When human injection of carbon into the atmosphere reaches 1 trillion tons, dangerous climate change with average global warming of more than 2 Celsius degrees will likely occur, a new analysis finds.
And humans are hurrying toward that 1 trillion mark. So far, We’ve added about 520 billion tons of carbon to the atmosphere. With the addition of an estimated 9 billion tons of carbon a year — a number that’s been growing since 1850 — dangerous warming is likely to occur within half a century.
That’s the message from a new paper in the journal Nature, which — along with half a dozen other papers in the issue — provides a simpler way of looking at the climate change problem. What matters is the total amount of carbon that we release into the atmosphere, and focusing on that number as a budget can shape the way policymakers look at the problem, argues Myles Allen, lead author of one of the papers and a climatologist at the University of Oxford.
“The important thing about the cumulative budget is that a ton of carbon is a ton of carbon. If we release it now, it’s a ton we can’t release in 40 years’ time. Every ton we put out is using up a ton of that atmospheric capacity,” Allen told Wired.com. “Reducing emissions steadily over 50 years is much cheaper and easier and less traumatic than allowing them to rise for 15 years and then reducing them violently for 35 years.”
Previous climate change efforts have tried to find the correct “stabilization level” for which to aim. Policymakers would try to craft scenarios showing that the world’s people should aim to peg the concentration of carbon dioxide at 350 or 450 or 550 parts per million. Beyond the scientific complexity of finding what that number should be — which Myles called “a nightmare” — the esoteric nature of those numbers made the climate problem difficult to communicate to populations across the world.
Allen hopes his team’s new analysis, along with a similar paper lead-authored by Malte Meinshausen of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, will let people look at the problem square on.
The numbers presented in their research are probabilistic. They look at different levels of carbon and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and try to assign the likelihood that a certain emissions level would equate to a temperature change across the Earth. The two papers use different periods of analysis and base cases, but they are broadly consistent in their findings that it’s the total amount of carbon added to the atmosphere that will determine the peak warming of the globe.
Where Allen’s team found that adding 480 billion tons of carbon from here on out would push the risk of 2 degrees of warming to over 50 percent, Meinshausen’s team found even more alarming results. The German team estimates that 310 billion tons is all that would be needed. Without policy changes, that means humans would hit dangerous warming levels in 20 years (Meinshausen) to 40 years (Allen) .
“The bottom line? Dangerous change, even loosely defined, is going to be hard to avoid,” write Gavin Schmidt of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Science and David Archer, a geoscientist at the University of Chicago, in an accompanying commentary in Nature. “Unless emissions begin to decline very soon, severe disruption to the climate system will entail expensive adaptation measures and may eventually require cleaning up the mess by actively removing CO2 from the atmosphere.”
Forcing emissions to decline will require changing the way the world uses fossil fuels. In Allen’s view, humans can pull a trillion tons of carbon-rich fossil fuels out of the ground and burn them with risks that have been deemed acceptable by most people. But it’s the second trillion tons of fossil fuels, largely in the form of coal and oil shale, that will determine how recklessly humans play with the climate system.
“From all the incredible arcane arguments that go on, in the end, it’s really a very simple question: what are we going to do with the second trillion tons?” Allen asked.
Fossil-fuel–reserve estimates vary. While it’s clear that there is a lot of coal and oil shale on Earth, there is intense debate over how much of that fossil fuel will be economical to mine. Allen’s group used the World Energy Council’s estimates, which show nearly 6 trillion tons of fossil fuels still left to be mined. Other scientists believe that fossil fuel reserves could be much lower.
I think if we work hard enough, we can beat that "half a century" mark! Go team! GO!!And humans are hurrying toward that 1 trillion mark. So far, We’ve added about 520 billion tons of carbon to the atmosphere. With the addition of an estimated 9 billion tons of carbon a year — a number that’s been growing since 1850 — dangerous warming is likely to occur within half a century.
No flaming from me mate.ThatNickGuy said:*sighs* I'm going to get flamed for this, but I wish people (not just here, but worldwide) would take this issue more seriously. We're screwing over our entire planet, which means it may very well become unsustainable for us to live. Basically, it'll turn into another Mars.
I don't understand why, when the technology is there now, that we can't have a lot of buildings and houses retrofitted with wind and solar. Heck, I was at a green living exhibition in Toronto recently and they showed some really neat wind-powered inventions, some small enough to have several on some buildings and at least one on the average house. I mean, if every building had one, would that not cut down on our need for fossilized fuel? Why aren't countries like China, who are building new coal plants nearly every day, jumping on this?
This is one of those things where I pull out my hair and scream "You idiots!" The world needs to change its ways of living and sadly, I don't think it's going to happen.
