a Trump vs Clinton United States Presidential Election in 2016

Who do you vote into the office of USA President?

  • Total voters
    48
strawman

strawman

It's always illuminating to see the electoral college so starkly portrayed in early voting.

Both candidates have 5-6 million popular votes.

Hillary has 3 electoral votes, while Donald has 24.

We aren't anywhere near an upset, but let's see how FL and PA go before you break out the sackcloth and ashes, eh?[DOUBLEPOST=1478653498,1478653225][/DOUBLEPOST]However, you can go ahead and worry about the senate. Right now it's forecast as a 55% chance to be republican held, but if Indiana chooses Young(R), then it's a 68% chance the senate will be held by republicans.

Right now Indiana has 30% precincts reporting, and Young(R) has a 14% lead on Bayh (D).

Again, still early, but the projections over the senate should trouble you more than those for president.

And, honestly, many republicans will probably be ok with that outcome.
 
strawman

strawman

And I spoke too soon, Democrats picked up a seat in Illinois, so their chances have improved to 48%.

Guess we'll have to wait another hour or two to get a better picture of the senate.[DOUBLEPOST=1478653684,1478653595][/DOUBLEPOST]NYT has 83% clinton win.

It's 8pm ET, a huge number of states are closing their polls right now. Should have quite a few more results in the next hour.
 
Krisken

Krisken



That said, I am really pulling for Russ Feingold. I don't think I can sleep until I know if he has regained his seat from the horrible Ron Johnson.
 
strawman

strawman

Zappit said:
Just get Florida. Just once, Florida, don't go for the orange.
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It's looking shaky, and right now Trump is ahead. The problem with that is that while some democrat strongholds have yet to report, the florida panhandle is widely republican, so unless there's a very strong shift back towards Clinton as the main portion reports, then Trump has a fighting chance as the panhandle reports.

That said, even if he gets Florida he still has to get several more blue states before he really has a chance against Clinton, which is why everyone is still predicting that he only has a 20% - 25% chance of winning right now.

Here's the commentary I'm following, it's actually fairly informative:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

Scroll down to the red/blue snake graph and you'll see the states trump has to win before it's possible for him to win everything.
 
phil

phil

60% reporting

Votes

Donald Trump
Republican Party

48%
3,983,244

Hillary Clinton
Democratic Party

48%
3,983,216

Holy crap a 30 vote difference right now
 
strawman

strawman

Florida might actually go to Trump. NH and NC are then next battleground states to watch. If they go Clinton then Trump will have to pull something huge, like PA, to make up for the loss.

Still not a lot of counties reporting in any of those states, though, so we'll have to twiddle our thumbs a bit longer.
 
Covar

Covar

stienman said:
Florida might actually go to Trump. NH and NC are then next battleground states to watch. If they go Clinton then Trump will have to pull something huge, like PA, to make up for the loss.

Still not a lot of counties reporting in any of those states, though, so we'll have to twiddle our thumbs a bit longer.
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NC will bounce a few times I suspect. We were red when I started eating and blue when I finished.
 
jwhouk

jwhouk

I'm refusing to go watch the local stations about how Wisconsin goes...[DOUBLEPOST=1478655351,1478655308][/DOUBLEPOST]Welp, Paul Ryan's role as the Speaker of the House is assured, for the moment.
 
strawman

strawman

69% chance of a republican senate, and several news organizations have called the house for the republicans.

Covar said:
This still seems to early to put a check on a candidate.
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The state has 49% reporting. That graphic and the numbers are out of date, but the check mark is up to date.[DOUBLEPOST=1478656019,1478655867][/DOUBLEPOST]NC with 16% reporting has a 2% difference between the two candidates... Yeesh. I don't know enough about the reporting counties, but right now it's forecast as a 58% chance that Clinton will win it:

http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/north-carolina
 
strawman

strawman

If trump gets NC and FL, we will have a very late night indeed. And while Clinton might still pick up FL, it's a reach, she's behind by 100k votes right now.[DOUBLEPOST=1478656358,1478656183][/DOUBLEPOST]Palm beach, broward, and another typically democratic county are still only half reported in FL. It's still a tossup. The Florida residents, however, really are divided on immigration and for them, moreso than many places in the US, it's a real issue they have to understand and work with.[DOUBLEPOST=1478656431][/DOUBLEPOST]Ohio is apparently up in the air, and might possibly go to clinton, which would be a huge blow to trump.
 
strawman

strawman

jwhouk said:
I just wanna know why anyone would go to the polls so damn late?
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Polling closes in nearly all states by 8pm local time. Further, counties don't start reporting race results until after their own polls close, in order to avoid altering the race by early results. They don't care about other states though.
 
jwhouk

jwhouk

[DOUBLEPOST=1478658928,1478658649][/DOUBLEPOST]One thing that has been noted is that states with a low percentage of college-educated citizens have all voted for Trump.
 
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strawman

strawman

FL with 95% reporting is 2% trump ahead.[DOUBLEPOST=1478659680,1478659601][/DOUBLEPOST]
jwhouk said:
The pollsters who thought Clinton could take Wayne County forgot that no one lives there anymore...
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Well I think they may have discounted that the economy trumps even race. people here are dealing with both outsourcing and immigration.
 
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