Gas Bandit's Political Thread V: The Vampire Likes Bats
- Thread starter GasBandit
- Start date
GasBandit
Staff member
In another sign of the turmoil within the Republican Party, John Boehner's presumptive heir apparent, Kevin McCarthy, just announced in session before his fellow Republicans that he is dropping out of the race for speaker. All bets are off and chaos reigns in the party for the moment.
This decision comes after many Republican congressmen had indicated they would not support McCarthy because he was not conservative enough. The election for Speaker of the House is turning out to be just as interesting as the presidential race.
This decision comes after many Republican congressmen had indicated they would not support McCarthy because he was not conservative enough. The election for Speaker of the House is turning out to be just as interesting as the presidential race.
Pretty much. We got a bunch of politicians trying to save their careers at any cost, so it's going to be a shitstorm before it's over. It's going to be fun to watch but we're ultimately going to get a bunch of hard ultra conservatives running the boat into the bottom of the sea or a complete fracturing of the party (which NEEDS to happen because the party isn't serving the interests of it's supporters).
I'm trying to find the link now, but there was a story I read this morning while working through my job email quoting one of the more moderate GOP reps that he and others of his political wind might seek a consensus Speaker candidate with moderate democrats because they did not want to let the so-called Freedom Caucus set the agenda for the next 2+ years.
It was super "if", "maybe", etc., so I'm not putting much stock in it, but wouldn't that set the cat among the pigeons?
It was super "if", "maybe", etc., so I'm not putting much stock in it, but wouldn't that set the cat among the pigeons?
GasBandit
Staff member
Yeah, that has about as much chance of happening as Newt Gingrich being brought back to be speaker.
I think, tomorrow we'll be seeing more republicans declare their candidacy for the Speaker's chair, after they've had a night to think about it/discuss it with their families/etc.
Technically, I believe they can do that. I don't think the speaker needs to actually be currently in Congress. It's just that no one in Congress wants to chance handing the Presidency to someone who isn't them if they can help it.
GasBandit
Staff member
You're absolutely correct, and it was my intended meaning - a coalition speaker is technically possible but has a near 0% chance of happening.
The problem with the "Freedom Caucus" is that they're willing to go nuclear over any of their pet issues. They will die upon whatever hill they happen to be standing on, whether it makes sense to or not. That in and of itself isn't the problem - there are winners and losers with every vote. But the problem is, they're willing to slag the entire system if they don't get their way. And ultimately since every representative government needs some level of compromise in order to function, they are as much an obstacle to their fellow party members as they are to the opposition.
Last edited:
I really can't think of a single Republican candidate that they would all be willing to rally behind. The establishment has really always chosen who gets to lead and none of their candidates stand a chance. It's gonna be interesting to see what the Conservatives actually WANT for a change.
GasBandit
Staff member
Everybody keeps whining about congress not getting things done, but I for one would much rather have a congress that gets less done of what has been getting done lately. And if there's more government shutdowns, then ok.
"It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones." – Calvin Coolidge[DOUBLEPOST=1444342530,1444342434][/DOUBLEPOST]
Heh, I'm sure he is. Won't happen.
Must be lonely in the minority sometimes. And of course silly to champion hurting the economy just to satisfy your bizarre love for government stagnation.
GasBandit
Staff member
The federal government has been hurting the economy far more than any shutdown could have. The labor participation rate is still horrifically high, but they continue to lie to us about unemployment numbers.
(I'm assuming you mean low) They're not lying, last I checked. Those numbers are reported all the same, and you can use whichever definition of unemployment you'd like when you discuss it, as long as you stay consistent. The executive consistently uses the same definition/statistical-chart (isn't it the third one?) of 6. Nothing stopping us from one of the other five, or the labor participation rate that they report.
Unless you're implying that FRED is lying? That might make FRED pout.
GasBandit
Staff member
They are definitely lying. They are not measured in a consistent manner. The books are cooked. If you pegged it to pre-2008 labor participation rates, the unemployment rate would actually still be double digits, and the underemployment rate is also very high.
Really, I think the issue here is what can they actually do about this that wouldn't be shut down by the Conservative Elite?
GasBandit
Staff member
Well, it's rather simple, really - just look at which states created jobs while other states hemorrhaged them, and act accordingly.
Also, kill the TPP.
Anyway, how about some grenades for this beautiful sunday morning?
You know the funny part is that although I'm fairly opposite on the political spectrum from GB - I consider myself to be very liberal while he's quite conservative - I do agree to a point with the cases he's pointing out here.Well, it's rather simple, really - just look at which states created jobs while other states hemorrhaged them, and act accordingly.
Also, kill the TPP.
Anyway, how about some grenades for this beautiful sunday morning?
1) - Absolutely we need to end the war on drugs. Legalized marijuana has been far more of a benefit than a burden in the areas in which its been implemented, and by no longer having it as an excuse to lock up non-violent offenders, we can save taxpayer money on courts and prison costs for marijuana users. Regulate, tax, enjoy. Just like in parts of Europe.
