What To Watch Fore(cast) - U.S. Weekly Weather Forecasts

[Ross]

In an attempt to garner a wider audience, I have decided to post my weekly forecasts for the U.S. in this thread. Feel free to read and reply, or to completely ignore this thread. There is a Highlights section for whoever wants a quick glance at the "significant" weather of the week, which takes less than a minute to read (if you can pay attention for even that long). Below that is a Discussion section, which goes into more detail and includes some more technical terminology.

Forecasts will be written every Sunday, sometimes with intermittent updates throughout the week, especially during periods of severe weather or significant forecast changes. My main site for the updates is here: http://www.albany.edu/~me381243/

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What To Watch Fore(cast) - Mar. 28 - Apr. 3

Highlights:

Soggy start on the East Coast - Heavy rain will affect nearly the entire eastern third of the nation through Wednesday.

Boomers rumble in the Southeast - Slight chance for severe weather in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic states today and Monday.

Easter surprise for the Plains - Models have consistently indicated a storm with the potential for widespread severe storms in the Great Plains and Southeast on Easter weekend.

Extreme heat - The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are expected to get well above normal temperatures during the second half of the week.

Pacific Northwest can't catch a break - Wave after wave of low pressure systems will continue soaking the West Coast this week, with widespread rain totals in the 4-8" range.

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Discussion:

A Soaker System will be affecting the eastern half of the nation to start the week, with QPF totals of 1-2"+ expected over parts of the Midwest, Mid Atlantic, Northeast and Florida now through Tuesday. The good news is the rain/snow line has moved considerably north from where it was last week, which means just about everyone will be seeing rain from this storm, with the exception of some of the higher elevations in New England and parts of Northern Maine, who can expect some snow mixing in occasionally as the storm system moves off the East Coast.

Enough instability has accumulated in the Southeast for a good round of severe thunderstorm activity today as the low pressure system work its way towards the coast. Outbreak potential remains limited, and I am not expecting anything to really exceed the level of severe weather we have been seeing the last couple of days in the middle of the country.

In its place, a strong ridge of high pressure will build into the middle of the country in the first half of the week, providing temperatures as high as 15-25 degrees above normal across the Midwest, Mid Atlantic and Northeast during the second half of the week.

Towards the end of the week, a classic early Spring severe outbreak event is starting to unfold in the models up and down the Great Plains and into the Southeast. A pocket of upper-level energy will cut-off just off the coast of California, slide east along the US/Mexico border, and prime the atmosphere for severe weather during the weekend.

However, there is one significant ingredient that is missing from this potential outbreak, and that is an upper-level subtropical jet. Without the jet, upper-level thermal instability will be limited in the Great Plains, and the most explosive convection with this system is isolated to Central and Southern Texas at this point in time. This Easter weekend system will have to be closely watched for any significant changes as time goes on.

 

[Chibibar]

what? no snow in Texas??
We can use another 10 inches.

 

[Kitty Sinatra]

You can have ours . . . oh wait. It melted a month ago. You ain't getting our lush green grass.

 

[Ross]

Texas seasonal snowfall - Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport

17.1"

That is 14.6" above average.

Here's some more information on the TX snow at DFW, back from February:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
538 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2010

...GREATEST ALL-TIME CALENDAR DAY SNOW ON RECORD SET AT DALLAS FORT
WORTH...

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY 11TH SET AT DALLAS
FORT WORTH...

...GREATEST ALL-TIME 24-HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL SET AT DALLAS FORT
WORTH...

...RECORD 24-HOUR SNOW FOR FEBRUARY SET AT DALLAS FORT WORTH...

DALLAS FORT WORTH AIRPORT RECORDED 11.2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR FEBRUARY
11...2010. THIS BREAKS THE GREATEST CALENDAR DAY SNOW ON RECORD.
THE OLD RECORD WAS 7.8 INCHES SET ON JANUARY 15...1964 AND JANUARY
14...1917.

OBVIOUSLY....THIS SHATTERS THE RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL FOR
FEBRUARY 11TH...OF 1.4 INCHES WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1988.

