Can we talk about Oil?

PatrThom

PatrThom

Eriol said:
When you see people losing their jobs, and/or are out on the streets because of that, then will you still say that it's good? It employs 10,000s (if not more) people.
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This is unfortunate, and I will feel bad for these people, but I will not blame them for being evil, or slackers, or anything like that. If anything, I see them as semi-helpless victims of the industry itself. I'm sure that many rhino/elephant poachers* only poach because they need to support their families, and I feel sorry that they would have to stoop to being associated with such a business in order to make ends meet, and yes I will even feel bad for their families if one of them gets sniped while in the process of harvesting a horn or two, but I would not at all feel bad about there being less poaching as a result.

EDIT: Because I tend to have such trouble making myself clear, let me expound on the above. I think that these industries are actually taking advantage of the current oversupply of labor by selling/spinning their inherently environmentally destructive process as "good for jobs and good for people" because they know there will then be that resistance to eliminating those jobs later. I'm sure you can ask @DarkAudit how that sort of thing turns out.

--Patrick
*I mean the ones who actually do the hunting, not the distributors/smugglers, who no doubt mark up their product thousands of percent once acquired from the poachers themselves.
 
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Bubble181

Bubble181

Lower oil prices:
1. Help America and Europe geopolitically, hurting Russia and giving a warning towards China
2. Help the American (except those bits going for shale oil etc) and (especially) European economy, because we can import cheaper and transport cheaper - and it lessens our tendency to fork over all our money to terrorist supporting bastards (or are people not aware IS is "the richest terrorist organisation ever" because of their incredible amount of oil exports?)
3. Lets OPEC continue to sell their oil and keeps their oil industry profitable, since continuing high prices were pushing Europe towards alternative fuels and electric far too fast - better to sell your oil at $50 a barrel than not to be able to sell it at all if the US pumps up their own and Europe transfers most of our non-production oil usage towards other fuels
4. Allows China to buy up ever more oil it needs for its massive growing industries - from Russia, but at lower cost than what we'd pay.

Really, generally, it's good for America (in the short term), Europe (in both long and short term, excpet if we stop investing in alternative fuels now), OPEC, and CHina, and it's bad for Russia and, to a lesser extent, IS and supporting groups. The only "good guys" taking a hit are the American states/groups/industries who insisted on investing heavily in shale oil and drilling in Alaska - even though those are the same groups who at least partially made this move possible. Since they're mostly republican-alligned, the White House won't feel too bad about'm though. It's, in general, the smart thing to do right now.
 
Necronic

Necronic

Staff member
Abdullah has now abdicated the throne into a very confusing line succession (apparently there are two heir apparents). This is not a good combination. Its like someone lit the match and walked away. And while they walked away they kicked over another can of (if you'll pardon the expression) gasoline.
 
PatrThom

PatrThom

Under $48/bbl, now.
Also, gas stations around here all went up about $0.30 on Mon. I'd complain, but that just means they're only back up to $2 now.

--Patrick
 
AshburnerX

AshburnerX

Same. It's 2.09 here when this morning it was 1.40 something. It'll slowly come back down to 1.50-1.60 in a few days but the Saudi King thing has people scared.
 
DarkAudit

DarkAudit

Necronic said:
Abdullah has now abdicated the throne into a very confusing line succession (apparently there are two heir apparents). This is not a good combination. Its like someone lit the match and walked away. And while they walked away they kicked over another can of (if you'll pardon the expression) gasoline.
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Where is this abdication news? Nothing on BBC or any other reputable news sites.
 
sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker

I am nostalgic for the time during Clinton's Presidency that gas at a cash only gas station was $0.74. That is less than it was before the Carter gas crunch.
 
Necronic

Necronic

Staff member
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Tress

Tress

I am jealous of you people and your cheap gas. When it dipped around here, it went down to $2.79. Of course it's better than the $4.37 it was at a while ago.
 
Eriol

Eriol

Necronic said:
Huh, fair point. Only two websites that I see that have it are Jerusalem Online and DEBKAfile. This could be a spin piece...

ED: One of those does reference an Egyptian newspaper, but doesn't link to it.

Ed2: One reputable source does have it stated that Abdullah is very ill

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/03/w...llah-is-hospitalized-with-pneumonia.html?_r=1
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This article has how the death of him was a hoax twitter account: http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-...e-death-of-saudi-arabias-king-abdullah-2015-1

Something more up-to-date about the Saudi King: http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/...-the-saudi-king-ailing-the-speculation-begins Still in hospital with pneumonia, but he's 90, so it's not like this is weird for a guy his age. Crown prince delivers speech King was going to, and thus seems in control if needed.

So knowing nothing specific myself, I'd say "seems like a relatively stable succession to me." But I don't know the country.
 
Necronic

Necronic

Staff member
That NPR link does specifically talk about how its suspected that Salman is suffering from dementia. Which is part of where the succession crisis arises from. The other part of the issue is that the next guy in line, Muqrin, did not have a royal mother. Not sure how much that matters, but I've seen it mentioned in more than a few places.
 