Pfft. Silly man.ThatNickGuy said:*sighs* I'm going to get flamed for this, but I wish people (not just here, but worldwide) would take this issue more seriously. We're screwing over our entire planet, which means it may very well become unsustainable for us to live. Basically, it'll turn into another Mars.
I don't understand why, when the technology is there now, that we can't have a lot of buildings and houses retrofitted with wind and solar. Heck, I was at a green living exhibition in Toronto recently and they showed some really neat wind-powered inventions, some small enough to have several on some buildings and at least one on the average house. I mean, if every building had one, would that not cut down on our need for fossilized fuel? Why aren't countries like China, who are building new coal plants nearly every day, jumping on this?
This is one of those things where I pull out my hair and scream "You idiots!" The world needs to change its ways of living and sadly, I don't think it's going to happen.
ThatNickGuy said:This is one of those things where I pull out my hair and scream "You idiots!" The world needs to change its ways of living and sadly, I don't think it's going to happen.
There's plenty of profit, you think they're going to give away those wind powered machines/generators? :bush:JCM said:Sadly, profit is more important to most that clean living.
Well, wind would be sustainable... unless the Crystal of Wind loses it's power....ThatNickGuy said:Yeah, there's still the cost of buying and installing them, plus workers to install and maintain them. It just wouldn't be the same profits as buying gas at the pumps, which I don't see as a bad thing. It's about moving away from unsustainable sources like oil and coal.
I concur. I think that's the first time I've agreed w/ you JCM. :falldown:JCM said:Whether we agree on global warming or not, we are dirtying and polluting the planet which we will give to our kids to live in.
Don't worry, those crystals will be restored.Shegokigo said:Well, wind would be sustainable... unless the Crystal of Wind loses it's power....ThatNickGuy said:Yeah, there's still the cost of buying and installing them, plus workers to install and maintain them. It just wouldn't be the same profits as buying gas at the pumps, which I don't see as a bad thing. It's about moving away from unsustainable sources like oil and coal.
What hair?ThatNickGuy said:*sighs* I'm going to get flamed for this, but I wish people (not just here, but worldwide) would take this issue more seriously. We're screwing over our entire planet, which means it may very well become unsustainable for us to live. Basically, it'll turn into another Mars.
I don't understand why, when the technology is there now, that we can't have a lot of buildings and houses retrofitted with wind and solar. Heck, I was at a green living exhibition in Toronto recently and they showed some really neat wind-powered inventions, some small enough to have several on some buildings and at least one on the average house. I mean, if every building had one, would that not cut down on our need for fossilized fuel? Why aren't countries like China, who are building new coal plants nearly every day, jumping on this?
This is one of those things where I pull out my hair and scream "You idiots!" The world needs to change its ways of living and sadly, I don't think it's going to happen.
sadly mate... I can sum it up with one word.ThatNickGuy said:*sighs* I'm going to get flamed for this, but I wish people (not just here, but worldwide) would take this issue more seriously. We're screwing over our entire planet, which means it may very well become unsustainable for us to live. Basically, it'll turn into another Mars.
I don't understand why, when the technology is there now, that we can't have a lot of buildings and houses retrofitted with wind and solar. Heck, I was at a green living exhibition in Toronto recently and they showed some really neat wind-powered inventions, some small enough to have several on some buildings and at least one on the average house. I mean, if every building had one, would that not cut down on our need for fossilized fuel? Why aren't countries like China, who are building new coal plants nearly every day, jumping on this?
This is one of those things where I pull out my hair and scream "You idiots!" The world needs to change its ways of living and sadly, I don't think it's going to happen.
We have that already, it's called Nuclear fission. But the same people who rail against carbon are historically the same segment who railed against nuclear power. Wind and solar are not quite yet ready for prime time... nuclear has been ready for decades.ElJuski said:I mostly agree with you, Gas...but don't you think that installing sustainable energy would still be a good idea? I still try to be more environmentally sound even though I don't buy into a chunk of the man-made global warming stuff.
Yea. The problem is that people still fear nuclear due to couple of major disaster and the word nuclear. General public are stupid and still think that every nuclear plant = Chernobyl.GasBandit said:We have that already, it's called Nuclear fission. But the same people who rail against carbon are historically the same segment who railed against nuclear power. Wind and solar are not quite yet ready for prime time... nuclear has been ready for decades.ElJuski said:I mostly agree with you, Gas...but don't you think that installing sustainable energy would still be a good idea? I still try to be more environmentally sound even though I don't buy into a chunk of the man-made global warming stuff.
