Democratic Primary: Crisis of infinite candidates

[ScytheRexx]

The issue is we are at a turning point. People are sick of the status quo. Trump and Bernie are harbingers of this need to change, both on the left and right, and it absolutely scares the establishment. When Trump was elected, the right side basically fell into line because they accepted that "Trump Republicans" was the new normal. To survive at all and get stuff they want done, they had to accept that change.

The democratic establishment, on the other hand, still refuses to learn after the upsetting loss of Hillary in 2016 and the booming popularity of Bernie Sanders, and it's going to bite them in the ass over and over again until they finally pull their heads out of said ass and accept it. They won't though, because accepting it means losing money and power. They will want Trump to win again simply because the status quo and all those campaign donations leading to a 2024 race is preferable to losing a whole lot of wealthy donors because of M4A or Loan Forgiveness.

The system won't change until we get the money out of the system, but the people that run the system want the money, so we are just screwed.

 

[MindDetective]

The issue is we are at a turning point. People are sick of the status quo. Trump and Bernie are harbingers of this need to change, both on the left and right, and it absolutely scares the establishment. When Trump was elected, the right side basically fell into line because they accepted that "Trump Republicans" was the new normal. To survive at all and get stuff they want done, they had to accept that change.

The democratic establishment, on the other hand, still refuses to learn after the upsetting loss of Hillary in 2016 and the booming popularity of Bernie Sanders, and it's going to bite them in the ass over and over again until they finally pull their heads out of said ass and accept it. They won't though, because accepting it means losing money and power. They will want Trump to win again simply because the status quo and all those campaign donations leading to a 2024 race is preferable to losing a whole lot of wealthy donors because of M4A or Loan Forgiveness.

The system won't change until we get the money out of the system, but the people that run the system want the money, so we are just screwed.

Actually, I think there are a good chunk of people that don't want Bernie. Saying (or implying) that Bernie voters are the new normal is extremely disengenuous. The Democrats are essentially two parties right now. I think there is a decent argument that the GOP is as well.

Where do the disaffected GOP voters that dislike Trump go? Where do the people who think Bernie is a DINO go? Bernie is not owed the nomination, you know. This is why I find the conspiracy BS about Bernie being a victim extremely irritating. Everyone is in their echo chambers and don't realize the entire world (or even the Democrats) is not in line with them. But everyone backs their racehorse and boos the rest. No wonder we all seem so divided.

 

[Bubble181]

Actually, I think there are a good chunk of people that don't want Bernie. Saying (or implying) that Bernie voters are the new normal is extremely disengenuous. The Democrats are essentially two parties right now. I think there is a decent argument that the GOP is as well.

Where do the disaffected GOP voters that dislike Trump go? Where do the people who think Bernie is a DINO go? Bernie is not owed the nomination, you know. This is why I find the conspiracy BS about Bernie being a victim extremely irritating. Everyone is in their echo chambers and don't realize the entire world (or even the Democrats) is not in line with them. But everyone backs their racehorse and boos the rest. No wonder we all seem so divided.

If there was a Trump party, an economically-liberal-small-government Republican party, an ethically-conservative religious-inspired party, a moderate-social-security party, a green party, and a left-wing socialist party, you'd get a more representative democracy...and I'm convinced the middle parties would score better than either of extreme (though calling Bernie extreme is only really true in an American context). But neither party stands to gain from being the first to splinter apart, and nobody is willing to make a leap of faith. System's set up to maintain the system. Though I still hold out hope for a gradual evolution instead of a revolution, the Sanders-Trump era seems to be heading the more violent and disruptive way.

 

[blotsfan]

Man I love that I don't get to vote until late April when everything should be close to decided. What a great system.

Anywhom if you're in a state with a primary today, vote for Bernie.

 

[Bubble181]

Man I love that I don't get to vote until late April when everything should be close to decided. What a great system.

