There's this bloc of people who are REALLY nostalgic for racism that's buoying his numbers.
--Patrick
Gas Bandit's Political Thread V: The Vampire Likes Bats
- Thread starter GasBandit
- Start date
--Patrick
Republican polling outlets are also flooding the aggregate polling sites with bogus data to sway the odds.
Even reputable polling sites are openly admitting to herding their poll results (adjusting their projection models so it shows close) because they're so afraid of underestimating Trump and facing retribution.
Think even Nate Silver admitted this, or at least said it's very unheard of for so many polls to rate so close together. It's why so many people were excited about the Selzer poll because not only has she been consistently accurate, she was one of the few that isn't trying to hug close to the others.
If the Selzer poll ends up being accurate and Iowa goes to Harris, the rest of the midwest is likely to follow. This does not mean getting confident though. If anyone has not voted, make sure to vote.
It feels like they’re doing their best to set themselves up for pushing the rigged election crap again. If they can sway the numbers to keep the narrative of a tight race, they can easily claim it was stolen if there is a big win for Harris.
I’m not getting my hopes up, but I live in a very red area and there’s a lot of people who have voted for trump both times that are claiming they won’t this time. The polls just don’t feel right based on what I’m seeing, but that doesn’t mean much.
We’ll find out soon though.
I remember watching the 2008 election unfold. I was in South Korea at the time. My roommate and I had a premium international cable package. We kept up with CNN's live coverage. It was a late Tuesday night in the US, but for us it was Wednesday afternoon. I remember watching state after state glow blue on the map. There were those the Democrats were guaranteed to win (California, Hawaii, Massachusetts). There were the more competitive states at the time (Florida, North Carolina, Ohio). And then there were those states such as Indiana that are beyond Democratic aspirations today. It felt GREAT. After eight years of Dubya, it felt like it was morning again in America.
Call me nauseously optimistic about tomorrow.
Call me nauseously optimistic about tomorrow.
No matter what happens today I think I am done with the internet. What used to bring me joy with cat videos and goofy facts now feels like an algorithm driven stress factory. It's been slowly killing me and I know it won't stop till Trump is dead in the ground, and probably not even then. I hate fucking engagement driven media
Newspapers in the 19th century onwards were Yellow Journalism going for old timey click bait.
Mostly leaving the internet has been a major boon to my mental health.
GasBandit
Staff member
Trump, who tried to overturn his 2020 election loss, said he “shouldn’t have left” the White House. “We did so well,” he added, “so now, every polling booth has hundreds of lawyers standing there.” Trump has not committed to accepting the 2024 election results unless he wins, baselessly claimed that the Democrats are “demonic” and “a bunch of cheats,” and suggested that Kamala Harris is nothing more than a “vessel.” Trump also complained about a new poll that shows him lagging behind in Iowa, a state he twice carried, saying “We got all this crap going on with the press and with fake stuff and fake polls,” suggesting that the poll from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom was put out by “one of my enemies.” And, at rally after rally, Trump has urged his supporters to deliver a victory “too big to rig,” telling them: “The only thing that can stop us is the cheating. It’s the only thing that can stop us.” In 2020, Trump prematurely declared victory from the White House, launched a legal and political effort to overturn his loss, which resulted in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. Since then, Congress has passed the Electoral Count Reform Act, which makes it harder to stop the certification of the results by Congress on Jan. 6, which Trump tried to do four years ago. (New York Times / Politico / Washington Post / Associated Press / New York Times / CNN)
Trump said he wouldn’t “mind” if someone had to “shoot through the fake news” to get to him. Trump made the remark while complaining about the bulletproof glass surrounding him onstage, saying: “I have this piece of glass here. But all we have really over here is the fake news, right? And to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. And I don’t mind that so much. I don’t mind. I don’t mind.” Trump’s campaign, meanwhile, denied that Trump was wishing harm upon the media, but instead implying that the media was in danger and “should have had a glass protective shield, also.” (Politico / Washington Post / Axios / Associated Press)
