright audience. No one in America has half a fucking clue who he is. There's also no "comic-book audience" for Scott Pilgrim since he doesn't wear a mask and fight crime. Scott Pilgrim is going to win the weekend probably because it's A) PG-13 and B) it's hip and cool as fuck and has more than one person in it that is under 30. Just going off the top of my head, for the three new releases, I'll guess:

Scott Pilgrim $35m
Eat Pray Love $28m
Expendables $25m

Dude, have you ever BEEN to a comic book store in the last few years? Pilgrim, most especially in Canada, is a huge hit and is constantly suggested reading among clerks. I didn't say "superhero" audience, I said "comic book" audience; the people who walk into a comic book store on a semi-regular basis. The last volume of Scott Pilgrim sold out of its first run and I guarantee the vast majority of people who read it are seeing it opening weekend. Don't try arguing with me on this shit. You're right on the rest, though.

"No one" in North America? Right. That's over-embellishing. Try "no one who pays attentions to directors" or "no one who looks at the credits" or "no one who reads IMDB".

I still think Expendables is going to be second place, though. To hell with Julia Roberts.

Any US city street, if you asked 100 random people who Edgar Wright is, I bet my life you wouldn't get more than 5 answers.

I know what the "comic book audience" is. I just don't think outside of masked superheroes it has much of an impact on movie box office. Where was the big bump for "The Losers" based on its comic background? I would bet that RED would make nearly the same amount of money with the DC logo or without.

Are you sure you think Expendables will beat EPL, or do you just want it? I'm no Julia Roberts fan, but there hasn't been an adult romantic comedy in a while. Also, Eat Pray Love is based on a book that I guarantee you more people have read than every volume of Scott Pilgrim combined.

pilgrim, while popular with the comic crowd (I am seeing it for a second time tomorrow...gotta love early screenings ..it is a fantastic movie) is not a main draw for the regular folks. I agree with Chuck's assessment of the upcoming weekend, though I would put expendables out there a bit higher, since it seems to be generating some buzz fromt he average movie goer.

Shannow said:

pilgrim, while popular with the comic crowd (I am seeing it for a second time tomorrow...gotta love early screenings ..it is a fantastic movie) is not a main draw for the regular folks. I agree with Chuck's assessment of the upcoming weekend, though I would put expendables out there a bit higher, since it seems to be generating some buzz fromt he average movie goer.

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$25m is a huge opening for an R-rated movie with absolutely zero female characters.

This is true. I had completely forgotten about the r rating. Still, I think I am going to say around 30m for its opening.

I'm just struggling to not be pissed off that there's no Jason movie coming out this weekend.

After the debacle that was the lastone , I am okay with that.

The Lovely Boner said:

Any US city street, if you asked 100 random people who Edgar Wright is, I bet my life you wouldn't get more than 5 answers.

I know what the "comic book audience" is. I just don't think outside of masked superheroes it has much of an impact on movie box office. Where was the big bump for "The Losers" based on its comic background? I would bet that RED would make nearly the same amount of money with the DC logo or without.

Are you sure you think Expendables will beat EPL, or do you just want it? I'm no Julia Roberts fan, but there hasn't been an adult romantic comedy in a while. Also, Eat Pray Love is based on a book that I guarantee you more people have read than every volume of Scott Pilgrim combined.

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RE: Edgar Wright. That's fine. That's a better "no one" as you proclaimed before. I still think 5 out of 100 is still being under generous, though.
RE: Scott Pilgrim. Comparing with The Losers is bunk because Pilgrim is not only a bigger seller (Losers was cancelled), but also much more well known. Keep in mind, too, that their advertising has been very strong, especially among video gamers due to the excitement for the upcoming game. Unlike, say, Kick-Ass though, it's much PG-13, which means a lot more sales especially from the High School crowd who, say, can't get into Expendables.
RE: Eat Pray Love/Expendables. I hope that Sly's movie destroys Roberts', but as I said, they're two very different audiences. EPL will be something a group of women will all go see together. Ditto for Expendables, only for groups of guys. Plus, Sex in the City 2 came out not too long ago, but I think that was the last major "chick flick" out in the last while.