Anywhom if you're in a state with a primary today, vote for Bernie the candidate you honestly believe has the best chance of defeating Trump and repairing the country, no matter which one that is

 

[blotsfan]

No. Bernie. Not a sundowning centrist who doesn't believe that poor people deserve healthcare. Not someone just sticking around for shits and giggles. Bernie.

 

[ScytheRexx]

Actually, I think there are a good chunk of people that don't want Bernie. Saying (or implying) that Bernie voters are the new normal is extremely disengenuous. The Democrats are essentially two parties right now. I think there is a decent argument that the GOP is as well.

I never said "Bernie voters" were the new normal. I never said specifically anything about his voters.

What I am saying, is that the reason for his popularity, and that of Trump, is a symptom of a wider need for drastic change. Whether that change moves towards a fascist state or a social state depends on who we let drive, but it's naive to think at this point, post-Trump, we will be able to walk the center line anymore.

Personally? I don't care who wins the nomination. I just care that Trump gets out of office before he has any chance to further break down our democracy. I think Bernie has a better chance then Biden in that regard based on all the data I have read. Believe it or not, but the whole argument that Bernie scares away moderates isn't exactly accurate. In fact, Bernie has shown to be one of the least polarizing down the left spectrum and is even popular with Republicans that are either sick of Trump, or were hoping for Trump to be a grenade to the system that they felt didn't work out as they hoped. I don't see Biden getting that same support. I worry we, as Americans, are shooting ourselves in the foot by picking another establishment canidate tied to a past regime. It didn't work with Hillary, it's not likely to work with Biden.

Maybe I am wrong. If Biden gets the nomination, I sure hope I am.

 

[@Li3n]

...

So, Bernie then?

Or did you forget 2016 already?

 

[Bubble181]

So, Bernie then?

Or did you forget 2016 already?

If that's who you think is the best choice, by all means. I'm certainly no big Biden fan. I just think you should vote for the candidate you think gives the best shot, rather than just vote for Bernie because of Bernie. You have free will, use it.

 

[blotsfan]

I just think you should vote for the candidate you think gives the best shot, rather than just vote for Bernie because of Bernie. You have free will, use it.

And I'll use my free will to encourage people to not be stupid.

 

[Krisken]

Call people who are basically on your side but have differing opinions on who best to vote for stupid. Thats how you convince them.

 

[ScytheRexx]

I think tensions are just high because we all want the same thing, and we don't all agree on what will actually get us there. I had a big worry that the primary, with so many canidates rather then one clear candidate, was going to cause a divisive schism that will lose the election, and I worry I might have been right. Whoever wins, I will vote for them, but my positivity that Trump will be ousted is really low.

 

[Fun Size]

Guys, guys...

 

[blotsfan]

Call people who are basically on your side but have differing opinions on who best to vote for stupid. Thats how you convince them.

"I'm only being racist because you said voting trump made me racist."

 

[Krisken]

That's so nonsensical, im not even going to bother trying to unpack it. You're better than this.

Democrats arent going to lose because of the candidates, they are going to lose because of their supporters. This forum has pretty much convinced me we will have to endure another 4 years of this nonsense.

 

[blotsfan]

The same logic. "I make major choices based on someone saying something that's mean on the internet."

Fact of the matter is, one candidate wants everyone to have healthcare. One candidate isn't very clearly going through dementia. One candidate doesn't make protecting pharmaceutical company profits a high priority. If you decide none of that matters because someone online said something blunt, that's on you.

 

[Bubble181]

That's so nonsensical, im not even going to bother trying to unpack it. You're better than this.

Democrats arent going to lose because of the candidates, they are going to lose because of their supporters. This forum has pretty much convinced me we will have to endure another 4 years of this nonsense.

Polls say (according to 538 and I tend to believe them when it comes to interpreting polling numbers) that over 25% of Bernie fans would be unwilling to come out and vote for any other democratic candidate. That's an astounding number. That's over a quarter of Bernie fans who have, indeed, not learned anything from 2016. Yeah, it might not be your preferred candidate, but any of them (well...Bloomberg... egghhhhh) would be miles and miles better than four more years. As the French socialists did 10 years ago when they went voting for the right-wing candidate because the only other option was extreme right, put clothespins on your nose, be loud and clear, but GO VOTE BECAUSE THE ALTERNATIVE IS WORSE.
But no - the democratic establishment is so evil that if it can't be Bernie, it "might as well" be Trump.

