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Scarlet Varlet
Guardian Council have looked into a recount. This is their result.
There is trouble in Iran
- Thread starter Charlie Don't Surf
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This is fucking stupid.Scarlet Varlet said:Guardian Council have looked into a recount. This is their result.
I laffed.Scarlet Varlet said:
Seriously, after reading a few articles on politics in Iran, a few defending the official results of the election, I'm not entirely sure about the claims about a rigged election. But it hasn't really been about that for a few days now. It's been about the crackdown.
I wonder. Regardless of the true or false results of the election, could it be a good thing that all of this outrage is coming out? Even if it happens that the election wasn't rigged, and Ahdaminijad did win, maybe challenging it was a good call.
I dunno. I'm just sort of thinking on my keyboard here now.
The only really interesting thing about this whole mess is that people are starting to question Supreme Ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei instead of just blaming the President.
Seriously??General Fuzzy McBitty said:
Well, that's the only thing that I really find interesting. The President doesn't have that much power in a system that is ruled by a corrupt counsel & a "supreme ruler."
All other things aside, this is, once again, time for one of those sleep dep moments of mine where I'll say something everyone is going to misunderstand and call me names over. I'm not actually as ignorant as I appear to be.
Anyway.
Ignoring what's happening in Iran now - which is a Good Thing for a number of reasons - this does show something you see over and over again in a LOT of countries that didn't gradually ease into democracy or go there of their own accord. That is, Russia, most of the Arabian world, most of Africa, large parts of Central Asia (all the -stans, basically). No matter what the results of an election are, the other side (yes, usually the opposition, and I'l even throw in that they're probably right half the time) cries "corruption", demands recounts, and starts something between peaceful protests that devolve into state-sponsored violence and a violent uprising that ends in semi-genocide. See the elections in Congo in the 90s, see this one, see Botswana, see Zimbabwe, see Kazakhstan, see...
Seriously. I'm absoutely anti-imperialistic and anti-neo-colonialistic, but sometimes I think somebody needs to get these people ot understand that, you know, if you can get 1,000,000 people to protest in favour of you, in a country of 30,000,000, this doesn't mean you obviously won the elections and the other side was defrauding the whole thing. You might just have lost and have a vocal support base. Try changing something inside the system, instead of necessarily trying to overthrow the system and more likely than not, instate yourself as the new supreme leaders who'll screw things over slowly in much the same way.
Iran's history is actually a lesson in this, partly. Some things *have* changed there...and changed right back, which I suppose is a bad thing, but still. Not everywhere and always is it possible to change the system from within (think Myanmar, North Korea, probably China) but it seems like the resistance in few countries even bothers to try anymore.
Anyway.
Ignoring what's happening in Iran now - which is a Good Thing for a number of reasons - this does show something you see over and over again in a LOT of countries that didn't gradually ease into democracy or go there of their own accord. That is, Russia, most of the Arabian world, most of Africa, large parts of Central Asia (all the -stans, basically). No matter what the results of an election are, the other side (yes, usually the opposition, and I'l even throw in that they're probably right half the time) cries "corruption", demands recounts, and starts something between peaceful protests that devolve into state-sponsored violence and a violent uprising that ends in semi-genocide. See the elections in Congo in the 90s, see this one, see Botswana, see Zimbabwe, see Kazakhstan, see...
Seriously. I'm absoutely anti-imperialistic and anti-neo-colonialistic, but sometimes I think somebody needs to get these people ot understand that, you know, if you can get 1,000,000 people to protest in favour of you, in a country of 30,000,000, this doesn't mean you obviously won the elections and the other side was defrauding the whole thing. You might just have lost and have a vocal support base. Try changing something inside the system, instead of necessarily trying to overthrow the system and more likely than not, instate yourself as the new supreme leaders who'll screw things over slowly in much the same way.
Iran's history is actually a lesson in this, partly. Some things *have* changed there...and changed right back, which I suppose is a bad thing, but still. Not everywhere and always is it possible to change the system from within (think Myanmar, North Korea, probably China) but it seems like the resistance in few countries even bothers to try anymore.
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Scarlet Varlet
Interesting considerations, Bubble, though the expectations of reform were high, I truly believe a lot of the anger is over the crude and sloppy way the Ministry of the Interior (and whomever else was party to this) fixed the election are what have drawn so much ire.
