For weather related stuff that probably doesn't deserve its own thread.
From Jeff Masters:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2542
Tropical Storm Karen
The 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast from NHC put Karen's best chance of becoming a hurricane as a 23% chance on Sunday at 2 am EDT. This is down from the 41% odds given in Thursday afternoon's forecast. ... We don't have much skill making hurricane intensity forecasts, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Karen do the opposite of what the models predict, and decay to a weak tropical storm just before landfall, due to strong wind shear. In any case, residents of New Orleans should feel confident that their levee system will easily withstand any storm surge Karen may generate, as rapid intensification of Karen to a Category 3 or stronger hurricane has a only a minuscule probability of occurring (1% chance in the latest NHC forecast.)
Most significant fire threat for Southern California in the past 5 years
A Santa Ana wind event is building over Southern California this morning, where wind gusts in excess of 50 mph have already been observed this morning. From the Los Angeles NWS office:
"Most significant fire weather threat across Southern California in past 5 years as strong Santa Ana wind event unfolds. In addition to the strength of winds being projected...the concerns with this event include the widespread nature and long duration of Santa Ana winds...very long period of single digit humidities...and extremely dry fuels approaching record levels. Red flag warnings are in effect for much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties overnight into Sunday. The onset of the offshore winds are expected to begin across the mountains by late evening...then descend into the lower elevations overnight. The peak of this Santa Ana wind event will likely be late tonight through Saturday morning...with the strongest winds focused across Los Angeles and Ventura counties."
A blizzard and a severe weather outbreak in the Midwest
The same low pressure system that is expected to turn Tropical Storm Karen to the northeast this weekend is hammering the Midwest with a variety of extreme weather today. Blizzard warnings are flying in Wyoming, Nebraska, and South Dakota from the storm, and a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes is expected over much of Iowa this afternoon.
Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has done some research to see the last time a blizzard, major severe weather outbreak, tropical storm, and extreme fire danger all threatened the U.S. at the same time, and has not been able to find such an event in past history.
From Jeff Masters:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2542
Tropical Storm Karen
The 5 am EDT Friday wind probability forecast from NHC put Karen's best chance of becoming a hurricane as a 23% chance on Sunday at 2 am EDT. This is down from the 41% odds given in Thursday afternoon's forecast. ... We don't have much skill making hurricane intensity forecasts, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Karen do the opposite of what the models predict, and decay to a weak tropical storm just before landfall, due to strong wind shear. In any case, residents of New Orleans should feel confident that their levee system will easily withstand any storm surge Karen may generate, as rapid intensification of Karen to a Category 3 or stronger hurricane has a only a minuscule probability of occurring (1% chance in the latest NHC forecast.)
Most significant fire threat for Southern California in the past 5 years
A Santa Ana wind event is building over Southern California this morning, where wind gusts in excess of 50 mph have already been observed this morning. From the Los Angeles NWS office:
"Most significant fire weather threat across Southern California in past 5 years as strong Santa Ana wind event unfolds. In addition to the strength of winds being projected...the concerns with this event include the widespread nature and long duration of Santa Ana winds...very long period of single digit humidities...and extremely dry fuels approaching record levels. Red flag warnings are in effect for much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties overnight into Sunday. The onset of the offshore winds are expected to begin across the mountains by late evening...then descend into the lower elevations overnight. The peak of this Santa Ana wind event will likely be late tonight through Saturday morning...with the strongest winds focused across Los Angeles and Ventura counties."
A blizzard and a severe weather outbreak in the Midwest
The same low pressure system that is expected to turn Tropical Storm Karen to the northeast this weekend is hammering the Midwest with a variety of extreme weather today. Blizzard warnings are flying in Wyoming, Nebraska, and South Dakota from the storm, and a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms with a few tornadoes is expected over much of Iowa this afternoon.
Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has done some research to see the last time a blizzard, major severe weather outbreak, tropical storm, and extreme fire danger all threatened the U.S. at the same time, and has not been able to find such an event in past history.
I have two pistols that I use and an AR and then I have 2 rifles and a revolver from the early 19th late 18th century from my grandparents but no shotgun
