Gas Bandit's Political Thread V: The Vampire Likes Bats

I think we are all being a little silly here. There is nothing scientific about the polling here and often opinions aren’t as black and white when it comes to issues. These polls can’t adjust for nuance, and the snarky conclusions (both for Dems and Reps) lead me to think it was their goal all along.

I certainly wouldn’t use this to support any side of an argument.
The snark is provided by Cards Against Humanity (ala Buzzfeed) but the research was conducted by PhD's at universities, hired by CAH. The fellow that presented at the Human Behavior and Evolution Society conference a week ago (presented without snark) was making a preliminary argument that people do not adopt ideals that then define their political group status, but rather that people's ideals are shaped by their group status and that large coalitions (like Blue Dog Democrats and Socialist Democrats or Tea Party Republicans, Evangelical Christians, and classic Reagan-era Republicans) can only hold together if people are willing to adopt competing ideologies so that the coalition does not dissolve trough infighting or ostracization.

Yes, it is true that not all of the questions are perfect but they do not need to be in the aggregate. Dismissing the lot because a few questions don't feel right misses the bigger picture, I think. I brought it up in the first place because it has been on my mind since the conference, but also to suggest that we are basically screwed. Party affiliation is more important than ideas on both sides of the aisle. Unless we can overcome that (and I doubt we can), then politics will be nothing more than flag waving for the foreseeable future.
 
They used an online poll. That is an automatic failure. I guess I'm not sure how better to explain how this is bad science.
It is imperfect science. Like all science. I do teach this stuff, including the dangers of surveys, online sampling, etc. These approaches do have value in spite of those flaws.
 
It is imperfect science. Like all science. I do teach this stuff, including the dangers of surveys, online sampling, etc. These approaches do have value in spite of those flaws.
Sure, but it's really important to say "This is not a good scientific polling of data". 538 would laugh at you for using it as real data though.
 
Sure, but it's really important to say "This is not a good scientific polling of data". 538 would laugh at you for using it as real data though.
Nice appeal to authority. They reference online polls all the time. They acknowledge the flaws all the time. Do you even disagree with the idea proposed at all? I have no idea.
 
Damn straight. Mailed letter polls are the only polls acceptable.



/s
Uh, I hope I didn't say that. As anyone knows involved with the scientific method, the problem with online polls is they are filled out by people who are likely to fill out a poll. Not exactly a good sampling of the general public at large.

Shit, why am I bothering?
 
I mean, wasn't one of your criticism a lack of nuance? Where is the nuance now? Does the sampling method imply any difference between parties or are you just concerned that it doesn't generalize to the rural or less educated?
 

Dave

Staff member
Online polls are just like every other type of polls in that they are inherently biased in some way. Online tends to ignore the poor who are less likely to have access to the necessary technology to fill out such a poll. It ignores the elderly because they don't use the technology. It ignores those who are not English speakers.

But having said that, mailing is bad, standing in front of a store is bad, conducting phone polling is bad. There's no real perfect way to poll so as long as you are cognizant of the inherent biases, you can still use the data, just don't make any hard conclusions.
 
I mean, wasn't one of your criticism a lack of nuance? Where is the nuance now? Does the sampling method imply any difference between parties or are you just concerned that it doesn't generalize to the rural or less educated?
My comment on nuance was wording of the questions. But I appreciate you treating me like I don't know the difference between a set up and a scientific polling.

And of course, it goes without saying, mailing are not good scientific polling either. Christ, I can't believe i have to say that. This forum has gone to shit.
 
My comment on nuance was wording of the questions. But I appreciate you treating me like I don't know the difference between a set up and a scientific polling.

And of course, it goes without saying, mailing are not good scientific polling either. Christ, I can't believe i have to say that. This forum has gone to shit.
The most I can get out of your posts is "fuck polls". Is that all there is here?
 
If that’s what you want to get out of it, than that’s what you’ll get.
It really isn't what I want to get out of it but you really aren't communicating much more than that. You seem to rely on the reader to already have the same conclusions as you (?). I fundamentally disagree with the general assertions you have made thus far, though, mainly because they have been very general. I really do hope there is more depth to what you are saying.
 
It really isn't what I want to get out of it but you really aren't communicating much more than that. You seem to rely on the reader to already have the same conclusions as you (?). I fundamentally disagree with the general assertions you have made thus far, though, mainly because they have been very general. I really do hope there is more depth to what you are saying.
Ok, I'll play (because I like you and find you are usually pretty neutral in regards to Dems Vs Repub bullshit happening).

Lets take one item in the poll I have issue with-

The Democrats and science- Whenever Scientist agree on an issue, we should believe the scientists.

