Desktops Obsolete in 3 Years

[ThatNickGuy]

http://ca.tech.yahoo.com/blogs/the_working_guy/rss/article/4379

I'm not sure if I buy this, entirely, but it's somewhat reasonable. I mean, the phones we can get now are greatly more powerful than the clunky, noisy machines that I used to own. Hell, my laptop is probably about 1,000 times more powerful than my first computer (if not likely more). Sony even announced recently that they're working on a PSP-style of cell phone that has just as great gaming capability.

But for the iPhone or smart phones to replace computers altogether? I don't see it happening. I can't imagine writing a story, chatting, doing homework, etc, on a phone. Maybe I'm just old fashioned. I like using a phone for communicating and that's it. It took me some time just to accept texting.

Still, as a gradually aging old-foggey, I look at how technology has made huge leaps and bounds and I'm still astounded at some of the things we can do, today.

 

[makare]

What the hell no... no way is a phone going to replace my 24 inch screen. I love it so

 

[sixpackshaker]

I can just imagine managing my inventory spread sheets at work on a 4 inch screen.

 

[Rob King]

In three years, I hope my mobile device is something roughly akin to an iPad that is capable of making and taking phone calls, and functions as a full computer.

 

[Espy]

imagine having an iphone or something that when you sit at your desk you plug into your 40 inch screen and it has the power of my Mac Pro here today. That I can get behind.

 

[Bowielee]

Laptops still won't beat PCs when it comes to gaming, for the most part. If all I used my PC for was surfing the net, working on MS Office and the occasional game of Peggle, or WoW, then I wouldn't need it. But the most advanced graphics cards always come out for the PC and suck too much juice for the average laptop.

 

[Rob King]

Absolutely.

As it stands, I think manufacturers will want two separate devices so they can sell two complete computers, and then a cloud service, as opposed to one wicked-awesome device, which is able to plug into your beautiful monitor, and bypass the need for any real-estate on the cloud.

 

[Espy]

Well, I agree that it is in the best interest for them to sell you multiple things. So if your monitor had the extra ram and HD space and you plugged your phone into it then bam, they just sold you a desktop and a portable and its convenient for you. The cloud thing still has a looooooong way to go before people and business are going to start really trusting it and I think some never will.

 

[Math242]

i had the same gut reaction than Makare

 

[bhamv3]

The article is written from the perspective of Internet use, isn't it? So for surfing, email, etc, I could easily see mobile devices replacing desktops as the platform of choice.

For work, gaming and artistic uses, though, I can't see mobile devices ever winning out. Heck, one of the reasons people love PCs is because they're highly customizable; you can pick and choose what motherboards, processors, graphics cards etc to use. Can't do that on an iPhone.

 

[Chazwozel]

imagine having an iphone or something that when you sit at your desk you plug into your 40 inch screen and it has the power of my Mac Pro here today. That I can get behind.

Word. Bluetooth key board and mouse and you're all set. I can see this, not in three years, but eventually. In like 10 to 15 years I can see everyone having to carry around a computer with themselves. In like 100 years, those computers will probably be integrated someone how into our bodies. CYBORGS!

---------- Post added at 06:43 AM ---------- Previous post was at 06:42 AM ----------

The article is written from the perspective of Internet use, isn't it? So for surfing, email, etc, I could easily see mobile devices replacing desktops as the platform of choice.

For work, gaming and artistic uses, though, I can't see mobile devices ever winning out. Heck, one of the reasons people love PCs is because they're highly customizable; you can pick and choose what motherboards, processors, graphics cards etc to use. Can't do that on an iPhone.

Sorry to break it to your but most of the world doesn't exclusively use PC's for gaming.

 

[bhamv3]

Sorry to break it to your but most of the world doesn't exclusively use PC's for gaming.

Yes, that is true.

So?

 

[MindDetective]

I'm with the shark and the baby on this one. The future will be pocket computers that dock into your system at work and home.

 

[fade]

Yeah, I may have to agree with google on this one. I kind of got the impression, though, that they were talking about consumer computers, not workplace computers.

 

[Seraphyn]

That is the future of computing if you ask me.

 

[SpecialKO]

If we're talking about the consumer market, I agree with Google on this one. Desktop PCs for the average consumer only have one current advantage over mobile devices of comparable capabilities, which is price, and that's really disappearing as both mobile technology catches up and consumer tastes change.

It used to be that home docking stations for laptops were fairly rare, since the good ones were $$$, and the bad ones were crappy USB hubs. But so many devices are network accessible now that I feel like we're very close to having the family raid enclosure replace the family PC. Not for a few years, certainly, but closer and closer.

 

[makare]

I love my desktop because the keyboard isnt attached to the screen and it isnt one unit. I have a laptop and it is great for school but other than that it is pretty meh for me.

 

[@Li3n]

I love my desktop because the keyboard isnt attached to the screen and it isnt one unit. I have a laptop and it is great for school but other than that it is pretty meh for me.

So true...

BTW, i remember hearing that netbooks are the ones in trouble... and desktops have always been about way more then surfing the web or playing games... why do you think people in 3rd world countries have PC's to pirate on?! Because it's a useful tool that can help you make money... unless handheld devices actually become powerful enough to do everything while connected to a 24" screen they won't get replaced, and if that happens they'll be PC's in a smaller case.