I think David Eddelstien from Sunday Morning (CBS) said it best, -If you are not Canadian and a Comics Fan, you will not know who Scott Pilgrim is.

Until this movie I had no idea who Scott Pilgrim was. Then I saw the trailers and said, "Hey that looks cool!" THEN I found out it was a comic.

Dave said:

Until this movie I had no idea who Scott Pilgrim was. Then I saw the trailers and said, "Hey that looks cool!" THEN I found out it was a comic.

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Which is why I think it's going to top the weekend--lots of ads, and lots of flashy cool stuff. It may drop by next weekend, but I think it'll have the opening.

I am seeing it for a second time tomorrow night! wooooooo!

I'm so damn eager for it this Friday...

escushion said:

I'm so damn eager for it this Friday...

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I can't wait for Eat Pray Love too.

ThatNickGuy said:

Dude, have you ever BEEN to a comic book store in the last few years? Pilgrim, most especially in Canada, is a huge hit and is constantly suggested reading among clerks. I didn't say "superhero" audience, I said "comic book" audience; the people who walk into a comic book store on a semi-regular basis. The last volume of Scott Pilgrim sold out of its first run and I guarantee the vast majority of people who read it are seeing it opening weekend. Don't try arguing with me on this shit. You're right on the rest, though.

"No one" in North America? Right. That's over-embellishing. Try "no one who pays attentions to directors" or "no one who looks at the credits" or "no one who reads IMDB".

I still think Expendables is going to be second place, though. To hell with Julia Roberts.

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Edgar Wright's mainstream contributions (the ones on IMDB that I recognize) have been Grindhouse and Shaun of the Dead, two movies that are cult favorites at best (SotD had a 30 million worldwide gross according to boxofficemojo.com). This is not mainstream success, regardless of how big the cult following SotD and Grindhouse is. I watch a lot of movies, I watch the opening and closing credits, but I don't camp myself on IMDB because I couldn't care less what film snobs think. I had to look this guy up to find out who he is. TLB has you on this point. I'm most looking forward to Scott Pilgrim. The "comic crowd" is a minority of the movie goers out there. Studios aren't basing any predictions of success off of that slice of the pie.

The Expendables looks like an '80s action flick, which I'm assuming is the goal of the filmmakers. They are likely banking on the nostalgia factor to have a good opening weekend or two. The thing is, '80s action flicks look dated, and while I enjoy a good romp through Commando, Terminator, Rambo, Die Hard, etc, those movies would have a hard time finding success among the audience that they established...isn't that a little ironic?

As I said above, I like '80s action movies, but I have little desire to see The Expendables. I'd rather spend that money to see Inception again.

what the FUCK

IMDB is not filled with film snobs.

KCWM;425743][QUOTE=ThatNickGuy said:

Dude, have you ever BEEN to a comic book store in the last few years? Pilgrim, most especially in Canada, is a huge hit and is constantly suggested reading among clerks. I didn't say "superhero" audience, I said "comic book" audience; the people who walk into a comic book store on a semi-regular basis. The last volume of Scott Pilgrim sold out of its first run and I guarantee the vast majority of people who read it are seeing it opening weekend. Don't try arguing with me on this shit. You're right on the rest, though.

"No one" in North America? Right. That's over-embellishing. Try "no one who pays attentions to directors" or "no one who looks at the credits" or "no one who reads IMDB".

I still think Expendables is going to be second place, though. To hell with Julia Roberts.

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Edgar Write's mainstream contributions (the ones on IMDB that I recognize) have been Grindhouse and Shaun of the Dead, two movies that are cult favorites at best (SotD had a 30 million worldwide gross according to boxofficemojo.com). This is not mainstream success, regardless of how big the cult following SotD and Grindhouse is. I watch a lot of movies, I watch the opening and closing credits, but I don't camp myself on IMDB because I couldn't care less what film snobs think. I had to look this guy up to find out who he is. TLB has you on this point. I'm most looking forward to Scott Pilgrim. The "comic crowd" is a minority of the movie goers out there. Studios aren't basing any predictions of success off of that slice of the pie.

