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North Korea test nukes

#1

strawman

strawman

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/25/w...s-nuclear-test-as-threats-intensify.html?_r=0

North Korea launched a rocket last year which put a satellite in orbit. Analysis of the rocket debris suggests that the rocket is capable of over 6,000 mile journeys, putting LA within distance of a North Korean missile attack.

In response, the UN, including both China and Russia, condemned this missile test, and tightened sanctions which allow greater access to search cargo destined for North Korea.

In response to those sanctions:

In a statement issued through state-run media, the National Defense Commission, the North’s highest governing agency, headed by Mr. Kim, said that “a variety of satellites and long-range rockets which will be launched by the D.P.R.K. one after another and a nuclear test of higher level which will be carried out by it” will be “targeted” at “the U.S., the sworn enemy of the Korean people.”
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It is currently supposed that the nuclear package technology North Korea currently has is too large for missile deployment, but the advanced technology found in the rocket debris surprised some analysts. So while it's possible they cannot yet launch a nuclear warhead, there is no certainty to that statement.

This comes at a time when significant leadership changes are occurring in the region, including South Korea, China, and Japan.


#2

sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker

I wonder if the test fizzled like it did the last time around.


#3

SpecialKO

SpecialKO

Well, that's just fucking great. The new boss is apparently just as crazy as the old boss.


#4

Gilgamesh

Gilgamesh

It's just a big misunderstanding:

images.jpg


#5

Charlie Don't Surf

Charlie Don't Surf

cool, more war.














NOT </Borat voice>


#6

GasBandit

GasBandit

SpecialKO said:
Well, that's just fucking great. The new boss is apparently just as crazy as the old boss.
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Was there ever any doubt? It's like the hapsburgs got put in charge of Latveria.


#7

SpecialKO

SpecialKO

@Charlie:


#8

Hylian

Hylian



#9

SpecialKO

SpecialKO

GasBandit said:
Was there ever any doubt? It's like the hapsburgs got put in charge of Latveria.
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I have to admit, I was hoping the Western education would calm him down a bit and keep him sticking to turning NK media into an even more ridiculous imitation of a Hollywood studio.


#10

GasBandit

GasBandit

SpecialKO said:
I have to admit, I was hoping the Western education would calm him down a bit and keep him sticking to turning NK media into an even more ridiculous imitation of a Hollywood studio.
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Really, I think he's more of a sock puppet figurehead. Pretty sure the generals are running the show there.


#11

Charlie Don't Surf

Charlie Don't Surf

SpecialKO said:
@Charlie:
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Tumblr's blocked at work


#12

SpecialKO

SpecialKO

GasBandit said:
Really, I think he's more of a sock puppet figurehead. Pretty sure the generals are running the show there.
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You're likely right, unfortunately.

Charlie Don't Surf said:
Tumblr's blocked at work
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Eh, no biggie. Wayne's World pic.


#13

Hylian

Hylian



#14

Zappit

Zappit

Somehow I don't see China in favor of a nuclear nuthouse in their backyard.


#15

Silent Bob

Silent Bob

stienman said:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/25/w...s-nuclear-test-as-threats-intensify.html?_r=0

North Korea launched a rocket last year which put a satellite in orbit. Analysis of the rocket debris suggests that the rocket is capable of over 6,000 mile journeys, putting LA within distance of a North Korean missile attack.

In response, the UN, including both China and Russia, condemned this missile test, and tightened sanctions which allow greater access to search cargo destined for North Korea.

In response to those sanctions:



It is currently supposed that the nuclear package technology North Korea currently has is too large for missile deployment, but the advanced technology found in the rocket debris surprised some analysts. So while it's possible they cannot yet launch a nuclear warhead, there is no certainty to that statement.

This comes at a time when significant leadership changes are occurring in the region, including South Korea, China, and Japan.
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Thing about nuclear warheads, is you have to be able to make them...


#16

Gilgamesh

Gilgamesh

Silent Bob said:
Thing about nuclear warheads, is you have to be able to make them...
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I think I just figured out how to get the US out of debt! ;)


#17

bhamv3

bhamv3

Gilgamesh said:
I think I just figured out how to get the US out of debt! ;)
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"We have too many nuclear warheads, and not enough money. So let's sell some nukes to non-nuclear rich countries. Let's see... oh hey, South Korea's economy is doing quite well, let's give them a few nukes. That shouldn't cause any problems, right?"