AshburnerX

AshburnerX

Necronic said:
That NPR link does specifically talk about how its suspected that Salman is suffering from dementia. Which is part of where the succession crisis arises from. The other part of the issue is that the next guy in line, Muqrin, did not have a royal mother. Not sure how much that matters, but I've seen it mentioned in more than a few places.
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It shouldn't in the slightest. The current royal line is less than a hundred years old and has already had royal matters settled by assassination.

I'm actually wondering how much this has to do with oil and how much has to do with the fact that in 2015, women are going to be allowed to vote and hold office in Saudi Arabia for the first time?
 
Bubble181

Bubble181

AshburnerX said:
women are going to be allowed to vote and hold office in Saudi Arabia for the first time?
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Want to bet on what percentage of women will actually be allowed to go vote by their husbands/fathers/fathers-in-law? 'cause the family patriarch is allowed to keep any other family member from leaving the house, you know....heh.
 
AshburnerX

AshburnerX

Bubble181 said:
Want to bet on what percentage of women will actually be allowed to go vote by their husbands/fathers/fathers-in-law? 'cause the family patriarch is allowed to keep any other family member from leaving the house, you know....heh.
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The Saudi Royal family is actually ultra-progressive (for the region), despite the lip service they give to the conservative religious authority. I wouldn't be surprised if they said "You can't stop them" and enforced it.
 
Bubble181

Bubble181

Sure, the Royal Family is progressive - I'm aware. Now you t ell me how they're going to stop people in a household from locking up their wives and daughters if they want to. Y'know, in the only country in the world where women can't drive a car. Or a divorce. Or testify in court in most matters.

The Royal Court can vote laws all they want, if I don't let my women out of the house, the only way to enforce those laws is martial law and have cops search every house - but given that half the cops don't agree with these progressive ideas,....well.
Anyway, I'm not saying no women will go vote, not at all, and I know they'll try to get them out there. I'm just saying I'm convinced female turnout will be drastically lower than male turnout, and not by choice.
 
AshburnerX

AshburnerX

I gotta ask... are people still really pushing for Keystone during this? It seems like not building the damn thing may have been a smart move in the long run, environmental issues aside.
 
Frank

Frank

I know that sounds good to you, but I know of a lot of people who just lost their jobs over this. It isn't all rainbows and puppy dogs.
 
Bubble181

Bubble181

Frank said:
I know that sounds good to you, but I know of a lot of people who just lost their jobs over this. It isn't all rainbows and puppy dogs.
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...I know a lot of people who lost their jobs over the invention of the car - plenty of manure shovellers and coachmen. Doesn't mean it was wrong to go for cars. No economic or technological progress happens without pain in some places. Someone always loses, and it's the government's task to make sure individuals don't get crunched by economic changes. Oh wait, Americans don't like social security. Yeah, those guys are fucked. Comes with the whole "super free capitalism without any decent social mechanisms to support the small victims of big movements" thing you've got going on.
Ford just closed down a big plant here in Belgium - put 10.000 people out of a job. Sure, that hurts - them, and other businesses around. All of them are getting re-education, golden handshakes, extra support, relocation extras. Will it hurt? Sure it will - until someone else starts something new, or a lot of people start a lot of small new things. The economy will bounce back - maybe in 5 years' time, maybe in 10 years'. Bridging that gap is what social security is all about. The abuse of people lying in their sofa and being social parasites, taxes being about twice as high...Well, that's the downside. They're both valid social systems, but they're a choice.
 
Mathias

Mathias

Eriol said:
When you see people losing their jobs, and/or are out on the streets because of that, then will you still say that it's good? It employs 10,000s (if not more) people.

That's the problem with wishing ill on an industry: you hurt the little guy FIRST, not last.


I'm fine because of this, but I know many people who will not be if it continues.
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Dude. This is true of EVERY industry. That's how economy works - one thing goes up and another goes down.

Here's my conservative, heartless bastard side coming out: the only way to be safe from economic ups and downs is to diversify your skillset and never buckle down to doing one thing. Ever. Work as a roughneck? Get some welding skills, etc....[DOUBLEPOST=1421510112,1421509954][/DOUBLEPOST]
AshburnerX said:
I gotta ask... are people still really pushing for Keystone during this? It seems like not building the damn thing may have been a smart move in the long run, environmental issues aside.
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As long as Congressmen are sucking someone's dick for cash, they'll always push that agenda.[DOUBLEPOST=1421510363][/DOUBLEPOST]
Frank said:
That's not true.
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You're right, the auto industry was a HUGE job boon! You know why though? Manual labor was still useful for that industry. Truth is that industries go up and down. The best resilience to that is diversifying yourself as a person. Problem is as people get older they get comfortable and complacent in what they do. One of my personal goals in life is to never get that way.
 
AshburnerX

AshburnerX

Mathias said:
Samsung would be a great modern example of a company that IS branching out their products to keep up with the market. They've been brewing a huge pharmaceuticals division. Yeah. The guys that make electronics and appliances are branching into pharma. Why? Well, science depends on technology.
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This isn't even odd in the slightest. Sony makes a lot of it's money selling insurance in Japan.
 
Necronic

Necronic

Staff member
Ok, so Abdullah wasn't dead when I posted that last link. But he's definitely dead now. Any speculation on if this will have any affect on the oil market?
 
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