Here are some of my opinions on Iran and it's possible nuclear weapons development program.
The first question that needs to be assessed is whether or not Iran does in fact have a weapons dimension in it's nuclear program. It seems fairly likely
they had one until 2003, though it is uncertain how far they got with it. Their failure to comply fully with IAEA inspections after 2006 does raise eyebrows, and IAEA has not been able to
verify the matter one way or the other, though they have some suspicions that, indeed, the
weapons program did begin again:
42. The information which serves as the basis for the Agency’s analysis and concerns, as identified in the Annex, is assessed by the Agency to be, overall, credible. The information comes from a wide variety of independent sources, including from a number of Member States, from the Agency’s own efforts and from information provided by Iran itself. It is consistent in terms of technical content, individuals and organizations involved, and time frames.
43. The information indicates that Iran has carried out the following activities that are relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device:
• Efforts, some successful, to procure nuclear related and dual use equipment and materials by military related individuals and entities (Annex, Sections C.1 and C.2);
• Efforts to develop undeclared pathways for the production of nuclear material (Annex, Section C.3);
• The acquisition of nuclear weapons development information and documentation from a clandestine nuclear supply network (Annex, Section C.4); and
• Work on the development of an indigenous design of a nuclear weapon including the testing of components (Annex, Sections C.5–C.12).
44. While some of the activities identified in the Annex have civilian as well as military applications, others are specific to nuclear weapons.
So why would it be bad if Iran got it's hands on some nuclear firepower? Well, I don't think they'd attack Israel, regardless of fears brought up by some statements from the iranian leadership. Of course, you have the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and breaking it is bad for valid reasons, but I'll leave that aside for now as a matter of international law. Concentrating on the possible effects it would have in the area, a nuclear Iran would encourage arab states to also think about acquiring nuclear weapons to counteract the massive trump card Iran would have, in order to resist it's domination. Or real nuclear guarantees from an outside power. And I'm not sure sufficient guarantees to that effect would be forthcoming; witness the decision of the european powers to acquire nuclear weapons to resist the Soviet Union, in spite of US assurances of a nuclear umbrella. And a neighbourhood where several arab states had nuclear weapons would be a grave threat to Israel, itself thought to be an undeclared nuclear power, which would loose a big ace up it's sleeve in any possible future war against arab states.
If the decision is made to engage Iran militarily, how would it go? As in Libya, the campaign would begin by dismantling the iranian air defence. Also as a target would be the iranian military assets capable of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which is a major oil artery of the world. I think only after this would the real work of attacking iranian nuclear facilities commence. It is a major undertaking, and unless the iranians roll over and play dead immediately, may last a long time. But there are several risks and difficulties associated with it. For one, there are
grave doubts about the capabilities of conventional ordinance to take out iranian underground facilities. Also, some israeli military leaders
have doubts about attacking Iran. And If the attack fails, then one of the very few options remaining would be regime change. Which would require boots on the ground, either US or allies military, or an indiginous force capable of taking out the iranian leadership with air and other support from the allies before the political will weakens too much in western countries.
So, is it worth all this, all the blood and treasure that would possibly need to be expended to really put a stop on the iranian military nuclear program, in case diplomatic pressure and negotiations fail? I'm of the opinion that yes, it is, though I do admit that the people who have doubts about the matter do have some decent points as well.