#18

Gilgamesh

Gilgamesh

bhamv3 said:
"We have too many nuclear warheads, and not enough money. So let's sell some nukes to non-nuclear rich countries. Let's see... oh hey, South Korea's economy is doing quite well, let's give them a few nukes. That shouldn't cause any problems, right?"
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Exactly! Problem solved!


#19

bhamv3

bhamv3

Gilgamesh said:
Exactly! Problem solved!
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You have my vote, President Gilgamesh!


#20

Yoshimickster

Yoshimickster

So basically, North Korea is potentially dangerous. No news there.


#21

ThatNickGuy

ThatNickGuy

The little boy is following in his dad's footsteps, I see.


#22

Gilgamesh

Gilgamesh

Found:
Picture of Kim Jung Un launching the first missile.
cM1VN.jpg


#23

strawman

strawman

That's photoshopped. They obviously can't afford that technology yet.


#24

Hailey Knight

Hailey Knight

I love the article quote. It sounds like a whiny child:

"You don't like missiles? Well I'm gonna launch a billion gazillion more and the last one's going to be nuclear and it'll be aimed at your poopie-head, you meanie!"


#25

Zappit

Zappit



#26

Hailey Knight

Hailey Knight

Zappit said:
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what-are-you-looking-at.jpg


#27

Timmus

Timmus

as good a place as any for this....



#28

bhamv3

bhamv3

Man, North Korea really is Awesome Korea. Their supermarket and hotpot restaurant openings are accompanied by patriotic music and visits by dignitaries. You don't see that in America, do you? Filthy capitalists!


#29

Chad Sexington

Chad Sexington

How does that country exist.


#30

strawman

strawman

Man, I so want to see Obama attend a Walmart grand opening.


#31

Timmus

Timmus

It makes me laugh but also makes me really sad.


#32

LordRendar

LordRendar

I bet all the members of the UN snicker when N.Korea walks into the room.


#33

Espy

Espy

Their military guys should probably have bigger hats. I mean, if you are going to go the cartoon villain route go all the way or go home.


#34

SpecialKO

SpecialKO

The North Korea burn was the best part of the new GI Joe trailer (at 0:30).



#35

AshburnerX

AshburnerX

I like how the Korean delegate is like "What the fuck man!?"


#36

Gared

Gared

And we now have reports from both North and South Korea that NK has successfully completed its 3rd underground nuclear test.


#37

TommiR

TommiR

So it would seem.

Some sceptics are calling this one a fake or a failure, though, with yields measuring 6-7kt when the smallest design they were (alledgedly) sold was 12kt. We'll have to wait and see. Regardless, if the North Koreans kept at it, they were/are bound to get it right eventually.


#38

AshburnerX

AshburnerX

I'm wondering where they are getting the fissionable material. No respectable country would want or allow them to go nuclear, people in the Middle East would want it for themselves and not to sell, and it's not widely available enough for some of it to just go missing. So where would they get the materials to make one?

And how would they fake it? Detonating normal ordnance? That would be pretty expensive for a normal bluff.


#39

TommiR

TommiR

AshburnerX said:
I'm wondering where they are getting the fissionable material. No respectable country would want or allow them to go nuclear, people in the Middle East would want it for themselves and not to sell, and it's not widely available enough for some of it to just go missing. So where would they get the materials to make one?
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They have an indigenous supply. The process and equipment (gas centrifuges) is dual use, and can be used to produce civilian nuclear fuel or weapons grade materials. Hence non-proliferation efforts tend to target this enrichment capacity. That's what the hubbub was about with iranian nuclear refining capabilities, with the iranians claiming it was for peaceful purposes. North Korea has high quality uranium and graphite deposits, and have been building up their own enrichment capacity.

On the basis of geological surveys conducted by the Soviet Union, North Korea began large-scale uranium mining operations at various locations near Sunchon and Pyongsan in the late 1970s or early 1980s. The raw uranium-bearing ore was shipped to uranium milling factories at Pakchon and Pyongsan, where it was crushed and chemically processed to produce U3O8 or ‘yellow cake’, which was then transported to the Yongbyon nuclear centre for further processing and fabrication into nuclear reactor fuel. Typically, one tonne of North Korean uranium ore contains about one kilogram of uranium, meaning that some 50,000 tonnes of ore had to be mined and processed in order to obtain the 50 tonnes of natural uranium needed for the initial fuel load for the 5MW(e) reactor. It has been estimated that, at its peak in the early 1990s, North Korea was able to produce about 300 tonnes of yellow cake annually, equal to approximately 30,000 tonnes of uranium ore. Actual production of yellow cake in the decade before the nuclear freeze is unknown. North Korea’s current mining and milling capacity is also unknown, but it appears unlikely that yellow cake production is a significant constraint on its immediate nuclear requirements.
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The current estimate is that NK has enough Plutonium for about a dozen warheads, but could get a lot more of it (with considerable technological risks) if the experimental light water reactor at the Yongbyon nuclear complex, supposedly used for civilian nuclear power purposes, was paired with their gas centrifuge cascades and dedicated to produce weapons-grade Plutonium instead. The other option for them would be to go the high-enriched (weapons grade) Uranium route instead, with some speculation that they may have switched their nuclear weapons program towards it. They have one centrifuge plant at Yongbyon, with indications that there may be another one someplace else.

