I'm talking primaries here. I've already made it clear I'm not voting for an old white man in those.
GasBandit
Staff member
I'm tuning my optimism toward flipping the Senate.
Zappit
Staff member
Biden was expected to do well in many of the swing states and the rust belt region. I’m not surprised at all. He’s more popular than a lot of people realize.
I think, if anything, tonight pretty much confirmed a big suspicion I’ve had since the beginning. The south will not turn out enough for Bernie, either in the primaries or a general election. I know so many are saying only Bernie can beat Trump, but I just don’t see it. The not-Bernie vote is starting to coalesce, and it’s going to be clear after Bloomberg is out there’s just not enough Sanders support. The percentage of victory for Biden tonight in states he won seems to be larger than the difference in states Bernie won.
I don’t think the reaction to the South Carolina results from a number of very vocal Bernie Bros did him any favors, either.
If Biden announces Harris as his running mate, Sanders is done. If Biden invites Sanders to be his VP for a real unity ticket, maybe Trump gets absolutely trounced in the general. Dems are doing well in down-ballot races tonight lately, and a good number of independents who went for Trump in 2016 regret their choice. Biden looks a hell of a lot better to them than Sanders.
Joe’s not my first choice, but if it’s him or Trump, there’s nothing to think about. Trump’s gotta go.
I'm surprised at the support Biden has gotten. He's definitely beaten expectations. Bernie has, at best, met expectations.
Also, Warren just sent this out:
So she is still in it for a week, at least.
And why not? Bill Clinton did poorly until after Super Tuesday back in the day. It ain't over yet.
It was already close between Bernie and Klobuchar. I figured most would follow Klobuchar and vote Biden, but seeing as how Bernie took Mn pretty easily over Hillary last time, I figured at least enough would move to Bernie to put him ahead.
Zappit
Staff member
That’s the thing - Bernie isn’t getting the numbers he did in 16. He has support, but not like he did before. The youngest voters, who Sanders was really counting on, are turning out in extremely low numbers.
If they don’t show up, he’s not going to beat Biden. Forget about Trump.
If they don’t show up, he’s not going to beat Biden. Forget about Trump.
Relevant to the discussion we just had here: a comment on the live blog at 538:
Biden worries me a bit. Mainly due to his odd comments, or space out moments. Which is why I did end up voting for Sanders. I can definitely see Biden being most peoples safe choice though.
Either one is better than trump though, and hopefully at the end of the day, that’s all that matters.
Either one is better than trump though, and hopefully at the end of the day, that’s all that matters.
This headline amused me:
Bloomberg to Reassess Campaign After Spending Half a Billion Dollars to Win American Samoa
www.vice.com
Bloomberg to Reassess Campaign After Spending Half a Billion Dollars to Win American Samoa
Bloomberg to Reassess Campaign After Spending Half a Billion Dollars to Win American Samoa
Bloomberg is picking up delegates in several states, however, and appears to be helping Bernie Sanders in Texas, where the Vermont senator currently holds a slim lead over Joe Biden.
www.vice.com
Texas win goes to Biden, it seems, in spite of Bloomberg. It was quite a night for Biden. I'm sure the DNC is thrilled.
Shocking after they closed 500+ polls in Texas and made voting in the primary as difficult as possible.
Unless I'm mistaken, I thought most of the polling places closed were in uneducated black neighborhoods...Which is a demographic where Biden beats Sanders easily. If anything, wouldn't this move have made it harder on Biden?
You'll forgive me if I don't take your word for it. I could only find something on regular elections with a quick search.
One thing I think people - especially Bernie-fans - are forgetting, is that Biden isn't Clinton. They may both be "the establishment candidate" but there are some big differences in how they appear, how they behave, and on some issues.
I still think the choice for Biden not to run in 2016 to make way for Clinton was a horrible mistake, as Biden would have done better IMO. And he was younger then than he is now - if he's the nominee you're basically running two slightly-dementing geriatrics against each other.
To be clear, I'm not a big Biden fan - as I stated earlier, I put him behind Buttigieg,Klobuchar, Warren and Bernie in my personal preference. But there are good, valid, reasons to vote for him, and continuously calling people who do stupid isn't very helpful.
