Coronavirus Thread

bhamv3

bhamv3

So Taiwan's now down to around 20-30 local infections a day. As a result we're loosening up some of the restrictions. For me, this mainly means that working from home has ended for everyone in my company, so we're all back in the office now, and all my coworkers are all just as hot as before.

Currently I have no idea how things are going to turn out. The pessimist in me suspects the number of cases will rise again, and we'll be yo-yoing between locking down and not locking down, as many other regions have experienced. But hey, I've been wrong before.
 
Frank

Frank

Well, the numbers in Alberta are bad again, rising just as quickly as they did with the 3rd wave.

In response to this our government announced that those who test positive no longer have to isolate.
 
blotsfan

blotsfan

Frank said:
Well, the numbers in Alberta are bad again, rising just as quickly as they did with the 3rd wave.

In response to this our government announced that those who test positive no longer have to isolate.
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I'm no epidemiologist, but this seems backwards.
 
PatrThom

PatrThom

Me, posting July 4th wkd USA results showing 3.5% positive test rate.
Me, posting July 18th USA results showing 7.6% positive test rate.
Me, posting July 26th USA results:
elebben.png


Yes, that's right. We're up to ~11% now, which is 1 in every 9 tests coming back as positive.

--Patrick
 
MindDetective

MindDetective

PatrThom said:
Me, posting July 4th wkd USA results showing 3.5% positive test rate.
Me, posting July 18th USA results showing 7.6% positive test rate.
Me, posting July 26th USA results:
View attachment 38445

Yes, that's right. We're up to ~11% now, which is 1 in every 9 tests coming back as positive.

--Patrick
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I don't like the percentage rate as the measure here, even if the number of tests has remained stable. If tests are being administered in a more targeted fashion, this is exactly what would happen.
 
figmentPez

figmentPez

Staff member
MindDetective said:
I don't like the percentage rate as the measure here, even if the number of tests has remained stable. If tests are being administered in a more targeted fashion, this is exactly what would happen.
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Earlier in the Pandemic the pandemic I heard multiple epidemiologists talking about what positive test rates mean, and one of the points that got addressed repeatedly is that the positive percentage is not a measure of how widespread the disease is, it's a measure of how good a job they're doing at tracking it. Positive test rates under about 10% indicate that they're doing a good job of tracking the disease. Positive test rates over 10% show increasing levels of uncertainty in how far/fast it's spreading.
 
PatrThom

PatrThom

MindDetective said:
As I said, that is not a necessary conclusion. The measure of percentage obfuscates some critical information that enables us to draw that very conlusion.
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Can you elaborate? I realize that the percentage of positive cases is likely to be more of a lagging indicator, since I am assuming the majority of tests being administered are to people who didn't come in until they started to display symptoms, which means they could've potentially been asymptomatically infected for 1-2wks prior. What critical data are being obscured?

--Patrick
 
MindDetective

MindDetective

PatrThom said:
Can you elaborate? I realize that the percentage of positive cases is likely to be more of a lagging indicator, since I am assuming the majority of tests being administered are to people who didn't come in until they started to display symptoms, which means they could've potentially been asymptomatically infected for 1-2wks prior. What critical data are being obscured?

--Patrick
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Methodology and number of tests administered, for two. If you start targeting only people with symptoms, your hit rate will go up. If you blanket test, your hit rate goes down. It is a classic signal detection problem, which is impacted by all kinds of variables that increase or decrease noise or boost/attenuate the signal.
 
figmentPez

figmentPez

Staff member
PatrThom said:
Number keep going up week after week = bad.
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That number only has meaning in conjunction with other numbers. Since the number of confirmed cases is also going up, then it's bad. If the number of cases were going down, then it wouldn't mean much unless it were to continue to rise past 10% (assuming I have correct information about what percentage of positive tests indicates uncertain tracking of the spread.)
 