Here's the MoI spreadsheet if you wish to examine it yourself.
Prior protests haven't been a shade on what is transpiring now. When the government calls up it's own support they come in the 10's of thousands. Many of them are bussed in. So if you favour the status quo and have the protection of the government, plus a free bus ride at the behest of the Supreme Leader, why are your numbers so low? So low that the government has to 'shop the photo to increase teh apparent size.
Various theories I've heard kicked around are the Revolutionary Guard are behind this and are playing to control all the strings or the MoI, Amadinejad, the Guardian Council, Grand Ayatollah Khamenei and various other 'hardliners' have staged the coup to keep Iran a Revolutionary State (with all that entails), where Mousavi favours Post-Revolutionary. Whichever, there are clearly strong splits and polarisation within the 30-year old Regime and the majority of the population was born after the 1979 revolution and would prefer to ditch the headscarves, listen to western pop music openly and not have their skulls cracked for voicing dissatisfaction with the way things are.
I think should things eventually result with tipping in their favour they'll have to reshape the government and remove some of these pretzel twists which give people power who haven't been elected. Even Mousavi may think that's going a bit far.
Here's the MoI spreadsheet if you wish to examine it yourself.
Prior protests haven't been a shade on what is transpiring now. When the government calls up it's own support they come in the 10's of thousands. Many of them are bussed in. So if you favour the status quo and have the protection of the government, plus a free bus ride at the behest of the Supreme Leader, why are your numbers so low? So low that the government has to 'shop the photo to increase teh apparent size.
Various theories I've heard kicked around are the Revolutionary Guard are behind this and are playing to control all the strings or the MoI, Amadinejad, the Guardian Council, Grand Ayatollah Khamenei and various other 'hardliners' have staged the coup to keep Iran a Revolutionary State (with all that entails), where Mousavi favours Post-Revolutionary. Whichever, there are clearly strong splits and polarisation within the 30-year old Regime and the majority of the population was born after the 1979 revolution and would prefer to ditch the headscarves, listen to western pop music openly and not have their skulls cracked for voicing dissatisfaction with the way things are.
I think should things eventually result with tipping in their favour they'll have to reshape the government and remove some of these pretzel twists which give people power who haven't been elected. Even Mousavi may think that's going a bit far.
Had they given some areas to Mousavi and had Amadinejad only winning by a few percentage points none of this would have happened.
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Scarlet Varlet
Oh, no doubt. If they had made Amadi win by a modest margin and done a better job rigging together the turnout for areas they would have only faced a brief protest as they did in 2005. Clearly whomever said, "Make up a spreadsheet", didn't plan carefully or take the necessary time. Probably like a load of burglars they threw it together desperately and stupidly. Very telling in the intellect of those who plotted the rigging.Edrondol said:
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Kitty Sinatra
I don't know where you're from (and thus how you vote) but paper ballots don't take long to count. That's all that's used in Canada and we get our results announced within a couple hours of polls closing . . . in Ontario. Hell, people are still voting in British Columbia when the networks announce the winner. Those are statistical projections and not final counts, obviously, but within 24 hours they're all counted. Iran's greater number of voters won't matter because you just have more people counting. So that doesn't make this look at all fishy.@Li3n said:
Keeping the opposition (and presumably foreign observers) out of the voting areas does, however.
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Kitty Sinatra
As I said, all our votes are counted within 24 hours.
But I'm agreeing with you limiting the oversight of that count makes it looks rigged.
But I'm agreeing with you limiting the oversight of that count makes it looks rigged.
I couldn't read the numbers on the timestamp. :tongue:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8108661.stm
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is basically saying, "Knock it off with the protesting before I kick your ass."
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is basically saying, "Knock it off with the protesting before I kick your ass."
I just wonder how far this will go. They had protest similar to this over the years. So far this is the biggest one. Usually they vent their rage and then go back to the status quo.
This, however, is a very Western point of view, and far from entirely correct. A lot - according to observers, most - protestors still want an Islamic democracy, adn don't want to give up the Shari'ah as the law or try and begin a seperation of church and state. They're not as conservative, but they're still very pro-Iran and pro-Islam. You haven't seen anyone burning Iranian flags or bras or scarves, have you? No, you haven't, except for some very, very small minorities shunned by the protestors themselves just as much as by the rest.Scarlet Varlet said:
They want to keep the same government - just with a president they voted for, not the one that stole the election.
