There is trouble in Iran

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drawn_inward

drawn_inward

My roommate is from Iran. I will have to ask his opinion on the situation. Hope it goes well for the people. People should not fear the government. Government should fear the people.
 
DarkAudit

DarkAudit

Following two massively contrasting gatherings. Millions in the streets in Iran, and 250K in Pittsburgh for the Cup celebration. Hard to reconcile the two. Especially as the situation in Tehran deteriorates.

Tweets saying the Baseej like to operate at night, enforcing order by brutality and intimidation. There are more *people* than there are Baseej. Use that. Zerg them into retreat.
 

This is amazing and troubling at the same time. All the major news outlets are failing while Twitter is seeming to be the only way to get information.
 
K

Kitty Sinatra

Allen said:
twitter is faster and isn't reliant on keeping people unoffended
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twitter is also gossip. Makes it more reliable than CNN, less reliable than The National Midnight Star (it's true!)
 
S

Steven Soderburgin

Word is that they were unprovoked attacks on peaceful protesters

this is terrible.
 
Allen who is Quiet

Allen who is Quiet

Gruebeard said:
twitter is also gossip. Makes it more reliable than CNN, less reliable than The National Midnight Star (it's true!)
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there are twitters of news organizations which help back up what some unofficial twitters are saying
 
DarkAudit

DarkAudit

Guys on motorbikes are useless when they're suddenly surrounded by several hundred or several thousand protesters. Use the numbers to stand up to the thugs. There's more of you than there are of them.
 
B

bhamv2

DarkAudit said:
Guys on motorbikes are useless when they're suddenly surrounded by several hundred or several thousand protesters. Use the numbers to stand up to the thugs. There's more of you than there are of them.
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When the guys on motorbikes have machine guns and aren't shy about spraying the crowds, then it takes some major guts to zerg the motorbikes.

Now guys, please don't jump down my throat for suggesting this, but is it possible you guys are jumping to conclusions too easily and accepting what you're reading too easily? Getting your news from Twitter feeds is akin to accumulating all your knowledge from Wikipedia. You don't know if what you're reading's actually true or not.

Now, I have no doubt the situation in Iran is very ugly, and my heartfelt best wishes go out to everyone there. Let me repeat that, in bold, in case anyone doubts it: I have no doubt the situation in Iran is very ugly, and my heartfelt best wishes go out to everyone there. But the Tweets and photos we're seeing are presenting a fairly one-sided view, and they're from supporters of the losing candidate, who have every reason to be biased.

I'm not saying we should ignore the violence and injustice going on in Iran right now. But it would be folly to assume we're getting the whole story at the moment.
 
GasBandit

GasBandit

Staff member
"The tree of liberty must from time to time be refreshed with the blood of patriots and tyrants." - Thomas Jefferson
 
C

Chibibar

bhamv2 said:
DarkAudit said:
Guys on motorbikes are useless when they're suddenly surrounded by several hundred or several thousand protesters. Use the numbers to stand up to the thugs. There's more of you than there are of them.
Click to expand...
When the guys on motorbikes have machine guns and aren't shy about spraying the crowds, then it takes some major guts to zerg the motorbikes.

Now guys, please don't jump down my throat for suggesting this, but is it possible you guys are jumping to conclusions too easily and accepting what you're reading too easily? Getting your news from Twitter feeds is akin to accumulating all your knowledge from Wikipedia. You don't know if what you're reading's actually true or not.

Now, I have no doubt the situation in Iran is very ugly, and my heartfelt best wishes go out to everyone there. Let me repeat that, in bold, in case anyone doubts it: I have no doubt the situation in Iran is very ugly, and my heartfelt best wishes go out to everyone there. But the Tweets and photos we're seeing are presenting a fairly one-sided view, and they're from supporters of the losing candidate, who have every reason to be biased.

I'm not saying we should ignore the violence and injustice going on in Iran right now. But it would be folly to assume we're getting the whole story at the moment.
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Yea. I understand the tweets are probably one sided, but remember that Iran is not really a "democracy" per se. They will use force if necessary and probably have no qualm spraying bullets into the crowd. That is what you get from military type rule.

Also if people (protester) get violent, the police/military are allow to use force if necessary.
 