http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/dprk_fissile_material_production_16Aug2012.pdf

Currently, North Korea’s plutonium inventory appears capped, with enough for 6-18 nuclear weapons and a midpoint of 12 nuclear weapons. It could add marginally to this number if it restarted its 5 megawatt-electric (MWe) reactor at Yongbyon.

...

This report evaluates three cases of future production of WGU and weapon-grade plutonium and projecting central estimates of the number of nuclear weapons that North Korea could produce over the next five years, until the end of 2016. In this period, the number of centrifuges operational is projected to also increase, at a rate of 1,000 P2 centrifuges a year starting in 2014 at each centrifuge plant considered in specific scenarios. As expected, all of these projections, which are shown in table 5 in the report, show an increase in North Korea’s nuclear weapons arsenal.

...

Like Iran, North Korea remains dependent on foreign supply for its centrifuge program and its procurements for this program are on going. Delaying progress in North Korea’s program hinges on interrupting its successful smuggling networks, many of which have successfully infiltrated Chinese markets to acquire a range of dual-use items necessary for its centrifuge program from both Chinese private companies and high-tech foreign suppliers.
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AshburnerX said:
And how would they fake it? Detonating normal ordnance? That would be pretty expensive for a normal bluff.
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Regarding using conventional explosives to fake this test, the costs of doing so would not be very extensive. 6 million kilograms of TNT-equivalent costs about the same as a single fighter jet (according to quick googling). If they had decided to bluff the world into thinking they had nuclear weapons, it would not have been the expense of the conventional explosives that held them back from doing so.


#40

Timmus

Timmus

It's all a huge misunderstanding.
cake.gif


#41

strawman

strawman

While the rhetoric has been ratcheting up, many commentators were saying that it's not too bad, as one of the key indicators they pay attention to suggests the north are still operating business as usual. This indicator is whether the Kaesong Industrial Park is open.

The Kaesong Industrail Park is located in North Korea just on the border with South Korea, and allows South Korean companies to hire cheap North Korean labor at the complex. This provides significant income to the North Korean government and economy, and its believed that the North will never close it and live without that income unless they are serious about cutting ties with the south.

Today the border stopped allowing South Korean workers, managers, and supply trucks through the border destined for that industrial complex. They have not kicked South Koreans currently at the complex out, but they are allowing them to leave back to South Korea if they choose.

For a lot of pundits this was the only thing keeping them from saying that North Korea is acting any differently than it has every year it's performed the usual saber rattling.

The last time the border was shut down was in 2009, and lasted 24 hours. Pundits are suggesting that we wait a day or two before adding too much into this, expecting it will open back up.

If it doesn't, and the North really is closing its borders in a way that hurts them financially and economically, expect to see another significant step up in the believed seriousness of the situation.[DOUBLEPOST=1364999305][/DOUBLEPOST]Note, however, that in the past usually the north ratchets up the propaganda, performs a few shows of defiance, then "reluctantly" comes to the table and asks for and receives food or other aid in exchange for a few minor concessions, like shutting down the nuclear plant. Again.

Even though both sides are readying for possible military action, most people still expect the same outcome.

That said, should the North lose their mind, they are capable of decimating Seoul using conventional weapons in a matter of minutes, so their threats are not idle.


#42

sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker

Yep, 14,000 pre-aimed pieces of artillery. They could really decimate South Korea for several days before we could silence those guns.


#43

Terrik

Terrik

sixpackshaker said:
Yep, 14,000 pre-aimed pieces of artillery. They could really decimate South Korea for several days before we could silence those guns.
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Eh....more likes hours instead of days.


#44

bhamv3

bhamv3

I've always found it interesting that Seoul is basically right next to the border between North and South Korea, well within range of anything the North would want to do to them.


