Simplest Scenarios
- Germany: Advance with win/draw vs. USA
- United States: Advance with win/draw vs. GER
- Portugal: Advance with win vs. GHA
AND GER/USA do not tie,
IF POR wins tiebreak with loser (see below)
- Ghana: Advance with win vs. POR
AND GER/USA do not tie,
IF GHA wins tiebreak with loser (see below)
U.S. Scenarios
- Win/draw vs. Germany
- Loss and Portugal-Ghana draw
- Loss and win tiebreaker vs. Portugal-Ghana winner
Updated Soccer Power Index odds to advance:
(All the group percentages available at
fivethirtyeight.com)
- Germany: 99.7 percent
- United States: 75.8 percent
- Ghana: 19.1 percent
- Portugal: 5.4 percent
Tiebreakers
If the United States loses, Ghana would qualify instead if either game is decided by a margin of two goals or more. If the U.S. loses by one goal, Ghana would need to win by two goals or be involved in a higher-scoring one-goal win. For instance, a 1-0 scoreline in both games would put the United States through on head-to-head. So, if the U.S. loses 1-0, then Ghana must win 2-1 to qualify on goals scored.
To surpass the U.S., Portugal will need a goal-difference swing of five (head-to-head is level). So for instance, Portugal would need to win 3-0 and U.S. lose 2-0, among other equivalent scorelines. The teams will draw lots if goal difference is identical (this would happen with a 3-0 U.S. defeat and a 2-0 Portugal win, for example).