House Speaker Mike Johnson said Republicans “probably will” try to repeal the CHIPS and Science Act if they control Congress and Trump wins the White House. The CHIPS and Science Act was passed in 2022 and will invest more than $200 billion over a five-year period to help the U.S. regain a leading position in semiconductor chip manufacturing. So far, the CHIPS act has allocated $19.5 billion to Arizona, $75 million to Georgia, $325 million to Michigan, $750 million to North Carolina, and $93 million to Pennsylvania. Johnson later said he “misheard the question.” Kamala Harris, meanwhile, said: “Let’s be clear about why he walked it back: Because it’s not popular, and their agenda is not popular. It is my plan and intention to continue to invest in American manufacturing, the work being done by American workers upholding and lifting up good union jobs.” Last week, Johnson said there would be “no Obamacare” if Trump won the White House, prompting the Trump campaign to issue a statement that repealing the Affordable Care Act isn’t a policy position. (CNN / Associated Press / Bloomberg / Axios / NBC News)
- Four years after ‘stop the steal,’ an organized army emerges online. “The fringe group that tried to subvert Donald Trump’s 2020 loss has spent years preparing to contest the 2024 vote. This time, Elon Musk is on their side.” (Washington Post)
- Republicans bring back fake electors in battlegrounds. “More than a dozen fake electors from 2020 are back this time. And several election deniers are among the new prospective Trump electors.” (Politico)
- Trump claims “illegal alien” voting is rampant. His own party disagrees. “In a private video training session, a top Pennsylvania Republican National Committee official reassured a new poll watcher that undocumented people could not possibly vote in the state.” (ProPublica)
- Supreme Court allows Pennsylvania to count contested provisional ballots, rejecting Republican plea. “The ruling is a victory for voting-rights advocates, who had sought to force counties — primarily Republican-controlled counties — to let voters cast a provisional ballot on Election Day if their mail-in ballot was to be rejected for a garden-variety error.” (Associated Press)
- Supreme Court to review Louisiana congressional map after election. “The court’s decision will not impact this week’s elections, as the justices previously allowed the Legislature’s new map that includes a second majority-Black district to move forward until they resolve the case.” (The Hill / CNN / Bloomberg / Associated Press)
- Democratic presidential campaign officials say 2024 won’t be like 2020 with Trump out of power. “Trump won’t succeed if he tries to stir a violent overthrow of the 2024 presidential election results for one ‘essential’ reason.” (Daily Beast)
Trump said he wouldn’t “mind” if someone had to “shoot through the fake news” to get to him. Trump made the remark while complaining about the bulletproof glass surrounding him onstage, saying: “I have this piece of glass here. But all we have really over here is the fake news, right? And to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. And I don’t mind that so much. I don’t mind. I don’t mind.” Trump’s campaign, meanwhile, denied that Trump was wishing harm upon the media, but instead implying that the media was in danger and “should have had a glass protective shield, also.” (Politico / Washington Post / Axios / Associated Press)
- Trump’s long legacy of inciting violence. “No president has appealed to Americans’ darkest impulses or sought to turn them on one another like Trump has.” (Mother Jones)
House Speaker Mike Johnson said Republicans “probably will” try to repeal the CHIPS and Science Act if they control Congress and Trump wins the White House. The CHIPS and Science Act was passed in 2022 and will invest more than $200 billion over a five-year period to help the U.S. regain a leading position in semiconductor chip manufacturing. So far, the CHIPS act has allocated $19.5 billion to Arizona, $75 million to Georgia, $325 million to Michigan, $750 million to North Carolina, and $93 million to Pennsylvania. Johnson later said he “misheard the question.” Kamala Harris, meanwhile, said: “Let’s be clear about why he walked it back: Because it’s not popular, and their agenda is not popular. It is my plan and intention to continue to invest in American manufacturing, the work being done by American workers upholding and lifting up good union jobs.” Last week, Johnson said there would be “no Obamacare” if Trump won the White House, prompting the Trump campaign to issue a statement that repealing the Affordable Care Act isn’t a policy position. (CNN / Associated Press / Bloomberg / Axios / NBC News)
- Why on Earth does Trump want to cancel the CHIPS Act? “A second Trump presidency would truly be a gift to Xi Jinping.” (Noahpinion)
- Jeffrey Epstein details close relationship with Trump in newly released tapes. “Recordings from 2017 reveal Epstein talking for some ‘100 hours’ about the ex-president, journalist Michael Wolff says.” (The Guardian)