#45

strawman

strawman

We have enough force in South Korea and in Japan that it wouldn't take long to silence most of the ground based stations, and chances are good that our intelligences is decent enough that we already have weaponry aimed at most of the installations such that it would take minutes to stop the majority of the attack, long before we had aircraft in the air identifying and clearing out additional installations we weren't aware of, or didn't consider a big enough threat to keep targeted.

Still, it would be an incredibly stupid move on North Korea's part to attempt such an attack. It would essentially be a free pass for the US and UN to come in and destroy their infrastructure and military capability. I think they understand that they have really been testing China's patience, and China isn't liable to keep backing them up and supporting them.


#46

Gilgamesh

Gilgamesh

I wonder if in our lifetime we'll see the downfall of the North Korean dictatorship.


#47

AshburnerX

AshburnerX

Gilgamesh said:
I wonder if in our lifetime we'll see the downfall of the North Korean dictatorship.
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Probably. It's really going to depend on how long the Generals are willing to put up with a 30 year old running the country.


#48

strawman

strawman

The border is still closed, Thursday morning, and North Korea's threats against the US base in Guam has caused the US to install a missile defense system there earlier than originally scheduled.


#49

AshburnerX

AshburnerX

stienman said:
The border is still closed, Thursday morning, and North Korea's threats against the US base in Guam has caused the US to install a missile defense system there earlier than originally scheduled.
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Honestly, they are just hurting themselves. However, what I want to see is China's next move. If they keep giving North Korea food then nothing we do matters and business will be as usual. However, if they put their foot down and stop their shipments then North Korea will need to put up or shut up.


#50

Cheesy1

Cheesy1

"And that's how Anonymous started World War III":

Anonymous hacks into two of North Korea's government-run websites


#51

SpecialKO

SpecialKO

Cheesy1 said:
"And that's how Anonymous started World War III":

Anonymous hacks into two of North Korea's government-run websites
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...how does that EVER seem like a good idea?


#52

PatrThom

PatrThom

Anonymous does have a history of rather...questionable behavior.

--Patrick


#53

Gilgamesh

Gilgamesh

What hidden thing are they going to uncover? That their dictator is evil/psycho and the people are starving? -gasp-


#54

blotsfan

blotsfan

What if they discover that its actually a utopia like they claim it is?


#55

Gilgamesh

Gilgamesh

Oh lord, I laughed way too hard as I watched this over and over for way too long:
tumblr_mkm2lfniKe1s5yls4o1_250.gif


#56

CrimsonSoul

CrimsonSoul

Gilgamesh said:
Oh lord, I laughed way too hard as I watched this over and over for way too long:
View attachment 10648
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Yeah that's effing awesome


#57

strawman

strawman

I like how the bush administration had concrete evidence that North Korea possessed weapons grade plutonium, compared to the relatively poor evidence that Iraq possessed significant weapons of mass destruction, and chose to attack Iraq rather than North Korea.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/2004-01-21-nkorea-nukes_x.htm

Now we could be doing a diplomatic dance again. North Korea is up in the is polls, and over forty percent of polled Americans believe they pose a significant immediate threat to the US. North Korea has spent years trying to get the US to the negotiating table directly, whereas the US has always insisted on a multilateral approach.

This is the closest they've come to the line, and the closest they've come to getting enough of our attention that we might actually sit down with them directly to negotiate.

So far things seem to be working according to their desires.


#58

GasBandit

GasBandit

stienman said:
I like how the bush administration had concrete evidence that North Korea possessed weapons grade plutonium, compared to the relatively poor evidence that Iraq possessed significant weapons of mass destruction, and chose to attack Iraq rather than North Korea.
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Iraq wasn't a client state of China. If we invaded north korea, it stood an excellent chance of igniting world war 3.

And of course we knew they had nuclear capabilities - Bill Clinton gave it to them.


Now we could be doing a diplomatic dance again. North Korea is up in the is polls, and over forty percent of polled Americans believe they pose a significant immediate threat to the US. North Korea has spent years trying to get the US to the negotiating table directly, whereas the US has always insisted on a multilateral approach.
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That is, the US was not interested in pandering to north korea as if they were an equal. We wanted talks that involved all the nations involved (usually 6 way talks with china, south korea, russia and japan), to make it crystal clear that north korea is not our equal, and there are other people in the area rather put out with them.

This time might be different as there are signs that even china is getting sick and tired of NORK's shit.


