Gas Bandit's Political Thread V: The Vampire Likes Bats

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I know you're joking, but I had a friend from Taiwan and that's pretty much her sentiment. I never knew the term "mainland Chinese" before I heard her say it like it was a four-letter word. I wonder if I lost contact with her after my wedding because she found out my best friend is Chinese. Shit, I never thought of that before. That'd be horrible.
I'd like to tell you that isn't possible, but my best friend dated a Hong Kong girl, who was exactly like that. She only had nasty things to say, and even would make a point to tell tourists from mainland china to "fuck off and go home" in Cantonese. The relationship didn't last all that long. Nobody abuses, discriminates or is racist towards Asians like other Asians. It's why I've maintained that all things considered, racial relations in the U.S. are actually pretty awesome compared to the things I've seen/heard abroad.
 
PS - oh my lord, @Eriol. I can't believe how white your town is (was in 2006, anyway).
The place is so WASPy (White Anglo-Saxon Protestant for those that don't know the term) that it just about literally buzzes. Been "interesting" since I moved here. Nice people for the most part, but definitely disconnected from lots of stuff.


And ya, I had never heard the "hoteps" thing before. I only pointed out my size/sex/race because I'm the type that nobody EVER starts shit with, emphasizing the level of crazy in the original comments, not because I knew anything about the speakers' races. Given the context I suspected non-white (otherwise why would they be complaining about "white man's law" if they WERE white?), but you never know.
 

GasBandit

Staff member
I guess if Trump's elected I'll enjoy buying stuff from the US again when your dollar takes a hit.
Well, remember that a national poll of the popular vote means very little, actually, in the end. It's all about the distribution of electoral votes in the states, as John Quincy Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes, Benjamin Harrison, and George W. Bush can all attest.
 
Well, remember that a national poll of the popular vote means very little, actually, in the end. It's all about the distribution of electoral votes in the states, as John Quincy Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes, Benjamin Harrison, and George W. Bush can all attest.
I know, I'm just looking on the bright side in the off chance he does win. Somehow.
 
Well, it probably isn't quite that close, but even FiveThirtyEight has been talking about it tightening.
Last week 538 had Clinton's chance of winning at 87%, and today it's 70%. She took a huge hit, though she's still projected to win. However, she's still looking at 83% of the popular vote - suggesting that there's a good chance, if Trump wins, that he won't get the popularity, just the electoral. There's a 10% chance of that happening.

McMullin's losing ground in Utah to Trump, Trump, no doubt, is very unhappy he might lose there, and there are robocalls going out claiming McMullin is a closet homosexual (who knows? can't verify, though campaign denies), or pointing out that his parents are lesbians (true - but what of it?) in the hopes that they'll sway the religiously motivated against McMullin. So the ground gained there is probably one of the reasons Trump is going up, it's not completely the rehashing of the email server stuff.

I've seen a few posts on facebook (that I haven't read further than the headline), one suggesting a billionaire or two are pushing money into states where trump needs more votes and the race is close (ie, promoting trump) and another tech billionaire stumping for trump. These people have largely gone to ground since the hot mic recordings, but are now openly supporting trump and promoting him.

For my part the trump robocalls stopped over a month ago, but they were primarily fundraising. Given that Michigan is in the top 2 or 3 states projected, at this point, to have a significant impact on the election I wonder if it'll ramp up here again.

Also, let me just say that I'm very glad for adblock. I'm certain I'd be seeing campaign ads from both candidates on nearly every site if it wasn't for adblock.
 
Oddly enough, that ABC tracking poll also had Romney up +1 on Obama at a comparable date. Anyway, from what I understand tracking polls are less useful for determining who's winning, and more useful for seeing who's trending.
 
Well, it probably isn't quite that close, but even FiveThirtyEight has been talking about it tightening.
Of the various statistical modeling sites, 538 has actually been the most conservative (no pun intended) this year.

They may have got into the 85% chance of Clinton range, but at the time, PEC, Upshot, and PredictWise were all in the 90s. 538 currently has Clinton at 75%, Upshot and PredictWise are both still in the high 80s, and PEC is still at 97-99 Clinton because Sam Wang doesn't really believe in the concept of undecided likely voters or external factors, and has a model that tends to undervalue poll swings (in his defense, he's usually right, but still).[DOUBLEPOST=1478028060,1478027840][/DOUBLEPOST]
Oddly enough, that ABC tracking poll also had Romney up +1 on Obama at a comparable date. Anyway, from what I understand tracking polls are less useful for determining who's winning, and more useful for seeing who's trending.
This correct. Tracking polls always ask the same pool (as in quite literally the exact same group) of people in order to ascertain the direction of trends. It's not statistically invalid at all, but as a result, any sampling bias that is built into the original recruit will remain there through each wave of the survey.
 
I'm getting so tired of the gun ads.
"This November, if you vote carelessly, the Supreme Court will be polluted and your right to keep and bear arms will be infringed SO HARD. Visit this website for more info."
If the target audience is so paranoid that they think voting a certain way will scuttle their 2nd Amendment rights, wouldn't they also be worried that an untrusted website would infect them with a computer virus, give them cancer, and turn their sons gay?

--Patrick
 
Sorry, happened in Canada first nearly 50 years before the first one in the US and well before either were actually countries.

Ours is the REALER!

THE REALERLIST!
 
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