- Listen to the Jeffrey Epstein tapes: “I was Donald Trump’s closest friend.” “Explosive tapes recorded by author Michael Wolff show Epstein claiming Trump liked to “fuck” his friends’ wives and first slept with Melania on the ‘Lolita Express.’” (Daily Beast)
- Jeffrey Epstein unleashes opinion on former ‘friend’ Donald Trump in unearthed audio. “Explosive recordings released by journalist Michael Wolff and The Daily Beast reveal Epstein’s candid thoughts about his ‘charming’ but ‘horrible” ex-friend.’ (HuffPost)
- Trump’s friendship with Jeffrey Epstein: Everything we know. (New York Magazine)
GasBandit
Staff member
More than 83 million Americans voted early in the first presidential election since the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. Polls show the presidential race between Harris and Trump to be historically close and likely decided by a handful of voters in the seven battleground states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. Control of the House and Senate is also on the line with 435 House seats and 34 Senate seats up for grabs. Democrats need to flip four seats to win control of the House, while in the Senate the Republicans have a clear path for control. Voters in 10 states will decide whether to cement reproductive rights in their state constitutions. In 62 days, Kamala Harris will preside over a joint session of Congress. After counting the 2024 electoral votes, Harris will either declare herself the winner – marking the first woman elected president – or announce that Trump is returning to the White House as the second president to be elected to two nonconsecutive terms – and at 78 years old, the oldest person ever elected president. (Washington Post / New York Times / Associated Press / Bloomberg / Wall Street Journal / NBC News / The Guardian)
How to manage stress and maintain perspective on election night in one sentence: Surround yourself with supportive people; set realistic expectations for results; mentally prepare for any outcome; accept uncertainty and lack of control; know the possibility of significant polling error; limit social media and news refreshes; remind yourself of past resilience; focus on the bigger picture beyond this election; and have a plan for post-election activities that bring you joy.
- How the Election Could Unfold: Four Scenarios. “A look at plausible outcomes that might wind up seeming obvious in hindsight.” (New York Times)
- Harris’s possible paths to victory. “Mapping the ways Harris can win.” (Washington Post)
- Trump’s possible paths to victory. “Mapping the ways Trump can win.” (Washington Post)
- How the World Is Prepping for a Trump or Harris Victory. “The outcome of the US election will have a major impact globally, from Ukraine and the Mideast to world trade.” (Bloomberg)
How to manage stress and maintain perspective on election night in one sentence: Surround yourself with supportive people; set realistic expectations for results; mentally prepare for any outcome; accept uncertainty and lack of control; know the possibility of significant polling error; limit social media and news refreshes; remind yourself of past resilience; focus on the bigger picture beyond this election; and have a plan for post-election activities that bring you joy.
And Russia is apparently dry running sending incendiary devices across the pond to us. Cool. Cool Cool. Lets just keep pretending we aren't already neck deep in WW3.
www.nytimes.com
Russian Plot Placed Incendiary Devices on Cargo Planes in Europe, Officials Say
Western officials are investigating whether devices planted at shipping hubs in Europe may have been a test run by Russian operatives for placing them on planes bound for the U.S.
Not that it would have constituted a huge surprise, but released a few weeks earlier this could've really made a difference. Now? Too little too late.
I think you have little faith in the complete denial ability of the common Trumpanzee.
figmentPez
Staff member
Ya know, the way this election is going, I don't think that Joe Biden is going to be president come January.
You’re not allowed to turn this shit-show into a dad joke.
It's all Joever.
Because like the rest of the world, a Trump win affects you too.
I'm so ashamed for America that this has even been a close call. So much different information out there but none of it gives me the warm fuzzy. I'm in PA, I have a child in MI, I'm from NV. I had hope that if all went blue......
But what I'm seeing.... this American populace, I don't know if there's any hope for us.
But what I'm seeing.... this American populace, I don't know if there's any hope for us.
GasBandit
Staff member
Remember the Red Mirage and Blue Shift. Podunk, TN gets done counting early. Cities take longer . Its why Trump wanted them to "stop the count" early 4 years ago.