#59

TommiR

TommiR

stienman said:
We have enough force in South Korea and in Japan that it wouldn't take long to silence most of the ground based stations, and chances are good that our intelligences is decent enough that we already have weaponry aimed at most of the installations such that it would take minutes to stop the majority of the attack, long before we had aircraft in the air identifying and clearing out additional installations we weren't aware of, or didn't consider a big enough threat to keep targeted.
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I think sixpackshaker may have the right of it. The problem is the sheer number of DPRK artillery pieces and the fact that they've had all the time in the world to entrench. Taking out the majority of DPRK positions is difficult without heavy ordnance, and for ROK and USA to silence a significant number of them within minutes sounds optimistic in the extreme, as the requisite quantities of ordnance and delivery methods do not exist. Many of the DPRK artillery positions can potentially be suppressed by counterbattery fire from lighter assets which are available in greater numbers, but the suppression fire would need to be determined and continuous, as barring a lucky direct hit (which might silence one gun) the position will spring back to life within minutes after the shelling lifts. Again, the problem is the number of DPRK artillery.

If this comes down to a fight, then I guess Seoul and the South's industrial areas near the border will receive heavy shelling until ROK ground forces get past the DMZ and push DPRK artillery units out of range. This may take a couple of days. After that it will be open season for ROK and USA, as though there are a couple of fortified areas where the fighting is likely to get heavy, the DPRK rear area seems to be geared towards pushing troops and suppies forward in an attack, rather than a defensive arrangement designed to delay an advancing enemy.

Still, it would be an incredibly stupid move on North Korea's part to attempt such an attack. It would essentially be a free pass for the US and UN to come in and destroy their infrastructure and military capability. I think they understand that they have really been testing China's patience, and China isn't liable to keep backing them up and supporting them.
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I'm not sure North Korea is going to attack, regardless of their belligerent rehtoric. They can't win, and they know it. I think this affair will be diffused in due course, as nobody, not South Korea, nor China, and certainly not the US will want to be saddled with the financial cost of feeding 25 million North Korean beggars and uplifting a country with a dirt-poor economy and infrastructure.

GasBandit said:
Iraq wasn't a client state of China. If we invaded north korea, it stood an excellent chance of igniting world war 3.
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I'm not sure things would have gotten quite that far. Though there was (and still is) a risk that without a chinese okay on the matter, US aerial operations close to the chinese border might receive some fire from chinese air defences, or a general blue-on-blue incident. And that would have too much risk involved.

That is, the US was not interested in pandering to north korea as if they were an equal. We wanted talks that involved all the nations involved (usually 6 way talks with china, south korea, russia and japan), to make it crystal clear that north korea is not our equal, and there are other people in the area rather put out with them.

This time might be different as there are signs that even china is getting sick and tired of NORK's shit.
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I think bilateral negotiations would very likely be in North Korean interests, though many of the reasons for that may be geopolitic. DPRK borders both China and Russia, and major powers generally don't like other major powers messing around in their neighbourhood unless they have a say in the matter to make sure their own interests are not compromised. For any arrangement regarding North Korea to work, particularly China will need to want it to work. Otherwise the arrangement won't be worth much more than the paper it's written on, as then DPRK will always have a back door, should they decide that holding up their end of the bargain with the USA is no longer convenient.


#60

Necronic

Necronic

Cheesy1 said:
"And that's how Anonymous started World War III":

Anonymous hacks into two of North Korea's government-run websites
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The greatest trick anonymous ever pulled was convincing the world that they are elite hackers. Taking down a website is the burning-bag-of-dogpoop-on-the-front-door of hacking.

Ed: LulzSec on the other hand...


#61

Chad Sexington

Chad Sexington

Necronic said:
The greatest trick anonymous ever pulled was convincing the world that they are elite hackers. Taking down a website is the burning-bag-of-dogpoop-on-the-front-door of hacking.
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I try to be a patient person, but I have zero patience for the hero-worship or ridiculous fear Anonymous elicits from certain people. I just sigh in exasperation, unwilling even to explain.


#62

CrimsonSoul

CrimsonSoul

Chad Sexington said:
I try to be a patient person, but I have zero patience for the hero-worship or ridiculous fear Anonymous elicits from certain people. I just sigh in exasperation, unwilling even to explain.
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I should probably stop hero worshiping his holy sexieness Chad "the hammer is my penis" Sexington

Also my phone tries to auto fill GasBandit after I say penis and that sounds dirty


#63

Chad Sexington

Chad Sexington

CrimsonSoul said:
I should probably stop hero worshiping his holy sexieness Chad "the hammer is my penis" Sexington
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Wait, what, no. NO! CONTINUE TO WORSHIP


#64

GasBandit

GasBandit

Your phone knows who's got the hammer.