The Expendables looks like an '80s action flick, which I'm assuming is the goal of the filmmakers. They are likely banking on the nostalgia factor to have a good opening weekend or two. The thing is, '80s action flicks look dated, and while I enjoy a good romp through Commando, Terminator, Rambo, Die Hard, etc, those movies would have a hard time finding success among the audience that they established...isn't that a little ironic?

As I said above, I like '80s action movies, but I have little desire to see The Expendables. I'd rather spend that money to see Inception again.[/QUOTE]

1) Edgar Wright was not heavily involved in Grindhouse. He directed one of the trailers that appeared in between the two parts.

2) Somehow you missed Hot Fuzz, which grossed $80 million worldwide, by far making it his most successful film to date.
Now, still you are correct that this doesn't compare to the kind of money Stallone and co have each brought in with their movies in the past, but you are still avoiding and misrepresenting the facts to suit your point.

Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz may be only cult successes financially, but they are both critical successs. Each has 8/10 at IMDB and 91% at Rotten Tomatoes, and Hot Fuzz more than doubled the intake of Shaun of the Dead. Most people may not know him by name, but the "From the director of Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz" before the trailers for Scott Pilgrim is not exactly going to waste.

Hot Fuzz also opened number 6 in the box office its first weekend. Which is not overly impressive, but considering it was only his second movie released worldwide, it does bare a little weight, I think.

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The Lovely Boner said:

what the FUCK

IMDB is not filled with film snobs.

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True. It is filled mainly with idiots, actually. The IMDB messageboards are not unlike youtube comments most of the time.

ThatNickGuy said:

Dude, have you ever BEEN to a comic book store in the last few years? Pilgrim, most especially in Canada, is a huge hit and is constantly suggested reading among clerks. I didn't say "superhero" audience, I said "comic book" audience; the people who walk into a comic book store on a semi-regular basis. The last volume of Scott Pilgrim sold out of its first run and I guarantee the vast majority of people who read it are seeing it opening weekend. Don't try arguing with me on this shit. You're right on the rest, though.

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Yes, the last volume sold out it's first run of 100,000 copies, making it one of the most successful graphic novels of all time. But that also means that more people in the last hour have seen a TV ad for the Scott Pilgrim movie because they didn't bother to change the channel than have read the book. It's not the comic book audience that will see this movie, it's the MTV audience.

It will do well, if just for the fact that there isnt anything really going hard against it in the age demographic. I hope it does extremely well, but I will not be delusional about it because the comic is popular and I read comics.......


But regardless, I really do hope it slams it out of the park. It most likely wont but I am pretty confident it will do well though, based on whats out there now going against it, and where it is targeted. That, and it is a great movie (though really, after seeing it, I am curious to see what an average person watching it will think without having any idea who or what SP is.)

Shannow said:

It will do well, if just for the fact that there isnt anything really going hard against it in the age demographic. I hope it does extremely well, but I will not be delusional about it because the comic is popular and I read comics.......


But regardless, I really do hope it slams it out of the park. It most likely wont but I am pretty confident it will do well though, based on whats out there now going against it, and where it is targeted. That, and it is a great movie (though really, after seeing it, I am curious to see what an average person watching it will think without having any idea who or what SP is.)

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I think Charlie's predictions won't be too far off the mark.

Agreed.

whoever gave me the negative rep made me giggle a little bit.

You should have that passive aggressive bullshit checked out. The worst shrink would have a field day with it.

Just, for the record, though I disagreed with your post, it wasn't me.
Rep doesn't usually even occur to me. I think I've only ever given rep to Calleja, to try to keep him at 42.

checkeredhat said:

Just, for the record, though I disagreed with your post, it wasn't me.
Rep doesn't usually even occur to me. I think I've only ever given rep to Calleja, to try to keep him at 42.