THE GREATEST ALL-TIME 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD WAS ALSO BROKEN FROM 4
AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM FRIDAY. THE NEW RECORD IS 12.5 INCHES. THE OLD
RECORD WAS 12.1 INCHES SET JANUARY 15 THROUGH JANUARY 16...1964.

THIS ALSO BREAKS THE RECORD 24-HOUR SNOWFALL FOR FEBRUARY WHICH WAS
7.5 INCHES...SET ON FEBRUARY 17...1978 AND FEBRUARY 25...1924



...Global warming.

 

[Wasabi Poptart]

Hooray for a chance of rain mid-week here in SoCal! Though I am enjoying the warm, almost summer-like weather we had yesterday and will have again today.

 

[Espy]

Can you please cut the heat back for MN? I'm not ready for it to be March and almost 70 degrees. I like it to be more gradual. I don't need another scorching summer. Thanks.

PS: I would also like a Pony.

 

[Ross]

What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 4-10

Highlights:

Happy Easter for Easterners - Mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures will give the eastern third of the nation ideal conditions to celebrate Easter Sunday.

Severe weather in the mid-country - The Central Plains and Western Midwest will see several rounds of severe weather through the first half of the week.

Mid-Atlantic and Northeast severe weather possible - The East Coast could see its first round of widespread severe weather this year Thursday and Friday as far north as Southern New England.

Heat subsides in the East - Temperatures will be returning to near-normal values in the eastern half of the country during the second half of the week.

A pleasant weekend for most - A lull in the weather over the weekend will bring mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures to a large portion of the country, especially in areas east of the Rockies.

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Discussion:

A stationary front draped over the middle of the country will be host to a series of weak disturbances this week before the storm system currently affecting the Pacific Northwest pushes it off to the north and east. Until then, areas immediately south of the stationary front could see several days of severe weather, particularly in the Central Plains and Western Midwest. The above-average temperatures coupled with a good moisture feed from the Gulf of Mexico and the forcing from the stationary boundary will be enough to trigger the severe weather.

A strong low pressure system that is currently making its way into the Pacific Northwest will move into the center of the country Wednesday, which will progress eastward, bringing the chance for severe weather with it. The Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast are at risk Thursday and Friday as the storm system makes its way to the East Coast.

Behind this storm, temperatures will return to seasonal levels through most of the country, especially in areas east of the Rocky Mountains. With the exception of a weak Canadian disturbance and a low pressure system moving over the West Coast, the weather will be fairly quiet, which will give most Americans a pleasant Spring weekend to catch up on their outdoor activities.

 

[Ross]

What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 11-17

Late update... forgot to do it amongst all of the chores I was doing over the weekend. Spring cleaning is fun!

Highlights:

Northern Plains sees some action - Severe weather could break out in the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday as a low pressure system initiates storms unusually far north for this early in the season.

All quiet on the western front - A period of calmer weather is on the way for most of the West as a lack of strong Pacific storms provides relief from all of the rain.

Dry line of fun - The semi-permanent dry line in the Western Plains will help initiate convection and severe storms during the second half of the week.

Winter storm possible in the Northeast - A late burst of cold air could bring significant snowfall to parts of the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

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Discussion:

An amplified ridge set up over the eastern half of the US will force a low pressure system to move unusually far north over the Western Plains, which will provide some severe weather to the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday, mostly in the form of hail. After this system moves out of the West, there will be an extended period of drier weather in the Southwest, with scattered showers and storms affecting the Pacific Northwest throughout the week. The good news for the Pacific Northwest is that most of the rain will be in the interior, and no widespread significant rainfall totals are expected.

A semi-permanent dry line over the Western Plains will help trigger storms and severe weather through the second half of the week in the Central and Southern Plains. Most of these storms will be pop-up storms initiated by daytime heating.

The storm that will create the severe weather in the Northern Plains Monday and Tuesday will work its way over the ridge and dive into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic over the weekend. A surge of cold air will follow this system, which will provide the conditions necessary for snow across the Northeast and Northern Mid-Atlantic states. Current model runs suggest the Northern Appalachians could see 6-12 inches of snow from this storm, with snow reaching as far south as Pennsylvania and along the western slopes of the West Virginia mountains.