#65

Gilgamesh

Gilgamesh

Necronic said:
The greatest trick anonymous ever pulled was convincing the world that they are elite hackers. Taking down a website is the burning-bag-of-dogpoop-on-the-front-door of hacking.

Ed: LulzSec on the other hand...
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You realize that LulzSec is just an offshoot of Anon who decided to label themselves correct?


#66

Necronic

Necronic

Yeah I know. But in fairness I think that most hacker collectives have ties to Anon.


#67

Covar

Covar

Necronic said:
Yeah I know. But in fairness I think that most hacker collectives have ties to Anon.
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statements like ties to Anon are why pretty much every thread talking about Anon is dumb as hell.


#68

Shawn

Shawn

Has North Korea actually said "I'm coming for you, USA" or is this just the equivalent of them scooting their high-chair up to the adults table and announcing "I want to be HERE".


#69

Necronic

Necronic

Covar said:
statements like ties to Anon are why pretty much every thread talking about Anon is dumb as hell.
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It's more clear to say "Ties to Anon" than "Posts on 4Chan"


#70

Gilgamesh

Gilgamesh

Shawnacy said:
Has North Korea actually said "I'm coming for you, USA" or is this just the equivalent of them scooting their high-chair up to the adults table and announcing "I want to be HERE".
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Yes they have:
http://us.cnn.com/2013/03/26/world/asia/north-korea-us-threats/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/28/world/asia/north-korea-us-threats/index.html


#71

Eriol

Eriol

Shawnacy said:
Has North Korea actually said "I'm coming for you, USA" or is this just the equivalent of them scooting their high-chair up to the adults table and announcing "I want to be HERE".
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Hopefully without derailing the thread, the problem with your analogy is that somebody stupid gave the kid in a high chair a gun (nukes). Everybody else at the table may be responsible owners. The child isn't.


#72

Shawn

Shawn

Eriol said:
Hopefully without derailing the thread, the problem with your analogy is that somebody stupid gave the kid in a high chair a gun (nukes). Everybody else at the table may be responsible owners. The child isn't.
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As far as we can tell doesn't the kid have a stack of blocks in the shape of a nuke?
I'm not pretending I know anything at all about what's going on. Current Events are not really my thing. But it seems like the lack of concern this issue has caused leads me to suspect that N. Korea is trying to bluff themselves out of the corner they've dug themselves into. They may have nukes, as I'm aware they went to great extent trying to figure it out, but every test or missile firing test that we are aware of have had disappointing results.


#73

GasBandit

GasBandit

Conventional wisdom has said that if a Nork nuke went off at the top of the empire state building, central park would be spared any damage. But I don't know if that's true or not.


#74

Shawn

Shawn

PFFTT. If N. Korea wanted to fire a nuke at us I'm assuming Los Angeles would be his most likely target.


#75

Chad Sexington

Chad Sexington

North Korea can't nuke the US, but plenty of US allies are within firing range. Japan. S Korea, obv.


#76

Azurephoenix

Azurephoenix

I believe North Korea can make crude nukes (by today's standards) but are lacking in long range delivery and miniturization (making said bombs small enough to actually fit on a missile but still be useful).


#77

strawman

strawman

We know they are capable of detonating a bomb which has the power of a nuclear weapon. We know they have the fuel needed for a nuclear weapon. We have not yet seen direct evidence of a nuclear test, but all the signs are there that they do have them, and they do work.

They are relatively low yield compared to advanced nuclear technology held by the US, china, and others.

We suspect, but do not know, that their technology isn't advanced enough to fit, size and weight, into one of their ballistic missiles, which we do believe are now capable of just barely reaching LA.

So while it is possible that they have a nuclear warhead that fits onto a ballistic missile that hits LA, it is very, very unlikely.

However they probably could launch their current nuclear warheads and hit Japan, Guam, and South Korea.

They could not follow it up with much more than conventional firepower though. They have enough material to build a handful of warheads, but again these are very low yield warheads. Probably comparable to our bunker buster nukes, certainly nowhere near the bombs we dropped on Japan. So they could pick-mark South Korea, and kill millions depending on where they aim, but they couldn't decimate South Korea with nuclear weapons, nevermind annihilate them the way we could.