B

bhamv2

GasBandit said:
"The tree of liberty must from time to time be refreshed with the blood of patriots and tyrants." - Thomas Jefferson
Click to expand...
"Patriotism is a virtue of the vicious." - Oscar Wilde

(I'm sorry, I just wanted to do that quoting thing from The Rock, I'll be quiet now, please don't hit me over the head)
 
K

Kitty Sinatra

"Gimme Puberty or gimme Breasts"

(I don't even think that makes sense, but there you have it.)
 
GasBandit

GasBandit

Staff member
bhamv2 said:
GasBandit said:
"The tree of liberty must from time to time be refreshed with the blood of patriots and tyrants." - Thomas Jefferson
Click to expand...
"Patriotism is a virtue of the vicious." - Oscar Wilde

(I'm sorry, I just wanted to do that quoting thing from The Rock, I'll be quiet now, please don't hit me over the head)
Click to expand...

 
W

WolfOfOdin

Well....


With Iran turning in on itself, this, from an American standpoint, removes one of the major roadblocks to pulling out of Iraq, which was the fear that Iran would sweep in and gulp up their old enemy in lockstep.

Hopefully the nation that emerges will be stronger, fairer and more humane than the old regimes of Iran's past.
 
Seraphyn

Seraphyn

WolfOfOdin said:
Hopefully the nation that emerges will be stronger, fairer and more humane than the old regimes of Iran's past.
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Doubtful, but we can hope.

More realistically, if this really becomes a coup the guy in charge just becomes a new dictator, just like the last time Iran overthrew the government. So in order to truly succeed either NATO or the UN need to get involved. Being stretched out over Iraq/Afghanistan atm that'll most likely not really come off the ground in time.

If they do manage it somehow, awesome.
 
S

Singularity.EXE

Are you frakking kidding me Twitter?

We will have 90 mins of maintenance starting at 9:45p Pacific today, June 15.
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Look, I know you have your business to look after, but you have a fucking REVOLUTION being broad casted over your service. You should be *encouraging* this, you should be helping them!

This is the time to shine Twitter! Don't fucking fail!
 
Espy

Espy

Rob King said:
If it comes out in the next 20 years that all of this is CIA false flag action, a la 1953, I might have to join Al Queida.
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You know, you should just assume that and go for it. See how it works out for you.
 
Charlie Don't Surf

Charlie Don't Surf

The only thing I can think is that it might be a necessary maintenance based on twitter getting hit/used exceptionally hard the last few days. Or maybe doing something/changing something to help the Iranians use twitter more easily?
 
sixpackshaker

sixpackshaker

I doubt the nation responsible for much of the destabilization of the Mid-East is going down with out a fight. All those camps of Hezbollah and Al Queida will likely get emptied to help stamp out any sense of freedom in that nation. At least they will wreak havoc in Iran as they have in Iraq for the last six years.
 
Rob King

Rob King

sixpackshaker said:
I doubt the nation responsible for much of the destabilization of the Mid-East is going down with out a fight. All those camps of Hezbollah and Al Queida will likely get emptied to help stamp out any sense of freedom in that nation. At least they will wreak havoc in Iran as they have in Iraq for the last six years.
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The difference between Iran and Iraq is that the Americans rolled in and kicked over the government in Iraq. We can argue about whether that was a good call or a bad call until the cows come home, but the simple fact is that in Iraq it was foreigners who lead to the downfall. In Iran it looks like it's the citizens who are responsible, so terrorists have already lost the 'We're fighting the foreign oppressors' card.
 
S

Singularity.EXE

Rob King said:
sixpackshaker said:
I doubt the nation responsible for much of the destabilization of the Mid-East is going down with out a fight. All those camps of Hezbollah and Al Queida will likely get emptied to help stamp out any sense of freedom in that nation. At least they will wreak havoc in Iran as they have in Iraq for the last six years.
Click to expand...
The difference between Iran and Iraq is that the Americans rolled in and kicked over the government in Iraq. We can argue about whether that was a good call or a bad call until the cows come home, but the simple fact is that in Iraq it was foreigners who lead to the downfall. In Iran it looks like it's the citizens who are responsible, so terrorists have already lost the 'We're fighting the foreign oppressors' card.
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Which is why (presumably) the West is hesitant to lend their voices here. If they speak up on behalf of the rioters than they're trying to impose their will in Iran like Iraq. If they don't speak up they are called out for ignoring the tumultuous situation.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
 