 

[Chazwozel]

IT'S GONNA RAIN!

 

[Ross]

What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 18-24

Highlights:

Potent system packs a punch - The ingredients are in place for a severe weather outbreak from the Plains to the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through the second half of the week.

Flooding potential in the Southeast - Several days of thunderstorms and heavy rain in the Southeast could drench some areas and cause flash flooding.

Returning to normal - After a prolonged period of record-breaking warmth, the eastern half of the nation will be seeing near-normal temperatures through most of the week.

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Discussion:

An ominously quiet first half of this week is going to give way to a powerful system that could wreak havoc from the Plains eastward Thursday and through the weekend. The exact timing and progression of this system is still being debated by the models, but the one thing that has been consistent with each run is the potential this storm has to crank out some serious severe weather. A wide expanse of low-level moisture, favorable wind profiles, thermal instability and upper level forcing are all coming together to create a dynamic and sustainable storm system which will unleash its fury in the upcoming days. As of now, the first day of widespread severe weather is expected on Thursday across the Central and Southern Plains, which will slowly progress eastward through Sunday. This could change as updates come in, so this system will need to be watched closely over the next few days.

The slow-moving nature of this system will allow it to trigger heavy rain and thunderstorms across the Southeast for several days, which could lead to significant flooding. The main concern will be across the southern portions of AL and GA and the Florida Panhandle as the continuous feed of Gulf moisture allows storms to unleash large amounts of rain onto the region. Flooding may also be a concern in the Central Plains and Midwest, which could see several days of wet weather from the warm front and ensuing cold front.

A series of frontal passages late last week has brought normal temperatures back into the eastern half of the country, which has seen well above normal temperatures and record breaking heat over the last couple of weeks. Comfortable Spring temperatures are expected this week, but there is a hint of warmer weather ahead next week.

 

[bigcountry23]

I was in shorts this past weekend. It will snow this Friday. I blame you.

 

[Dave]

What area in your forecast does Omaha fit in? Are we in the rain/flood area?

 

[Dusty668]

Iceland's making an ash of himself, how will that affect overall temperatures of the US? Aside from less scottish suntanners.

 

[Ross]

What area in your forecast does Omaha fit in? Are we in the rain/flood area?

Omaha is in the potential Plains flood area, but only if it gets targeted by multiple rounds of heavy rain. If you can avoid the worst of it, you should be alright.

Iceland's making an ash of himself, how will that affect overall temperatures of the US? Aside from less scottish suntanners.

It's a bit difficult to tell at this time. Depends on how long and how much ash comes out. I'll give you a bit more info later, as I'm about to go into work and don't have the time to research it.

 

[Ross]

Volcanic ash forecast for the Atlantic (UK Met. Office):
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8631889.stm

The U.S. should have a minimal impact along the Northeast Coast, while Newfoundland, Labrador and the Canadian Maritimes could see a slight impact from the ash. Winds predominately travel from West to East in the North Atlantic, so there shouldn't be much to worry about. The winds over the Arctic that are currently bringing the ash to North America are usually weak or neutral, so there will be breaks in training the ash westward.

 

[Ross]

Late update, but with good reason... had a wedding to go to, which included 14 hours of travel and only 2 hours off from work. Local severe weather kept me occupied this past evening before I had to head into work. Anyway...

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What To Watch Fore(cast) - Apr. 25 - May 1


Highlights:

Clear spell before second onslaught - A ridge of high pressure will keep things sunny and dry for the eastern half of the nation for several days, which will give way to another potent storm system with multiple-day outbreak possibilities.

Flood threat in the Southeast continues - The upcoming storm system could produce heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Southeast through the weekend.

Shifty pattern - If your body does not handle rapid changes in the weather well, this will not be a fun week for you.