Their conventional firepower is sufficient to do significant damage to South Korea.

And their nuclear weapons will only get better.

I think they honestly believe that now that they have nuclear weapons they belong at the big boy table, despite the fact that the weapons pose little to no risk since our missile intercept systems currently surrounding them are sufficient to stop a large percentage of any missiles they send out, nevermind the slow ballistic missiles they have.


#78

sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker

I am a bit surprised that we don't use NK missile tests as a test for our naval ballistic missile interception systems. You know, once it hits international waters, take the joker out.


#79

strawman

strawman

sixpackshaker said:
I am a bit surprised that we don't use NK missile tests as a test for our naval ballistic missile interception systems. You know, once it hits international waters, take the joker out.
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Since the missiles have a flag then in international waters an attack on them counts as an attack on the nation itself. We can't attack them just because they are in international waters unless they are clearly a threat to us without essentially "taking the first shot". It would be no differs than attacking the missile while it was still on the ground inside their borders.


#80

Shawn

Shawn

I'm sure we'd probably bomb the fuckers if they weren't besties with China.


#81

Eriol

Eriol

stienman said:
We know they are capable of detonating a bomb which has the power of a nuclear weapon. We know they have the fuel needed for a nuclear weapon. We have not yet seen direct evidence of a nuclear test, but all the signs are there that they do have them, and they do work.

They are relatively low yield compared to advanced nuclear technology held by the US, china, and others.
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You need to pay a bit more attention: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_North_Korean_nuclear_test That was in February, less than two months ago.

From the link:
South Korea's defense ministry said the event reading indicated a blast of 6–7 kilotons,later revised to 6–9 kilotons using the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization’s calculation method. The Korea Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources estimated the yield as 7.7–7.8 kilotons. Some experts estimate the yield to be up to 15 kilotons, since the test site's geology is not well understood.

In comparison, the atomic (fission) bombs dropped by the Enola Gay on Hiroshima (Little Boy, a "gun-type" atomic bomb) and on Nagasaki by Bockscar (Fat Man, an "implosion-type" atomic bomb) had blast yield equivalence of 16 and 21 kilotons respectively.
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So yes, they have nukes, it's not just potential. Even if their missiles can't make it to the USA, it's still extremely bad for Japan or S. Korea.


#82

strawman

strawman

Eriol said:
So yes, they have nukes
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The "nukes" they claim to have have not been detonated in a manner which conclusively proves they were nuclear explosions. They don't detonate them above ground, and the underground tests appear to be so well sealed that no byproducts are released into the atmosphere for sampling planes to detect.

The explosions are in the kiloton range, and kinetic signature is within what a nuclear test would be, but there is a remote possibility that these are conventional explosions intended to give the impression they have working nuclear weapons.

But we cannot say with certainty that these explosions are actually nuclear.

Also, we measure our nuclear weapons in Megatons. Our smaller nuclear bombs, used for very difficult bunker busting, are in the hundreds of kilotons.

Yes, little boy and fat man were much, much smaller, but even they were 2-3 times bigger than the explosion north korea set off.


#83

Eriol

Eriol

stienman said:
Yes, little boy and fat man were much, much smaller, but even they were 2-3 times bigger than the explosion north korea set off.
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They still killed 10s of thousands of people each, and had extremely serious consequences. Even the "small" nukes are horrific in their power.

But non-nuclear explosions have been devastating throughout history. The Halifax Explosion of 1918 being the largest Non-nuclear explosion up to that date was "only" 2.9 kilotons and killed 2000 and injured 9000, plus basically leveling most of the city.

This is the picture (from wiki) of the result of "only" 2.9 kilotons:

DO NOT MINIMIZE THE THREAT HERE! Even small nukes like NK probably has are holy shit scary in their destructive power.


#84

Shawn

Shawn

I don't honestly care if one of N.Korea's has only the capability of killing a single human being. That's still too many in my opinion. Japan and S.Korea being within close firing range of these lunatics is scary. You could say it's not the easiest thing to be on bad terms with a country so close to your own, but it seems like N.Korea is on bad terms with just about everyone. China seems to like them, probably cause they like N.Korea's spunk and they share a disdain for the US. Just drone the son of a bitch and be done with it.


#85

Bubble181

Bubble181

stineman, I think you're going wrong somewhere. Yes, the three superpowers have bombs in the (hundreds of) megaton ranges, and the NK's are in the kilotons.

