a Trump vs Clinton United States Presidential Election in 2016
- Thread starter Charlie Don't Surf
- Start date
Dave
Staff member
Not if Johnson is not a viable candidate. Which he is not. His platform is not plausible in any way.
GasBandit
Staff member
The latter is just your opinion. The former is a tautology - third party candidates aren't viable because nobody will vote for them because they aren't viable because nobody will vote for them et cetera.
Here's a takedown of why many of the precepts of extreme Libertarianism - ie the notion that government cannot do anything right and that the private sector does everything better - do not hold water. It's long, but well worth reading.
http://www.raikoth.net/libertarian.html
And Gary Johnson is a more viable candidate than Jill Stein, but I'm not convinced he can capture more than 5% of the popular vote in a national election.
http://www.raikoth.net/libertarian.html
And Gary Johnson is a more viable candidate than Jill Stein, but I'm not convinced he can capture more than 5% of the popular vote in a national election.
Because an elected president can do what they want? I know the past couple of guys in the Oval office spent a good amount of time trying to avoid and weaken the checks and balances in the system, but do you really believe that we would get a 100% party platform put in if any of the candidates were elected?
Everyone wants compromise in the government until they realize that would mean the other guy also gets something he wants. A small amount a Libertarianism would be good for the federal government.
I agree. I think that The DMN only endorses Hillary Clinton because they are locked in the two-party mindset. I would think Johnson would be the closest match for their values.
I disagree with the sentiment of that meme.
GasBandit
Staff member
GasBandit
Staff member
Won't get elected, either
GasBandit
Staff member
Better to get vaporized for what you believe in than to live a lie.
Here's the thing. If Gary Johnson improves by 2000% over his last attempt, he'll get 19.8% of the popular vote, or about 24 million votes. Barack Obama garned just under 66 million, and Mitt Romney just under 61 million in 2012. The numbers are not on his side.[DOUBLEPOST=1473270337,1473270307][/DOUBLEPOST]
Also what he believed in probably resulted in a nuclear war of annihilation once the truth was revealed.
GasBandit
Staff member
Yes, he has little to no chance of being elected this year. The real goal here is to get people thinking about taking third party candidates more seriously as an alternative. Best case scenario would be having Johnson (and maybe even Stein) included in the presidential debates.
Assuming Hillary can stop coughing long enough for debate to take place.
If Gary Johnson got even 10% of the vote, it'd rock the Hill, might destroy the Republican party completely, make (at least one) third party candidates viable, would increase his name recognition a thousand fold, and so on. I don't think even the most wild of his supporters thinks he's going to get elected pretty much out of the blue this election. But with two historically unpopular (and horrible) candidates, this might be a once-in-a-lifetime chance to get enough traction to break in.
In most of Europe, the power has been split at least since WWII among local variations of christian-democrats, social-democrats, liberals, maybe nationalists and one other party based on some local variation. In the last 5-10 years, we've seen extreme left and right "citizen's movements" rise up to try and reclaim power - some more successful than others (Syriza, 5 stars, Podemos, Fortuyn, UKIP, AfD, and so on). In American politics, in many ways, Trump and Sanders reflected those shifting sands. Sanders was successfully kept out by the establishment, Trump managed to wrestle in. Johnson doesn't quite fit the bill, but he still might manage, given enough attention, to make a decent-sized splash vs Trump.
GasBandit
Staff member
With the exception of Ted Cruz, the republicans have done little but cave and buckle for the last 8+ years. Obamacare? Buckled. Defund it? Nope, buckled. Immigration? Buckled. Iran? Buckled. Fiscal policy? Buckled. They've basically reneged on every campaign promise they've made.
And if that 20% of the popular vote is focused in certain states enough that he gets, say, 10% of the electoral votes, he could prevent either of the other candidates from getting a majority and force the Republican controlled House of Representatives to choose the next President, where he might look like the more appealing option to "establishment" Republicans who hate Hilary and think Trump's a madman.
Of course, that's still an extreme longshot and pretty much requires him to get on the debate stage, which as Gas mentioned would be a victory for the party in and of itself.
Sign update - the Trump yard sign on my block did its 4th cycle of disappearing and reappearing. I don't think it's being stolen, since it's always an old one, not Trump/Pence. But they could just have a bunch of them or somewhere to buy old ones again. Who knows. Also, I saw a Johnson for President sign in a grassy road median at a big intersection driving around.
GasBandit
Staff member
What do you mean, "citation needed?" It's a matter of public record. Obamacare could not have passed without republicans switching sides and voting for it. They did. Republicans could have defunded it when they controlled the house, but they decided instead to abdicate responsibility and let the Supreme Court handle it - we saw how well that happened when Roberts - a republican nominee - showed his true colors. The Dodd-Frank financial reform bill of 2010 - a horrific abomination if ever there was one, which did nothing to mitigate the problem it ostensibly addressed - was filibustered a mere two days before republicans caved. Obama's executive order on immigration? Could have been defunded. Republicans caved. The Iran deal that basically streamlines their path to nuclear weapons? Republicans caved.
Come the fuck on
Just a reminder: third parties don't need to win enough votes to become president to become "viable". They simply need to exist at a level great enough to disrupt national and local elections and to do so consistently. If the Libertarian Party can get so much as 3-5% of the total vote, it would be enough to make the Republicans AND Democrats fall to some of their demands because that is MORE than enough to decide a national election in ether direction.
Basically, the winning condition for a third party is force ether the Dems or Republicans into a coalition government. Becoming a majority is also a victory, but it's a much harder victory to accomplish.
Basically, the winning condition for a third party is force ether the Dems or Republicans into a coalition government. Becoming a majority is also a victory, but it's a much harder victory to accomplish.
GasBandit
Staff member
Boo fucking hoo. You guys are happy as clams to take jabs at any politician you don't agree with no matter how cheap. Not being able to stop coughing for 4 minutes straight is worth a mention. Imagine if that had happened to McCain or Bob Dole. There would be SO much consternation and hand-wringing.
100% of the people I know involved in radio advertisements are radical libertarians. Coincidence?[DOUBLEPOST=1473273460,1473273396][/DOUBLEPOST]
When I was in college I remember McCain's age and health, and the risk of him dying in office and leaving us with President Palin, being discussed everywhere.
GasBandit
Staff member
That's because their campaign promises were unrealistic and stupid. They had to give ground because they were NEVER, EVER going to succeed. And on top of that, they SHOULDN'T succeed because their campaign promises would have hurt the country far more.
She has seasonal allergies. This means as much as Gary Johnson's heart attack.
Age is not a factor this year since both candidates are relatively old. If Clinton or Trump were in their 40's while the other stayed the same age, then it would be a HUGE talking point.
Except his heart attack was funny. Clinton's improv during the coughing fit was pretty lame, C-.
... What do you mean your elections are not a popularity contest?
McCain -> Old., Obama -> Younger.
Clinton -> Sick?, Trump -> Healthier?
Are the parallels so hard to see?
GasBandit
Staff member
I disagree. All the examples I gave were ones where the country would have been best served by the republicans digging in and fighting tooth and nail.
GasBandit
Staff member
You know who has to sign the repeal for it to actually repeal, right? So did they. It was 58 empty gestures and everybody knew it.
But at least they didn't compromise.
GasBandit
Staff member
Indeed. Capitulation isn't compromise - in a compromise you actually get some of what you want.