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Discussion:

Behind the devastating storm system that generated what is currently 134 tornado reports over a five-day period will be a period of calmer and sunny weather. A ridge of high pressure will slide eastward from the West Coast to the East Coast over a period of approximately five days, which will give people enough time to recover from the last storm system before another strong low pressure system moves in behind it. Now that a lot of people have had their wake-up calls, it is time to prepare for the severe weather season to make sure you and your loved ones stay safe.

This upcoming storm system has the potential to create several days of severe weather and tornado outbreaks, much like the last storm system did. This system is currently showing its greatest potential in the Eastern Great Plains and Western Midwest and Southeast, starting on Thursday and continuing through the weekend. The potential for severe weather with this system will rival the system we just had, which had two days with a Moderate Risk area and one day with a High Risk area for severe weather (as issued by the Storm Prediction Center). High Risks are typically issued 1-3 times per year, so to have two systems with this kind of potential within such a short distance of time between them is a rare event. I predict that the SPC will issue at least two days of Moderate Risk potential with this system, and I will not rule out the possibility of another High Risk day during the week. This storm system will be affecting similar areas as the last storm, with the severe potential stretched a little further north in the Plains this time around.

As this potent system moves east, the Southeast could see multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms once again, which will only make the flooding potential worse across the region. The trailing end of the cold front associated with this system is forecasted to become quasi-stationary over the Southeast this weekend, which will enhance the rainfall potential throughout the Southeast as we head into next week.

Behind the ridge of high pressure and warm air will be a rapid change over to cooler temperatures as the strong storm system pushes east. This will be a continuation of the rapid shifts of warm and cold weather that has been affecting the western and central portions of the U.S. over the past week. For those who are sensitive to quick changes in the weather pattern, this could trigger or enhance illnesses, aches and pains as Spring does its thing.

 

[Ross]

What To Watch Fore(cast) - May 2-8

Highlights:

Steam bath and a shower - The Southeast will continue to see humid conditions, with widespread heavy rainfall expected this week as a frontal boundary hangs over the region.

The severe threat moves east - As the potent storm system slowly weakens and moves east, areas from Florida up through Maine have the potential for severe weather through Tuesday.

Another shot of severe weather - The Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states could see a round of severe weather during the second half of the work week before the threat moves into the Southern Plains and Southeast over the weekend.

Bake, then let cool - Parts of the East Coast are seeing record-breaking temperatures today and tomorrow, and will continue to be above average until cooler air moves in over the weekend.

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Discussion:

The rather convoluted pattern of low pressure systems will continue to make forecasting difficult this week. What looks to be most certain is the threat for massive flooding across the Southeast. The flooding has already begun in parts of the Southern Midwest and Southeast, with parts of Tennessee getting over a foot of rain! Radar estimates show isolated areas of 18 inches of rain so far from this storm system. There is a widespread area of 3-6 inches of rain that has accumulated over the last couple of days, which will expand in the Southeast through the first half of the week, causing flooding concerns for most of the region.

Along with the heavy rain, the potential for severe weather still exists, which will affect nearly all of the eastern third of the U.S. through Tuesday. Following in its wake, a low pressure system will move into South-Central Canada Wednesday, which will slowly push east through the second half of the week. The cold front associated with this system will be over the Midwest on Wednesday, which will slowly push south and east, making its way into the Central Plains, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic by the end of the week. All-in-all, this system won't have the big potential the last couple of severe weather systems have had, but the frontal boundary will provide a strong enough trigger mechanism to create severe weather. Towards the end of the week, another pocket of energy will makes its way to this frontal boundary and enhance the potential for severe weather over the weekend.

Following the passage of this next systems cold front late in the week will be a period of cooler weather across the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This will be a pleasant relief for those who are experiencing warm and humid weather at the start of the first full week of May.

 

[LittleSin]

Ross! Perhaps you can explain this to my fever addled brain!

The other day it was god damn nearly 20 degrees celucius up this way...the next day it shot back down and it fucking snowed. Why is the weather so damn unpredictable in Newfoundland?

 

[Dusty668]

"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get."

 

[Ross]

Ross! Perhaps you can explain this to my fever addled brain!

The other day it was god damn nearly 20 degrees celucius up this way...the next day it shot back down and it fucking snowed. Why is the weather so damn unpredictable in Newfoundland?