Tiger Tsang

Tiger Tsang

Yep, the local Health Dept put out a notice that infections from the first week of July to this/last week went from 7 to 71. I just wish 'Muricans and their screeching about their FREEDOMS!!! didn't their use their FREE DUMBS.
 
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Far

Far

Ų̷̨̟̺̟̬̜̻̦̉͆̓̔p̴̡͙̼̮̩̖͉̺̠̙͑̃̿͆̕g̶̡̢̖͇̻̥̥̥̠͎̤̀͑̈́̍̚r̵̮̜̠̲̹͕̄̄̊̈́͂͂̀̔͊̓̕͝ą̸̢̘̮̼̮̼͈̅̑̅̈́̈́̽́͘͝d̵̯̲̋͌͒͠͝ę̷̡̗̲͈͈͚̭̾͗̍̍́͑̓ ̵̨̨̧̮̭͕̫̲͉͙̞̝̋͐̾͛̀̀̀̏͝ͅĆ̷̢̢̛̦͉̼̦̺́̑̌́̿͗̄͝o̶̦͕̲̤͙̱͉͍̪͓̿͗̊͂̆̃́́̄̊͑͒͘͝m̸͔̗̐̄͐̄͝͠p̴͓̀̒͑͝͝l̴̡̨͍̤͙̥̞̱̄͌͒̌̈́̈́̐͛̐̾͘͠ē̵̢̡̹̲̩̳͓͒͝t̶̡͕͓͈̤͓̝̫̫̗͔̹̔e̷̖̘͂͒̈́͛͝
 
Bubble181

Bubble181

Far said:
Ų̷̨̟̺̟̬̜̻̦̉͆̓̔p̴̡͙̼̮̩̖͉̺̠̙͑̃̿͆̕g̶̡̢̖͇̻̥̥̥̠͎̤̀͑̈́̍̚r̵̮̜̠̲̹͕̄̄̊̈́͂͂̀̔͊̓̕͝ą̸̢̘̮̼̮̼͈̅̑̅̈́̈́̽́͘͝d̵̯̲̋͌͒͠͝ę̷̡̗̲͈͈͚̭̾͗̍̍́͑̓ ̵̨̨̧̮̭͕̫̲͉͙̞̝̋͐̾͛̀̀̀̏͝ͅĆ̷̢̢̛̦͉̼̦̺́̑̌́̿͗̄͝o̶̦͕̲̤͙̱͉͍̪͓̿͗̊͂̆̃́́̄̊͑͒͘͝m̸͔̗̐̄͐̄͝͠p̴͓̀̒͑͝͝l̴̡̨͍̤͙̥̞̱̄͌͒̌̈́̈́̐͛̐̾͘͠ē̵̢̡̹̲̩̳͓͒͝t̶̡͕͓͈̤͓̝̫̫̗͔̹̔e̷̖̘͂͒̈́͛͝
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Welcome to the Collective. Remember, when confronting the unvaxed, their resistance is futile. They will be assimilated.
 
Tress

Tress

Bubble181 said:
Welcome to the Collective. Remember, when confronting the unvaxed, their resistance is futile. They will be assimilated.
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God, I wish this was true. The damn pandemic would actually be getting better if this was the case. It’s more like:

“Remember, when confronting the unvaxed, their right to be selfish is more important than public safety. They will screw everything up for the rest of us.”
 
Frank

Frank

Saskatchewan joined on the Alberta train no longer requiring isolation after a positive test.

Jesus Christ the prairies are an embarrassment.
 
Tress

Tress

I have a cough and a 100 degree temperature. All this despite being vaccinated with Pfizer and wearing my mask everywhere, even when it’s not required. I’m currently waiting for test results to get back.

Curse anyone who could have gotten the vaccine but didn’t. Fuck.

EDIT: The OTC test came back negative. If I feel better by tomorrow I’ll assume it’s accurate. If I don’t feel better, I’ll get the more accurate test ASAP.
 
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