Sorry Gas, but I'm going to disagree with you. The weather has been wonkier and wonkier every year and it ain't just natural. Plus, you've got animals species being wiped out left right and centre in the name of profit and development.GasBandit said:Good god, more carbon witch huntery. There's plenty of REAL pollution to worry about, folks. Sulphur. Mercury. Lead.
You've got an article that says the antarctic ice shelf is collapsing, another guy's got one that says it is growing. But no matter which it does, a zealot from the church of global warming will tell you it is evidence that global warming is occurring AND it is entirely man made.
It's all bullshit, it's all biased, it's all political, it's all power and profit driven, and the waters are so churned by all of the above that it's actually impossible for us to make a scientific deduction about what is actually going on. And right at the center of it all is the arrogant hubris that climatological, biological, seismic, cosmic, volcanic and umpteen other factors are all disregarded because it's ALL OUR FAULT. I swear, "green" is the new "Catholic."
Jumping jeezus on a pogo stick.
That's a lot of bullshit right there. The weather has always been wonky, we just didn't have the tech to report and record it. Animals have been going extinct at thousands per day for millenia. Nature is not stagnant. Nature is ever changing, ever dying, ever renewing.ThatNickGuy said:Sorry Gas, but I'm going to disagree with you. The weather has been wonkier and wonkier every year and it ain't just natural. Plus, you've got animals species being wiped out left right and centre in the name of profit and development.GasBandit said:Good god, more carbon witch huntery. There's plenty of REAL pollution to worry about, folks. Sulphur. Mercury. Lead.
You've got an article that says the antarctic ice shelf is collapsing, another guy's got one that says it is growing. But no matter which it does, a zealot from the church of global warming will tell you it is evidence that global warming is occurring AND it is entirely man made.
It's all bullshit, it's all biased, it's all political, it's all power and profit driven, and the waters are so churned by all of the above that it's actually impossible for us to make a scientific deduction about what is actually going on. And right at the center of it all is the arrogant hubris that climatological, biological, seismic, cosmic, volcanic and umpteen other factors are all disregarded because it's ALL OUR FAULT. I swear, "green" is the new "Catholic."
Jumping jeezus on a pogo stick.
Solar helps, but it's not where we can power ourselves entirely on it yet. Wind is even further behind. The fact of the matter is Oil is the lifeblood of western civilization. We don't just burn it for energy, we make everything out of it. Everything. Plastic. Clothes. FOOD.Again, it's about "how we live our life". What would be so wrong with changing our dependency on fossil fuels? Honestly, I don't know anything about nuclear fission, but it burns some kind of resource, right? Hey, guess what? We've got a big ball of fire up there in the sky that we can get power from for another few billion years. And there's always wind blowing, too. That's stuff that we don't need to burn up using, have any worries about trying to find places "safe" to store it while the radiation dies down in a few hundred years and will always be there, without having to dig up the earth or create more pollution.
I'm not talking about just global warming or the environment. I'm talking about the way that we live and the waste that we produce on a daily basis, either in refuge we throw away or crap we pull out of the ground and burn back into the atmosphere. What would be so wrong with using and re-using things that are openly and readily available to us that would never dwindle away?
*ques Nickguy's Benny Hill theme song*ThatNickGuy said:We don't NEED all of that. Maybe we should just, you know, cut back on how much energy and electricity. Lower our dependency on it. You know, that whole "the way we live right now" kind of thing? And it's sad if the lifeblood of our civilization is oil, especially since we're draining the supply of it further and fighting over it more and more (see also, Iraq). Speaking as a Canadian, I've see a lot on the tar sands, which are just a total mess and for what? More oil. Yippee.
With that said? I don't much appreciate feeling attacked and being called brainwashed. I politely disagreed with you and you're just attacking and insulting.
Enjoy the thread, folks.
See, now that's a response. Your previous one? Not so much. :slywink:ThatNickGuy said:I'll come back to respond that:
It's not an argument. Gas basically shat all over something that I strongly believe in to continue his political soapbox. I don't appreciate being called brainwashed when I honestly and truly think (of my own volition, thank you very smurfing much) that the world needs to move away from its dependency on burnable products and maybe move to a simpler way of life.
To reiterate, what Gas responded with is not an argument, it's just belittling.