This is the stupidest wording of a poll I've EVER seen, and that's saying something. Of COURSE NOT. Every scientific theory is open to criticism if the evidence flows in a way to be counter to the currently belief. This is TERRIBLE. Now, I'm not saying the conclusion made by the polling isn't unfair, but the wording to get to it isn't exactly doing anyone any favors. There's nothing here to say that a person should't question CURRENT conclusions, or that previous conclusions should't be tested. But of course, it's set up to treat people who say no as "You're a fucking idiot, OF COURSE YOU SHOULD".

Now, do I, as a layman, PRESUME the previous conclusions made by the scientific community, as presented to me, are true and accurate? Uh, YEAH. That's not saying it is, and of course a healthy case of skepticism is important in our day to day lives.

This is just one of the MANY issues I have with the polling done here.
 
Ok, I'll play (because I like you and find you are usually pretty neutral in regards to Dems Vs Repub bullshit happening).

Lets take one item in the poll I have issue with-

The Democrats and science- Whenever Scientist agree on an issue, we should believe the scientists.

This is the stupidest wording of a poll I've EVER seen, and that's saying something. Of COURSE NOT. Every scientific theory is open to criticism if the evidence flows in a way to be counter to the currently belief. This is TERRIBLE. Now, I'm not saying the conclusion made by the polling isn't unfair, but the wording to get to it isn't exactly doing anyone any favors. There's nothing here to say that a person should't question CURRENT conclusions, or that previous conclusions should't be tested. But of course, it's set up to treat people who say no as "You're a fucking idiot, OF COURSE YOU SHOULD".

Now, do I, as a layman, PRESUME the previous conclusions made by the scientific community, as presented to me, are true and accurate? Uh, YEAH. That's not saying it is, and of course a healthy case of skepticism is important in our day to day lives.

This is just one of the MANY issues I have with the polling done here.
tldr: I agree, but it is no reason to chuck everything out the window, even in this case

You are absolutely right, the questions are not all great. This is true for the Republican questions as well. I don't even think you gave the most egregious example. But the specific questions were not the overall point. It was to test wither over-arching ideals drove people's party affiliation (broad ones, like: Should the government regulate things or should we be accepting of all people). Hundreds of studies use political ideology as the starting point in political affiliation. There is consistent suggestive evidence that this is probably not correct in the data they collected. This research, again, by an academic that was funded by CAH, is definitely a pilot study, as he is testing a new theory. One that flies in the face of usual theories of party affiliation. The results from such research can only be suggestive and, as such, inform potentially better future studies. The best thing it has going for it is that they recruited a very large sample, by academic standards.

You could probably go through and discard some of the question pairings and it would still leave you with the same or a similar conclusion because there are many opportunities to test how people hold opposing ideals. Remember, that is the aim here. It isn't to try and trick people into looking foolish like some kind of late night show gag (despite how CAH presents the results...don't trust the guys who spent millions of dollars digging a pointless hole for anything). The suggestion supported by these (notably imperfect) results that people stick to their party affiliation in the face of conflicting ideologies is not that outrageous. There is plenty of research in laboratory settings going all the way back to the late 50s showing how people handle conflicting ideas.

I blame the media for it's depiction of science as a series of monumental upheavals. That is not what we do. We explore and predict to try and figure out what is going on. And a given idea in science will be at one of many different stages of evolution, from suggestive to certain. I think the data these researchers presented was compelling and jives with my experiences (as a moderate). We're still at the "here's a new theory of political affiliation" stage of science but I don't think the sampling method or even the survey design is enough to conclude that the results are biased against one party or another or that they only apply to a small subset of the population. It is possible, though, but it will take a thorough deconstruction of the methods for that case to be compelling. That is what replication and future research is for, of course. One thing we do in science, though, is challenge ideas with data, not just dismiss them out of hand.

(Personally, I've been considering some possible research to testing related ideas using very different methods.)
 
I could see republicans approving taxpayer funded vouchers for guns, not nationalized, of course, but they'd love to help the manufacturers.
 
Shit, I'm just an average asshole on the internet. I don't have a PHD, and I admit I'm punching WAY above my weight class.
I feel like you're not arguing because you disagree. I feel like you're arguing because you are frustrated. Is everything alright?
 
Again with the conflating of a "right" to an "entitlement."
Which is why reps would be ok with taxing guns 40000%....
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Dismissing the lot because a few questions don't feel right misses the bigger picture, I think. I .
Heh, that's funny since Trumpsters are clearly more biased, going by that poll.


Party affiliation is more important than ideas on both sides of the aisle. Unless we can overcome that (and I doubt we can), then politics will be nothing more than flag waving for the foreseeable future.
Oh yeah, because in "the before times" that wasn't true at all... a certain amount of ppl voting for 1 party no matter what its how it's always been... the real issue is when one side has more of those ppl, which leads to anyone, no matter how crazy and/or stupid being able to win just because of party affiliation....
 
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