Rob King

Rob King

Singularity.EXE said:
[quote="Rob King":1hddi2h8]
sixpackshaker said:
I doubt the nation responsible for much of the destabilization of the Mid-East is going down with out a fight. All those camps of Hezbollah and Al Queida will likely get emptied to help stamp out any sense of freedom in that nation. At least they will wreak havoc in Iran as they have in Iraq for the last six years.
Click to expand...
The difference between Iran and Iraq is that the Americans rolled in and kicked over the government in Iraq. We can argue about whether that was a good call or a bad call until the cows come home, but the simple fact is that in Iraq it was foreigners who lead to the downfall. In Iran it looks like it's the citizens who are responsible, so terrorists have already lost the 'We're fighting the foreign oppressors' card.
Click to expand...
Which is why (presumably) the West is hesitant to lend their voices here. If they speak up on behalf of the rioters than they're trying to impose their will in Iran like Iraq. If they don't speak up they are called out for ignoring the tumultuous situation.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.[/quote:1hddi2h8]

That AND, there's already enough Anti-American sentiment in the country. If they declare their support for one party, and the other party ends up victorious, it'll be that much more difficult to build (or re-build) friendly relations.

But I think someone else already said something to that effect here.
 
I

Iaculus

Remind me - the Baseej are the 'veterans'/pro-government thugs, right?
 
Enresshou

Enresshou

Iaculus said:
Remind me - the Baseej are the 'veterans'/pro-government thugs, right?
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Courtesy of Tastuma from Fark:

Tatsuma said:
Currently, there are three groups who are suppressing the students on the ground:

1. The Basij
2. Ansar Hizbullah (which I will refer to as Ansar)
3. Lebanese Hizbullah (which I will refer to as Hizbullah)

- The Basij are your regular paramilitary organization. They are the armed hand of the clerics. The Basij are a legal group, officially a student union, and are legally under direct orders of the Revolutionary Guard. Their main raison d'être is to quell dissent. They are the ones who go and crack skulls, force people to participate in pro-regime demonstrations, and generally try to stop any demonstrations from even starting. They are basically located throughout the country, in every mosque, every university, every social club you can think of. They function in a way very similar to the brown shirts.

They were the ones who first started the crackdown after the election but it wasn't enough. While they are violent and repressive, they are still Persian and attacking fellow citizens. A beating is one thing, mass killings another.

- Another group was working with them, who are even more extreme, is Ansar. There is a lot of cross-membership between the Basij and Ansar, though not all members are members of the other group and vice-versa. The vast majority of Ansar are Persians (either Basij or ex-military), though a lot of Arab recruits come from Lebanon and train with them under supervision of the Revolutionary Guard. They are not a legal group, they are considered pretty much a vigilante group, but they pledge loyalty directly to the Supreme Leader and most people believe that they are under his control. They are currently helping the Basij to control the riots, but due to the fact that they are Persians and in lower numbers than the Basij, they are not that active.

- Hizbullah flew in a lot of their members in Iran, most likely a good deal even before the elections in case there were trouble. They are the ones who speak Arabs and are unleashing the biggest level of violence on the Persians so far. Another wave arrived recently and there is chatter that yet another wave of Hizbullah reinforcements are coming in from Lebanon as we speak. The Lebanese Hizbullah is a direct offshoot (and under direct control) of the Iranian Hizbullah (itself under direct control of the Supreme Leader) and cooperates closely with Ansar though Ansar occupies itself only with Iran's domestic policies, while Hizbullah occupies itself only with Iran's foreign policy unless there is a crisis like right now. They are the ones riding motorcycles, beating men women and children indiscriminately and firing live ammunitions at students.

Unless the army decides to intervene in the favor of the Council and to stop the (what now looks like) early beginnings of the new Revolution, Hizbullah members will be the ones doing the brunt of the killing and repression with Ansar as a support, while the Basij hit people with sticks, protect government sites and try to do crowd control (as the police seems to have for the most part disbanded in centers like Tehran, according to most twitter feeds. If the police has no disbanded, they will focus less on protection and crowd control, and more on cracking skulls).

Hope that helps
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Also, as for Obama, I think the most prudent position to take would be neutrality with voiced support for human rights. The whole "US interference in public policy" seems to be a sensitive issue over in Iran, and I've got the impression that US support of one group--in addition to not being expressly welcome/providing fuel for the other side--could also lead to more difficult talks down the line in case the "wrong" party wins.

Then again, I know very little about Middle Eastern history, so feel free to tell me to STFU.
 
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