If you want to cut back go ahead, but I like my gas guzzling car, my computer(which actually has a High Efficiency Green power supply ), my tv, I like to leave the lights on when i leave the room, I like air conditioning... I like the shit that uses all the natural gas and I am not going to change for a bunch of liberal hippies who don't understand the natural cooling and heating cycles of the Earth... Oh by the way folks... The hole in the ozone is shrinking So yeah all these supposedly irreversible effects we have on the planet are in fact reversible. I saw a study about trees in the rain forest multiplying more than ever seen before, why? Because we have more carbon dioxide in the air and they are sucking it, the planet adapts and changes.ThatNickGuy said:We don't NEED all of that. Maybe we should just, you know, cut back on how much energy and electricity. Lower our dependency on it. You know, that whole "the way we live right now" kind of thing? And it's sad if the lifeblood of our civilization is oil, especially since we're draining the supply of it further and fighting over it more and more (see also, Iraq). Speaking as a Canadian, I've see a lot on the tar sands, which are just a total mess and for what? More oil. Yippee.
With that said? I don't much appreciate feeling attacked and being called brainwashed. I politely disagreed with you and you're just attacking and insulting.
Enjoy the thread, folks.
I like your optimism Hobo, and I hope you're right.HoboNinja said:So yeah all these supposedly irreversible effects we have on the planet are in fact reversible.
You think THAT was belittling? You think THAT WAS BELITTLING? You've got awful thin skin for an anusfaced maggot who uses his RL picture for his avatar. You want belittling? You got it.ThatNickGuy said:I'll come back to respond that:
It's not an argument. Gas basically shat all over something that I strongly believe in to continue his political soapbox. I don't appreciate being called brainwashed when I honestly and truly think (of my own volition, thank you very fucking much) that the world needs to move away from its dependency on burnable products and maybe move to a simpler way of life.
To reiterate, what Gas responded with is not an argument, it's just belittling.
Wrong. We need more than we already have. Constant rolling brownouts in the western US, for example. China is hungry for every drop of oil our hybrid owners think they're leaving in the ground. Forget saving the world from fossil fuels, guy. Whatever you're not buying, somebody else is, and it's THEIR economy that ends up growing for it while you throttle yours in the name of an imaginary crisis designed to make political hay.ThatNickGuy said:We don't NEED all of that. Maybe we should just, you know, cut back on how much energy and electricity.
Great. Googlily. Moogily. You didn't just make the "no blood for oil" argument did you? [Belittling alert] Of all the asinine... that's like saying "it's sad if the lifeblood of our species is oxygen." It isn't sad, it isn't happy, it IS. Oh, and btw, peak oil is a myth.Lower our dependency on it. You know, that whole "the way we live right now" kind of thing? And it's sad if the lifeblood of our civilization is oil, especially since we're draining the supply of it further and fighting over it more and more (see also, Iraq).
(lightbulb goes off) Well, all this delusional pap suddenly has an explanation.Speaking as a Canadian,
GTFO my internets, nancy. Until next time, Mr. T sheds a single tear for your unappreciation of my belittling.With that said? I don't much appreciate feeling attacked and being called brainwashed. I politely disagreed with you and you're just attacking and insulting.
(lightbulb goes off) Well, all this delusional pap suddenly has an explanation.GasBandit said:You think THAT was belittling? You think THAT WAS BELITTLING? You've got awful thin skin for an anusfaced maggot who uses his RL picture for his avatar. You want belittling? You got it.ThatNickGuy said:I'll come back to respond that:
It's not an argument. Gas basically shat all over something that I strongly believe in to continue his political soapbox. I don't appreciate being called brainwashed when I honestly and truly think (of my own volition, thank you very fucking much) that the world needs to move away from its dependency on burnable products and maybe move to a simpler way of life.
To reiterate, what Gas responded with is not an argument, it's just belittling.
Wrong. We need more than we already have. Constant rolling brownouts in the western US, for example. China is hungry for every drop of oil our hybrid owners think they're leaving in the ground. Forget saving the world from fossil fuels, guy. Whatever you're not buying, somebody else is, and it's THEIR economy that ends up growing for it while you throttle yours in the name of an imaginary crisis designed to make political hay.ThatNickGuy said:We don't NEED all of that. Maybe we should just, you know, cut back on how much energy and electricity.
Great. Googlily. Moogily. You didn't just make the "no blood for oil" argument did you? [Belittling alert] Of all the asinine... that's like saying "it's sad if the lifeblood of our species is oxygen." It isn't sad, it isn't happy, it IS. Oh, and btw, peak oil is a myth.Lower our dependency on it. You know, that whole "the way we live right now" kind of thing? And it's sad if the lifeblood of our civilization is oil, especially since we're draining the supply of it further and fighting over it more and more (see also, Iraq).
[quote:1yeibxxz]Speaking as a Canadian,
GTFO my internets, nancy. Until next time, Mr. T sheds a single tear for your unappreciation of my belittling.With that said? I don't much appreciate feeling attacked and being called brainwashed. I politely disagreed with you and you're just attacking and insulting.