Still, a dedicated card (video, audio etc) would still be more efficient even at low prices, so i doubt this will happen.

 

[Shegokigo]

No. :humph:

 

[Frank]

It doesn't matter how neat computers get in the next 20 years. I'll still be using intranet software written in the fucking mid 90's that still takes hours to get me the information I request. I hate the government.

 

[PatrThom]

No. :humph:

Amen. When handhelds and portables have the power of today's desktops, there will still be a subset of users (hobbyists, gamers, armchair scientists, college students) who will want the amount of power that can be squeezed into the volume of an ATX case. If my laptop had a quad-core dual-gpu with a pair of SSDs in a RAID 0 and can still get 6-8hrs of battery life, that means tech will have advanced to the point that my desktop could probably have 2 x 8-core cpus each with its own on-board 2GB RAM and built-in GPU running 16-way SLI/XFire. And that would be something I would happily wait for by the mailbox about 30 seconds after clicking 'Confirm' on NewEgg's order page. And that'd just be the boards with integrated graphics!

--Patrick
PS - Welcome back, Verdant Vixen.

 

[Espy]

I don't really think it's as simple as yes or no, I think it's a matter of evolution. Computer will get smaller and more convenient, even the most powerful ones. Sure super nerds will still want their giant case with all their neon lights and blahblahblah, but for most users, even gamers, smaller computers will be more than enough for what they need and as long they can plug into a giant monitor, then who cares?

 

[MindDetective]

Once upon a time, cars were a hobby. Obviously they still are to some people but it isn't the phenomenon it once was. They became highly engineered, convenient tools for the average person. Cars are still cool, but most people drive a sedan, coupe, van, SUV, or pickup. They don't drive the sports cars or worry about getting as much power as they can out of their vehicle. That's what is next for computers. Sure, ultra powerful desktops will still be around and there will be a sizable group that uses them but they won't be the norm, I think, as computers turn into an every day convenience, streamlined for everyman. Most people won't need the desktop anymore and they might see the option to buy it but will instead decide to not waste their money.

 

[@Li3n]

Once upon a time, cars were a hobby.

If by hobby you mean they had to be made on at a time because there wasn't any such thing as an assembly line, then yeah...

And the average consumer already buys pre-assembled PC's.

 

[Rob King]

Once upon a time, cars were a hobby. Obviously they still are to some people but it isn't the phenomenon it once was. They became highly engineered, convenient tools for the average person. Cars are still cool, but most people drive a sedan, coupe, van, SUV, or pickup. They don't drive the sports cars or worry about getting as much power as they can out of their vehicle. That's what is next for computers. Sure, ultra powerful desktops will still be around and there will be a sizable group that uses them but they won't be the norm, I think, as computers turn into an every day convenience, streamlined for everyman. Most people won't need the desktop anymore and they might see the option to buy it but will instead decide to not waste their money.

I think the nail is in a coma, you hit it so hard on the head.

 

[@Li3n]

Except that that's already the case, gaming rigs being only a small % of the number of PC's out there...

 

[Espy]

Except that that's already the case, gaming rigs being only a small % of the number of PC's out there...

Which only furthers the point that we are already well on the path to smaller computers, etc.

 

[@Li3n]

Except that that's been the case ever since at least teh 90's... this being more like switching to electric cars or something...

 

[Rob King]

Not a good analog.

Gas cars -> Electric cars

is a bigger transition than

10 lb computer + cellphone -> 4 lb computer + cellphone -> 4 lb computer + smartphone -> .5 lb all-in-one-device -> whatever the future dreams up

 

[@Li3n]

Not a good analog.

Gas cars -> Electric cars

is a bigger transition than

10 lb computer + cellphone -> 4 lb computer + cellphone -> 4 lb computer + smartphone -> .5 lb all-in-one-device -> whatever the future dreams up

I don't know, all-in-one-device seems about as big as simply changing what amounts to the type of baterry in your car...

 

[Rob King]

Not a good analog.

Gas cars -> Electric cars

is a bigger transition than

10 lb computer + cellphone -> 4 lb computer + cellphone -> 4 lb computer + smartphone -> .5 lb all-in-one-device -> whatever the future dreams up

I don't know, all-in-one-device seems about as big as simply changing what amounts to the type of baterry in your car...[/QUOTE]

One of us doesn't understand electric cars, and I think it might be me.

 

[@Li3n]

It's a car that uses an electric battery (i don't think they have generators yet) instead of burning gas. I'm pretty sure gas cars today use electricity to make most car function work, so they're not that different.

Although i guess i should have said hybrids...

 

[Rob King]

Ok, so ... I do understand, apparently. But I would have defined a gas engine powering your car, vs. having an electric motor power your car as a big difference, even IF the stereo, headlights, power locks, etc on both make use of electricity.

But this is a bit far from the point by now anyhow.

 

[@Li3n]

Actually i'm pretty sure modern cars are fly-by-wire or whatever you call it. And also, there's no reason why you couldn't have a mechanical system with an electrical motor... the only thing truly revolutionary would be an electrical motor that is efficient enough.

A small device with integrated parts that can do anything your desktop can sounds about the same to me.

 

[SpecialKO]

I think it's less what the exact capabilities of specs are, and more capability of fulfilling the need while providing additional benefits.

And I believe that applies to both PCs and cars.