However, saying they're "nowhere near" Little Boy and Fat Man is almost certainly wrong. You didn't make those two that size because shits and giggles -they were pretty much the smallest they could make them at the time. It's hard making a nuclear bomb smaller and still go off - the smaller the blast you want, the less fuel you need - but with less fuel, it's harder to get to critical mass, since you need to apply ever more pressure to get those atoms close enough together.
Modern miniaturisation has helped, but still - making a bomb somewhere between 5 and 50 kT is easier than making a bomb much smaller (or you'd see them be used since they wouldn't be WMDs anymore - the nuclear briefcase doesn't exist yet*). Little Boy was 16 kT, Fat Man was 21 kT.
Even assuming NK's atomic bombs are around 5kT (unlikely, probably slightly larger), that's enough to obliterate the entire city center of LA. Americans these days lve a lot closer together than Japanese during WWII - higher population density equals higher possible body count. It's not impossible that, if NK were to launch a bomb at LA, they could take out 50.000 to 100.000 people.
More plausibly, they could nuke Tokyo with 2 or 3 such "small" bombs and get the casualty numbers into the high hundred thousands or low millions.

There's a reason no-one attacks Israel and why Pakistan and India have more-or-less settled into a Cold War over Kashmir once they both had the bomb. Even without MAD, no matter who started it, either would be assured to be devastated. "Not enough bombs to destroy the other" doesn't mean "not enough bombs to seriously cripple the other".


*while the smallest nuclear explosions, in the '60s, were around 15-20 tons (no kilo there), they're not fit for missile launch


#86

GasBandit

GasBandit

Nuclear bombs are scary, but at that end of the scale, they're possibly eclipsed by conventional methods. Remember, more people were killed by the US firebombing of Tokyo than at either Nagasaki or Hiroshima.


#87

strawman

strawman

So, here's my deal. Nuclear weapons have a huge amount of power in a small package. They are scary not just because of the initial effect, but the radioactive effect that kills within weeks and months and years and decades.

But they are merely bombs.

North Korea has hundreds of times more destructive power in conventional weapons than it currently has in nuclear weapons.

Yes, a single nuclear weapon will destroy a much larger portion of Seoul than their biggest conventional weapon, but they have enough conventional weapons to completely eradicate Seoul.

They don't have enough nuclear weapons to destroy Seoul as completely as they could with their conventional weapons.

A nuclear weapon is nothing to sneeze at. And they will only get better and better, they certainly have enough fuel for larger weapons.

But I think people can't help but hear "nuclear weapon" and think, "they can destroy a whole city in one go"

They can't. Yes, they can kill hundreds of thousands with the right placement and timing, but shouldn't we be looking at the whole picture, rather flying off the handle just because they can now harness atomic energy in their explosions?[DOUBLEPOST=1365696393][/DOUBLEPOST]Also, for those unaware, do a news search for north Korea's gulag system.

Horrifying.


#88

Espy

Espy

Turns out Metro sucks for launching missiles: http://www.newyorker.com/online/blo...rean-missile-test-delayed-by-windows-8.html:p


#89

CrimsonSoul

CrimsonSoul

Espy said:
Turns out Metro sucks for launching missiles: http://www.newyorker.com/online/blo...rean-missile-test-delayed-by-windows-8.html:p
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Server error


#90

sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker



#91

Gilgamesh

Gilgamesh

sixpackshaker said:
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I'm going to steal this and post it in so many places....


#92

sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker

Me too...


#93

Gilgamesh

Gilgamesh

sixpackshaker said:
Me too...
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It just works on so many levels.

To Obama haters, it'll send them into a frenzy of flame and bile. Saying how it should be Obama's picture etc etc etc
To Obama supporters, it'll send them into a frenzy of circle jerking, covering the land in jizz.


#94

DarkAudit

DarkAudit

Gilgamesh said:
It just works on so many levels.

To Obama haters, it'll send them into a frenzy of flame and bile. Saying how it should be Obama's picture etc etc etc
To Obama supporters, it'll send them into a frenzy of circle jerking, covering the land in jizz.
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Bah.

Should be Nixon. Dubya in Cheney and Rumsfeld and so many others from the Nixon and Ford admins. :p


#95

GasBandit

GasBandit

Damn that James Garfield, he ruined everything when he eliminated competition with the post office!


#96

Frank

Frank

You fools that aren't taking Glorious Best Korea seriously are in trouble when Great Leader unleashes his Glorious Best Fury on your unwashed, filthy lands.


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