No, they did not want the government that they have. They did not want it 30 years ago. They wanted Democracy/Self Determination. Instead they got hosed by the elite religious class. They just know it is too dangerous to call for the scrapping of this current system. Every election the people vote for the most reform minded of the cherry picked candidates that have to be on the same page as the ruling mullahs.Edrondol said:
Fixed it for you.Bubble181 said:
I've been following this pretty regularly. Those interviewed say that they don't want regime change. They point out that that's something the West gets right.sixpackshaker said:
I know what you're going to say about coerced statements or fear of reprisal, but the reports I'm hearing are backing that up.
But as neither of us are Iranians, we're kind of talking out of our asses.
AshburnerX said:
You don't know that. 20 years is all there isbetween Tsarist Russia and Bolsjewik Russia; early 1900s booming Germany with the strongest economy in the world and 1920 defeated broken destroyed Germany; between 1948 Israel's founding as a modern state after WWII and Israel being the strongest power in the Middle East after defeating all oposition in the six day war; between Apartheid South Africa and now; and the list goes on. 20 years is a bloody long time (and, unfortunately, in most of these cases a long and bloody time).
It's entirely possible that today's events are the first moves in a nation-changing revolution ending in Iran being a truly modern democratic state on a similar level to some of Eastern Europe now. I wouldn't count on it, but you never know. 200 years is, frankly, a ridiculously long time to think this sort of thing will last - considering history has that odd tendency to be forever increasing in speed.
I am pretty close to several Iranians, closest is Sis-in-Law and her family. The Shah was overthrown because he was a despot that was infringing on the rights of the people. The Mullahs are as brutal as Reza Pahlavi ever dreamed of being. They hated America because we put that 'king' on the throne, but expected to get European levels of freedom after the Revolution. Damn few really wanted the mullahs in their everyday life.
Then I withdraw. I know only a couple of Iranians and we are by no means close and have never discussed politics. You may be right but the interviews I heard were not the same - much as if you interviewed a large cross-section of the US you'd get differing views.
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Chibibar
Here is my question.
Why even vote for a president when they have a Supreme Leader that you can't remove (unless a revolution) and High council (life term clerics) that cannot be remove and oversee EVERYTHING. Basically no checks and balance at all.
Why even bother to vote?
Why even vote for a president when they have a Supreme Leader that you can't remove (unless a revolution) and High council (life term clerics) that cannot be remove and oversee EVERYTHING. Basically no checks and balance at all.
Why even bother to vote?
A dozen or so ex-pats is not a wide sample. Of course they were also fairly well off, The dad was an accountant for an American Oil company. He also belonged to a family that kept Zoroastrianism alive for the millennium since the Arab invasion and the destruction of the Persian culture. The country was growing very dangerous over the last couple of years of the Shah's reign. So he came across I believe around '75. Then brought his wife and daughters over around '77. Being from a Zoroastrian family at that time was kinda like being a Jew in Germany in '36, you could see that trouble brewing.
Another Father in law of one of my bro's was Air Force Intel right before the revolution too, his story was fairly similar.
The poor shepherds and religious types do back the gov't, but the middle class, students and old wealth are scared of the mullahs.
-- Fri Jun 19, 2009 2:30 pm --
But instead of being dishearten, I think they vote to give a big middle finger up to the powers that be. After all some one will count the actual votes.
Another Father in law of one of my bro's was Air Force Intel right before the revolution too, his story was fairly similar.
The poor shepherds and religious types do back the gov't, but the middle class, students and old wealth are scared of the mullahs.
-- Fri Jun 19, 2009 2:30 pm --
It is kinda like why our system has such low turn out. The two parties are very similar except for a handful of social/cultural issues.Chibibar said:
But instead of being dishearten, I think they vote to give a big middle finger up to the powers that be. After all some one will count the actual votes.
Yep, systems like Iran's or the US' are sad examples of that.GasBandit said:
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Chibibar
Sadly I have to agree that the U.S. system is "kinda" similar in terms of two party system and electoral college. I mean we DO have the tech to do pure democracy but then the two party system might not be two party anymore. Sure you have other parties, but I don't see them in the President's chair anytime soon.Denbrought said:
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