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I'm all for disagreement. It's what makes discussion forums interesting. I'm just a single guy on the internet with an opinion no more valid than the next guy's. I happened to agree with TLB that most people have no idea who Edgar Wright is. I might not have properly made my point in the 45 minutes it took me to make that post in between things at work, but regardless of whether or not the trailers say "brought you to by the director of X and Y", if people haven't seen X and Y movies, they aren't going to give two shits about who the director is until they see the movie they are watching. But, apparently, that steps on the toes of some internet hosejob that thinks his loving opinion of the director means that any dissenting opinion must mean the person doesn't know what they are talking about. If he wants to jack himself off like that, great...kudos. Heck, maybe it's because I really couldn't care less who directs movies as long as the movies are entertaining. I'm too tired to really think coherently.

There was a good reason I lurked for quite a while.

I care about who directs movies because certain directors always make entertaining and interesting films (Tarantino) and some directors always make pieces of shit (Paul WS Anderson)

Whoops! I was way the fuck off! Scott Pilgrim made $5m to the Expendables' $15m. So just pretend I typoed those movies and switch them!

I guess now we know who wins in Scott Pilgrim vs Sylvester Stallone, heh.

And we also know why no one makes original movies.

Yeah after yesterday's performance at the box office, I think I have to eat my hat.

Give the movies a bit of time. I don't think word of mouth will be kind to The Expendables.

sixpackshaker said:

Give the movies a bit of time. I don't think word of mouth will be kind to The Expendables.

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Welcome to America, where the opening box office weekend is the only thing that matters 99% of the time.

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The Lovely Boner;427609][QUOTE=sixpackshaker said:

Give the movies a bit of time. I don't think word of mouth will be kind to The Expendables.

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Welcome to Hollywood, where the opening box office weekend is the only thing that matters 99% of the time.[/QUOTE]

/

From Box office mojo

1 The Expendables $35,030,000
2 Eat Pray Love $23,700,000
3 The Other Guys $18,000,000
4 Inception $11,370,000
5 Scott Pilgrim vs. the World $10,525,000

I didn't expect people still loved Julia Roberts that much, based on her recent movie grosses and the declining box office of past superstars (like Tom Cruise).

But box office mojo doesnt know. i mean, peple were lined up to buy the newest scott pilgrim comic!

It might be Julia Roberts, and might be that the book it's based on sold a hojillion copies.

Best-selling books whose film adaptations didn't make as much money: Under The Tuscan Sun (the closest thematic match I can think of) made only $43.6 million in the US and had no giant star power, while The Lovely Bones made only $44 million with the clout of Peter Jackson.

klew said:

From Box office mojo

1 The Expendables $35,030,000
2 Eat Pray Love $23,700,000
3 The Other Guys $18,000,000
4 Inception $11,370,000
5 Scott Pilgrim vs. the World $10,525,000

I didn't expect people still loved Julia Roberts that much, based on her recent movie grosses and the declining box office of past superstars (like Tom Cruise).

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Yeah, I realized the list I had been looking at was not the correct one. I only yesterday found a list that placed SP in 4th, not 8th. Still not as strong as I was hoping though.

I wonder if advertising that a movie is based on "the best-selling/critically acclaimed comic book" is burning people out. People at work have replied "Another one of those?" when I tell them what movies I've recently seen or plan to see.

I'd say it's more a case of proven actors over unknown actors. Stallone has decades of good will built up with movie audiences, Roberts is one of the few woman who can headline a film all by herself. Michael Cera is talented but, when faced with a decision most movie goers know him from supporting roles only.

Saw both Pilgrim and Expendables today. Expendables wasn't very good, to be honest. The only reason I didn't walk out is because I paid money for it.

Pilgrim was awesome, though. I really hope that word of mouth gives it a better go next weekend.

klew said:

I didn't expect people still loved Julia Roberts that much

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They love OPRAH that much.

Fortunately we love 'splosions more.

the dicks win.
i didn't know who scott pilgrim is but i've always known who stallone is. that is why it did better. a recognizable name/face puts asses in the seats. I have yet to see either.

i looked up scott and the whole 7 evil exes thing smacked of kill bill which smacks of something else i can't think of right now. maybe it's just me.

Disconnected said:

i looked up scott and the whole 7 evil exes thing smacked of kill bill which smacks of something else i can't think of right now. maybe it's just me.

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Game of Death? It's part of the reason The Bride wears the yellow jumpsuit during the fight in Japan: Bruce Lee wore a similar suit in Game of Death.