The Newfoundland region is a common place where low pressure systems go to grow old and die. Storm systems will push north out of the U.S. along the East Coast because a persistent area of high pressure over the Greenland area forces a lot of storms up that way. The result will be wildly fluctuating weather, which depends on the ultimate position of the storm system as it lingers over Newfoundland. If the high pressure over Greenland is strong and closer to the East Coast, the warmer temperatures can usually push in ahead of the storm system.

These storm systems, since they are blocked by the high pressure to the east, will sit and wobble over the Newfoundland region for days, which can cause extended periods of miserable weather and overcast skies between shots of warmer and sunnier weather.

 

[Ross]

What To Watch Fore(cast) - May 9-15

Highlights:

Mother's Day snow - Snow continues to fall in the Northeast as a low pressure system works it's way off the East Coast

Monday outbreak - Conditions are favorable for a tornado outbreak Monday in the Central Plains.

Rain returns to the Midwest - A series of low pressure systems will pump moisture into the southern Midwest this week, with 1-2" and locally higher amounts of rain expected across the region.

The Plains get a show - There will be the potential for severe weather every day this week in the Great Plains.

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Discussion:

Cold air from the north has seeped into the Northeast today, which allowed snow to fall over NY and the Northeast for a wintry Mother's Day. Some locations received an inch or more of snow, while most only got a dusting to half an inch. Snow in May isn't unheard of in the Northeast, but it certainly does not happen that often. The snow should quickly melt in the next couple of days as the Northeast warms back up ahead of a period of rainy weather, which will keep the Northeast cloudy from Wednesday through the rest of the week.

The atmosphere is primed for severe weather in the Central Plains and along a dry line in the Southern Plains tomorrow as a low pressure system slides in from the Southwest. Very good instability aloft along with a superb wind profile and forcing from the cold front will probably break the moderate cap that will be in place, which will cause explosive convection as supercell thunderstorms feed off of the 2000-3000+ CAPE. There is, however, the possibility that not much will happen at all. Lingering cloudiness and weak convective showers and storms in OK/TX could inhibit the moisture flow and daytime heating in the Central Plains, which could prevent the cap from breaking. Currently, the models are showing storms forming in eastern OK and heading into MO as these long-tracked storms provide locally heavy rain and intense wind, hail and possible tornadoes. At this point, I think the tornado outbreak will happen, as the setup is simply too good to ignore at this point. These nocturnal storms will be extremely dangerous, so those who live in the affected areas should keep a close eye on the weather tomorrow night.

A series of low pressure systems will move across the U.S. this week, which will form along a common boundary that will be the trigger for lots of rain in the Southern Midwest. Some areas that received several inches of rain from the recent storms could see another 1-2"+ of rain this week. Thankfully, it's looking like those who were hit worst by the flooding in TN and KY will miss the higher rainfall totals this week.

As these low pressure systems progress from west to east through the U.S., the Great Plains will have a constant feed of Gulf moisture due to a high pressure system setting up over the Southeast. This feed will be strong enough to allow convection to spark every day this week over the Plains ahead of the low pressure systems. This active period is great for chasers, and will help the VORTEX2 research team collect lots of valuable data and make up for last year's lack of severe weather.

 

[Ross]

What To Watch Fore(cast) - May 16-22

Abbreviated discussion this week (highlights only) due to a very odd weekend schedule (see: storm chasing). I may update with the full discussion later on.

Highlights:

Wet in the East - Areas east of the Mississippi will see several days of rain this week as a couple of low pressure systems bring warm and wet weather into the region.

Plains severe threat continues - Severe storms will continue to pop-up in the Plains through the first half of the week until a low pressure system moves in from the west gives the region several days of calmer weather in it's wake.

Pac. Northwest rain continues - Several systems will move into the Pacific Northwest throughout the week, providing a good amount of rain in a pattern that resembles the rainy season typical of the late Fall and Winter months.

Warm air surge - A ridge of high pressure will create an extended period of warmer weather through most of the nation east of the Rockies as it moves into place and takes control of the weather by the weekend.