By all means, campaign for Bernie. But don't do it in such a way that all other democratic candidates become your enemy, because they're not.

 

[blotsfan]

I'll vote for Biden but when he loses (and he 100% will lose if he's the nominee), can we talk about how the DNC learned nothing from 2016?

 

[@Li3n]

Polls say (according to 538 and I tend to believe them when it comes to interpreting polling numbers) that over 25% of Bernie fans would be unwilling to come out and vote for any other democratic candidate. That's an astounding number. That's over a quarter of Bernie fans who have, indeed, not learned anything from 2016. Yeah, it might not be your preferred candidate, but any of them (well...Bloomberg... egghhhhh) would be miles and miles better than four more years. As the French socialists did 10 years ago when they went voting for the right-wing candidate because the only other option was extreme right, put clothespins on your nose, be loud and clear, but GO VOTE BECAUSE THE ALTERNATIVE IS WORSE.
But no - the democratic establishment is so evil that if it can't be Bernie, it "might as well" be Trump.

By all means, campaign for Bernie. But don't do it in such a way that all other democratic candidates become your enemy, because they're not.

Except that there's a reason why Trump won the primary in 2016, and that's because he was the only one promising something new, and enough people who didn't usually vote came out for him.

Same thing for Bernie, he's promising something new, and that attracts people that would normally not vote because they don't want to *"vote for the lesser evil"*.

And sound political strategy should be based on what the people want top vote for, not what you think they will vote against. Especially not since last time they didn't vote against it in the places that mattered.

 

[Krisken]

I'll vote for Biden but when he loses (and he 100% will lose if he's the nominee), can we talk about how the DNC learned nothing from 2016?

Im fine with complaining about the establishment. The party system is a joke.

 

[Dave]

I'd vote for a moldy ham sandwich before I vote for Trump. My only caveat to that is that Bloomberg is a moldy ham sandwich and I'd go third party if he bought got the nomination.

 

[PatrThom]

I'd vote for a moldy ham sandwich before I vote for Trump.

This is my biggest problem, really. The DNC knows they could run that moldy ham sandwich and still get at least 30% of the vote, but they’re so dead set on putting a ham sandwich in office that they’re spending all their time and effort scraping the mold off their ham sandwich to try to improve on that 30% rather than even CONSIDER the possibility that the People might be tired of ham sandwiches and want a BLT or PB&J instead.

—Patrick

 

[MindDetective]

I never said "Bernie voters" were the new normal. I never said specifically anything about his voters.

Not in those words, no, but...

the reason for his popularity

...does imply such a thing. After all, if he is popular, those people will vote for him, right? That is why I included my parenthetical...

Saying (or implying)

What you seem to be saying (in a roundabout way) is that Bernie is the most popular so the others should just back off. But the voting process is the way of seeing if he is the most popular. So, let's find out, shall we? Maybe without clamoring "cheat, cheat!" before the votes are in?

 

[PatrThom]

Well, it looks like Bernie won Vermont.

—Patrick

 

[ScytheRexx]

What you seem to be saying (in a roundabout way) is that Bernie is the most popular so the others should just back off. But the voting process is the way of seeing if he is the most popular. So, let's find out, shall we? Maybe without clamoring "cheat, cheat!" before the votes are in?

Nope, never said he was more popular either. Popularity /= Most Popular. You don't need to be more popular to win, Hillary was more popular then Trump (but way less popular then Obama), but she lost because we don't work on who gets the most votes.