2) - No way should we be selling weapons to the Sauds. The 'bin Saud' dynasty is a brutal feudalistic holdover that our government gets in bed with. Using them as one of our main allies in the region and arming and training them like we do is sure to bite us someday. And half of the regimes in the middle east don't trust us because we do trust the Sauds.
3) - Of course, the ones that held onto their guns and kept fighting didn't fare significantly better... but it is well worth remembering the monstrous acts our government has been capable of and committed, just so we can attempt to avoid them in the future.
Except "created jobs" is an irrelevant mechanic unless those jobs are white-collar jobs that take advantage of degrees or blue-collar professional jobs that rely on years of experience. Mostof the jobs lost during the Recession worth having that haven't come back were of those two sorts and they are the ones that aren't come back because businesses realized they make the people who stayed work 3 fucking jobs at once.
As for the TPP... as much as I hate fucking Free Trade shit like TPP and NAFTA, the TPP is probably the only way to keep China from dictating terms for trade in the coming years. It's been building it's navy for years, preparing for the moment when it starts trying control the trade lanes coming into and out of Asia (which the US has been pretty benevolent about doing for decades), essentially to be able to dictate better terms on trade with it's neighbors by pulling an "insurance" scam ("Those are nice ships... be a shame if anything happened to them"). The TPP is basically our way of slowing the emergence of China as a trade super power by making it very clear that the US is willing to become involved if they over step with our trade allies. We probably could/should have gotten better terms though... it's certainly not a good deal on our end.
People keep being surprised by this and I don't get it. His politics really aren't that much different than most of ours, once you move past the economic stuff. Rational people can disagree rationally on some issues and still realize that they line up together on a lot of other stuff. Is it really that surprising?
It's the "Rational" part that's uncommon.
I honestly don't fear China's naval power. I used to think the Soviet navy was impressive until it became clear that they could barely keep it afloat. The US Navy is, in many ways, the best of our armed forces branches, and our ability to project power through our Navy is staggering when you think about it. Essentially, a Navy task force has as much firepower as most nations.
I honestly don't fear China's naval power. I used to think the Soviet navy was impressive until it became clear that they could barely keep it afloat. The US Navy is, in many ways, the best of our armed forces branches, and our ability to project power through our Navy is staggering when you think about it. Essentially, a Navy task force has as much firepower as most nations.
That's the thing though... we're not afraid of FIGHTING China's navy. The actual situation we'd be afraid of is...
- China sets up a trade zone or trade alliance by intimidating it's neighbors.
- It declares that -it- will patrol it and that US Naval ships are unwelcome.
... because then WE need to decide if the Chinese Navy is going blink and go home when we roll in or try to actually start something, which makes us look bad regardless of how it turns out. The TPP makes it clear that the US has a vested interest in patrolling the region (we're protecting our trade with these nations) that China doesn't have the right to prevent.
Considering you've "allowed" North Korea to patrol their waters and a 500 mile radius around it pretty much unopposed, and the same for Somalia, my guess is that once China decides to be more aggressive about the area they wish to exert power over, you'll back down.
On the other hand, I'm fairly sure there will come a point in time where a lot of the production/base industry will start coming back from South-east Asia. Either Africa/Eastern Europe/Mexico/Northern South-America will start to pick up the slack, or our economies will shift so hard that Western Europe and the US once again become viable places to build/assemble stuff though protectionist measures. I'm not saying either of those is a great outcome, but one way or another, practically slave labor outsourced to far Asia is going to crumble. Might be another 50 years, of course, and if China's smart enough they'll manage. So far, they're still incredibly reliant on Western markets for their consumer goods, really, and their internal demand just isn't growing fast enough.
It's almost certain that manufacturing jobs will return to the First World the moment it becomes possible to automate them full with machines, if only because it will take less time to ship everything, but until then... yes, the last stop is probably Africa until then. Also, it's completely viable to produce things in the US and Western Europe, it's simply that no one does it because it's STILL cheaper even if you have to ship around the world. It's not a measure of it being too expensive, it's a measure of the business owners not actually giving a shit about their fellow man.
There's a thing which will probably continue until it is no longer economically feasible.
--Patrick
GasBandit
Staff member
It's baloney. And David Brooks is no conservative. He's the biggest democrat fanboy who ever pretended to be otherwise, he speaks with no authority on this subject. The problem with the republican party is its establishment, not its unruly insurgents.
Last edited:
GasBandit
Staff member
Even this morning they were like "Everyone else thinks Bernie is winning, but who trusts Facebook?" which isn't the WORST position, but CNN is sorta in the hole right now.
Hey now! All Belgian newspapers are claiming Hillary won too!
...their source, of course, being CNN, but who ever looks at that little line on the bottom, right? Besides, "CNN" sounds legit.
(be aware this is also how every other country gets info about other countries, your info on French or Dutch or Belgian politics is just as trustworthy.)
right now?
I always thought the idea of winning and losing a debate was always kind of silly.