I still think the choice for Biden not to run in 2016 to make way for Clinton was a horrible mistake, as Biden would have done better IMO. And he was younger then than he is now - if he's the nominee you're basically running two slightly-dementing geriatrics against each other.
To be clear, I'm not a big Biden fan - as I stated earlier, I put him behind Buttigieg,Klobuchar, Warren and Bernie in my personal preference. But there are good, valid, reasons to vote for him, and continuously calling people who do stupid isn't very helpful.
You're right, it was a general election polls thing. The place I read it linked it to the current Super Tuesday stuff.
Latino too, which are mostly Bernie supporters and Bernie has more young black voters according to exit polls than Biden.
Good on ya Hervis!
Waiting for places to repeat 2018 bullshit with one broken voting machine per predominantly POC neighborhood.
Dave
Staff member
Same as it ever was. Young people talk a good game and then do fuck all. I keep saying this, I keep getting yelled at, and they keep doing the same fucking thing. You want change, fuckers? Well, it ain't gonna change itself.
Some numbers:
Some numbers:
- In Alabama, only 7% of the voters were in the 17-29 range compared to 14% in 2016. Sanders won six of every 10 of those voters Tuesday compared to four of 10 in 2016.
- In North Carolina, 13% of Tuesday’s electorate were young voters, compared to 16% four years ago. Of those, 57% went for Sanders in 2020 compared to 69% in 2016.
- In South Carolina, young voters made up 11% of the electorate Tuesday compared to 15% in 2016. Sanders won 43% of those voters Tuesday compared to 54% four years ago.
- In Tennessee, 11% of those voters showed up Tuesday versus 15% in 2016. Sanders did better among that group Tuesday winning 65% compared to 61% four years ago.
- In Virginia, young voters comprised 13% of Tuesday’s vote compared to 16% in 2016. Sanders won 57% of those voters Tuesday compared to 69% four years ago.
Apparently you're alone in this. I'm off Twitter for a few days because today everything is how Bernie is being robbed and Trump will be elected solely because Warren didn't drop out and the DNC is a all-powerful cabal who has rigged everything.
Not an excuse, but you guys make it so fucking hard to vote for anything.
Out of curiosity, what percentage of the electorate for those states are in the 17-29 range? While those numbers are too low that's the number they need to be compared against instead of the natural implication to compare them against 100% which they shouldn't get near to anyway.
Dave
Staff member
True. The lines in Texas alone were stupid. Voter suppression is a thing, people.
And I don't know what the demographics are. Like, how many registered voters in Alabama are ages 17-29? No way to tell. But that is a valid question.
This is one reason I am a huge supporter for all election days, both primary and general, to become holidays, or at the very least, hold them on a weekend.
There is a reason one of the largest voting blocks is usually older, often retired people. It's because they have the ability to sit in line for 5 hours to cast a vote. That young dude trying to make minimum wage at Starbucks isn't likely to then turn around after his shift and go sit in line for hours to vote. Even the largest voting block, which is in the 45-64 range, usually have jobs with more lenient PTO then most entry level jobs. Some jobs don't even allow sick days, so good luck faking an illness in the hopes of getting off to vote.
There is a reason one of the largest voting blocks is usually older, often retired people. It's because they have the ability to sit in line for 5 hours to cast a vote. That young dude trying to make minimum wage at Starbucks isn't likely to then turn around after his shift and go sit in line for hours to vote. Even the largest voting block, which is in the 45-64 range, usually have jobs with more lenient PTO then most entry level jobs. Some jobs don't even allow sick days, so good luck faking an illness in the hopes of getting off to vote.
I got my ballot weeks ago and just had to mail it in or drop it in a box. I waited until the last minute and it's a good thing I did, because I feel bad for everyone who voted for Buttigieg or Klobuchar.
Even I was getting them and I'm not even in the USA!
Dave
Staff member
Just think of the GOOD things he could have done with that money. And now he's throwing his weight behind Biden. So unless the young turn out in record numbers - which I sincerely doubt - that's probably it for Bernie.