When all this is said and done, you are going to have three voters. Those that wanted Bernie to win, those that wanted Biden to win, and those that don't care, as long as it's not Trump. What I argue is that the "Bernie" camp, being more zealous in their ideals, are going to stay home during the general election because they see no difference between Trump and Biden. Those that wanted Biden are more likely to be in the camp of just wanting to get rid of Trump, and will more likely vote for Bernie even if they don't agree with him. Most Republicans are going to vote for Trump regardless. Bernie has been the only candidate that has polled as "generally acceptable" through the primary so far for all democrats from progressives to centrists, while Biden, who is way more popular with centrists, is seen as terrible to progressives.

Again, it's not about popularity, because you don't need to be the most popular to win. It's who ends up bringing everyone in their coalition, more so people in specific states, to the table. If Biden gets the nomination and then half the democrats stay home again like they did for Hillary, because he is just another establishment and they wanted a progressive, then we are going to have four more years of Trump.

 

[blotsfan]

As we all expected

 

[MindDetective]

Nope, never said he was more popular either. You don't need to be more popular to win, Hillary was more popular then Trump (but way less popular then Obama), but she lost because we don't work on who gets the most votes.

Sure, but you've said nothing about the key states at all. You've generally slammed the DNC and pumped up Bernie as a "harbinger of change":

The issue is we are at a turning point. People are sick of the status quo. Trump and Bernie are harbingers of this need to change, both on the left and right, and it absolutely scares the establishment. When Trump was elected, the right side basically fell into line because they accepted that "Trump Republicans" was the new normal. To survive at all and get stuff they want done, they had to accept that change.

The democratic establishment, on the other hand, still refuses to learn after the upsetting loss of Hillary in 2016 and the booming popularity of Bernie Sanders, and it's going to bite them in the ass over and over again until they finally pull their heads out of said ass and accept it. They won't though, because accepting it means losing money and power. They will want Trump to win again simply because the status quo and all those campaign donations leading to a 2024 race is preferable to losing a whole lot of wealthy donors because of M4A or Loan Forgiveness.

When all this is said and done, you are going to have three voters. Those that wanted Bernie to win, those that wanted Biden to win, and those that don't care, as long as it's not Trump. What I argue is that the "Bernie" camp, being more zealous in their ideals, are going to stay home during the general election because they see no difference between Trump and Biden. Those that wanted Biden are more likely to be in the camp of just wanting to get rid of Trump, and will more likely vote for Bernie even if they don't agree with him. Most Republicans are going to vote for Trump regardless. Bernie has been the only candidate that has polled as "generally acceptable" through the primary so far for all democrats from progressives to centrists, while Biden, while more popular with centrists, is seen as terrible to progressives.

You absolutely might believe that but you never in any of the last couple of posts said that. Your claims, the ones that prompted my response, where about the "lesson the DNC never learned" and "new normal" and "People are sick of the status quo", none of which speak to this new point you are verbalizing. Yes, some people are. Is it enough? Is it in the right places? Your broad claims are what I am irked by here. Not what you are now following it up with:

Again, it's not about popularity, because you don't need to be the most popular to win. It's who ends up bringing everyone in their coalition, more so people in specific states, to the table. If Biden gets the nomination and then half the democrats stay home again like they did for Hillary, because he is just another establishment and they wanted a progressive, then we are going to have four more years of Trump.

And again, you have not even made such a claim until now. So you are either shifting your argument to something else now or you are not conveying what you mean very well.

As a counterpoint to THIS argument you are making, though, the voters might also have learned something from 2016. So perhaps they will vote for Biden, even if they wanted Bernie, because, you know, 2016? I see a lot of people stating their preference but then follow it with their willingness. If you have something other than gut feeling or anecdote to suggest Bernie voters will stay home, I'm all ears.

 

[Tinwhistler]

Looks like Biden's gonna get Virginia. With 80% reporting, Sanders would need to win almost every remaining uncounted vote. Doesn't look likely.

But Virginia's a proportional state, so Sanders will pick up a number of delegates. But not a ton. Maybe 15-20.

So far, Warren and Bloomberg are doing so poorly in the state that they'll get no delegates at all.

 

[Dave]

Well, it looks like Bernie won Vermont.

—Patrick

But not much else. Biden is strong in the south. Where Trump was strong. Why is it that there are smart PEOPLE in the south individually, but as a whole they are the most backwards-assed idiots around?

 

[ScytheRexx]

And again, you have not even made such a claim until now. So you are either shifting your argument to something else now or you are not conveying what you mean very well.

I am taking care of my son who is sick with the flu during a coronavirus scare a big city over from me. I am not going to be able to convey every nuance of the discussion, but let me bullet it down for you.

Bernie and Trump are harbingers of a large shift in politics. A shift isn't a black and white, one way one minute, another the next type of thing. It's slow and deliberate and reaches a tipping point. When Trump went up he was also polarizing. Republicans basically called him a grifter and a cheat. He still won, and once he did most of those same Republicans turned quickly to his side. Why? Because they saw the writing on the wall. The shift to what we now call the party of Trump. It's better to have a grifter in the seat when the "important thing" is getting 100% of your side to the voting booths.

Bernie is the other side of this coin, he has become the face of a large subset of democratic voters that lean more now towards progressive ideals, a sort of "nega-trump". The base that has started to develop around him, much like the base that developed around Trump, are less forgiving and more likely to peace out should the party not align with their ultimate goals. A democrat in the middle will still likely vote democrat. A progressive entrenched in ideals is not likely to bother changing what they consider "idiot A" for "loser B".

When I call him gaining popularity, I simply mean this far left ideal is growing more and more each year. From the strategy stand point, you are going to need them at the polls. Trump won and Hillary lost because a lot of democrat voters stayed home, while Republicans sucked it up and voted for Trump because they didn't want to lose to a democrat. I believe, should history repeat itself, we are going to have that again this year. Bernie may not be the most popular, but strategy wise, the democrats need his progressive voters on board in key areas.

If I was an uber-delegate and could pick my own canidate, I would pick Elizabeth Warren because she feels like a mix between each ideal and I think would do a good job with it while not turning the government entirely upside down, but I don't get that choice because the rest of the democrats have decided she isn't viable over two old white guys, and from a strategy standpoint I fear Biden is going to lose. I hope I am wrong should he get the nomination.

 

[ScytheRexx]

Back on topic here but the big states to win are Texas and California. The other states are important, but Texas and California hold half the Super Tuesday delegates just by themselves.

As someone that lived a huge chunk of my life in both states, the democrats that live in both areas usually lean more on the progressive side of things.

I know California is likely going to sweep for Bernie with some Warren votes, while Texas will be a lot closer, which was one reason Biden really wanted that Beto nomination. It remains to be seen if it worked for him. Most of the democrats I spoke with since yesterday actually have told me the endorcement brought down their opinion of Beto rather then raised the opinion of Biden, but I don't live near El Paso, where it's likely the endorsement will do the most good.

 

[Dei]

TBH, Internet Bernie Bros are every bit as toxic as Trumpers, and it's a huge turn-off.

 

[PatrThom]

TBH, Internet Bernie Bros are every bit as toxic as Trumpers, and it's a huge turn-off.

Who was it that said, “Jesus was okay, it’s his fan club I can’t stand?”

Also I know the presidency is important and all, but don’t forget there are lots of other positions that need overturning as well I’M LOOKING AT YOU, KY.

—Patrick

 

[ScytheRexx]

TBH, Internet Bernie Bros are every bit as toxic as Trumpers, and it's a huge turn-off.

But is it such a turn off that you would allow Trump another four years in office, should Bernie get the nomination?

I try to look at each canidate in a vacuum. You base it on their supporters too and you are going to have some great people and some absolutely atrocious assholes. Biden and even Warren are not immune from this. Bernie just has the most idealistically "radical", thus you see them more, much like Trumpers compared to moderate Republicans.

 

[MindDetective]

With a lot of results still to go, it looks like Bernie is slightly underperforming and Biden is overperforming against 538's predicted outcomes.